Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 14th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny this weekend- S swell magnets may have a rideable wave Sat
• W-NW winds Sat, tending S’ly on Sun
• Small S swell pulse Mon
• Small surf continues into next week, possible traces of E/NE swell filtering down from Coral Sea from mid week
• Front pushing into Tasman brings small S swell pulse Wed next week
• Winter pattern of W’ly winds and small/tiny S swells looks set to continue 

Recap

Groundhog Day conditions with small, clean S swells offering up fun surf at S swell magnets- not much elsewhere. Yesterday still had a few 3ft sets, 4ft on the Hunter, clean under NW winds. Easing surf today with a few inconsistent 2-3ft sets at swell magnets and tiny elsewhere as energy ebbs away. 

Groundhog Day with small, clean options on the Hunter. Not much elsewhere.

This weekend (July 15-16)

No change to the weekend f/cast. Blocking high pressure in the Central Tasman has a ridge up the QLD Coast, with weak pressure gradients across NSW leading to pre-frontal N-NW winds. 

Expect W-NW winds Sat tending N’ly.

Sunday sees early W’lies shift SW, then S-SE as a change and ridge pushes through, likely by mid-morning.

Not much surf on offer either day. A few traces of longer period S swell Sat may see some inconsistent 1-2ft energy a the best S swell magnets. Tiny elsewhere.

Tiny surf extends into Sun with a chance of some short range S’ly windswell to 1-2ft in the a’noon after the wind change. Desperadoes only. 

Next week (July 17 onwards)

High pressure slips East of Sydney on Mon, bringing settled conditions with a morning offshore flow likely to tend NE in the a’noon as the high moves quickly into the Tasman. A modest bump in S swell trains should see some 2ft sets at S facing beaches, 3ft on the Hunter. 

Winds look to tend N’ly again Tues, trending more NW through the day as a front approaches. Not much size expected as Mondays small pulse fades away, with a few 2ft sets drying up through the day. 

We’ll see some rapid wind shifts mid week as a front races through the Tasman, bringing S’lies Wed, likely tending SSE-SE as a high pressure ridge quickly builds in the wake of the front. Wave models aren’t really interested in much swell action resulting from this front.

We’ll take the cool option and keep expectations low, with a minor increase in S swell possible Wed into Thurs. Topping out at 2-3ft again at S facing beaches. Hopefully we might be able to provide a modest upgrade when we come back on Mon.

In the mix should be some minor E/NE swell 1-2ft top filtering down from a persistent tradewind fetch in the Coral Sea. Ordinarily we wouldn’t bother with this, but in the circumstances it may be a surfable option on high volume boards next week. 

Surf retreats back to tiny levels towards the end of next week into the weekend- with just minor E/NE swell likely to keep wave heights above flat. Another approaching low below the continent later next week is better aimed for the Southern States and likely to dissipate and be steered southwards as it approaches the Tasman Sea swell window. Only minor S swell is likely to make it around the corner.

Not much to get frothed up about, unfortunately.

Check back Mon and we’ll see if anything has changed.

Until then, have a great weekend!