A few options on the weekend if you can work around wind shifts- typical Spring pattern ahead next week

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 11th Nov)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • Fun E’ly tradewind style swell perks up a notch Thurs, holds Fri with light/mod E to NE winds
  • Fun, easing E swell Sat with flukey winds- SW/NW early with a weak S-SSE change then SE in the a’noon
  • Last pulse of E-E/SE swell Sun with early light winds increasing N’ly in the a’noon, easing into Mon
  • NE windswell spike Sun PM, peaking Mon AM, easing Mon PM as winds tend NW-W
  • Small S swell likely Tues
  • Small S swell pulses Wed-Fri, biggest Thurs- revisions likely, check back Mon for updates

Recap

Peaky, E’ly quadrant tradewind style swell perked up a notch yesterday with some sets to 3ft with early light land breezes which tended E to NE through the a’noon. There’s still a few 3ft sets around this morning, albeit slow and inconsistent and a bit lumpy under a variable flow which is now tending N/NE. Wasn’t a great week but there was usually enough to ride each day. 

Still a few fun waves to be had before the N'ly kicked up

This weekend (Nov12-13)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. The weak, troughy S’ly change looks to reach the Illawarra by 8am, Sydney basin by 9-10 and closer to lunch-time on the Hunter. Don’t take those times as gospel- these weak troughs can stall or speed- up and times can change but they will be reasonable marks to use as guidelines.

Surf will be easing through tomorrow with leftover sets to 2ft with the odd bigger one. Expect clean and soft surf early before the S’ly, with S/SE winds establishing through the a’noon. Latest period charts show the pulse of E/SE swell gendered by a fetch off the West Coast showing right around dark. Have a squizz in the hr before dark but keep expectations low- Sunday remains the better bet.

E/SE swell is still on track for Sun, albeit a bit downgraded compared to earlier predictions. Expect mid period E/SE swell to supply some 3ft sets, likely with a few bigger bombs from time to time. Early light winds should tend W/NW to NW before quickly switching N to NE and freshening, becoming strong and gusty through the a’noon as a N’ly fetch extends up into sub-tropical latitudes and thickens. E/SE swell will ease through the a’noon, as NE windswell starts to build into the 2-3ft range.

Bit of a funky weekend but there will be a few waves on hand if you can work with the wind shifts.

Next week (Nov14 onwards)

We’re still looking at NE windswell Mon morning, with size in the 2-3ft range, bigger 3ft on the Hunter and conditions rapidly improving as a cut-off low and advancing trough bring NW then W’ly winds through the morning. Expect size to rapidly ease through the a’noon as the fetch gets shunted eastwards.

Small surf Tues as W’ly winds blow and groom the ocean close to flat. A Bass Strait fetch later Mon should provide some small refracted S swell later Tues, likely missing the South Coast-Illawarra stretch and showing from Sydney to the Hunter with some 2-3ft sets in the a’noon.

We’re looking at a complicated synoptic set-up from Wed next week with multiple small low pressure troughs off the NSW Coast and the remnants of a cut-off low which tracks SE into the Tasman as it weakens. This cut-off low remant with a compact fetch of gales should see a small pulse of S swell Wed with some sets to 2ft at S facing beaches under a W/SW flow that is likely to tend SW-SSW as one of the troughy areas winds up through Wed. 

With an advancing high tightening the pressure gradient with the Tasman Sea troughs (possibly amalgamating into a single low pressure) we’re likely to see increasing S’lies through Thurs and increasing S’ly swell, mostly of a local, and scrappy variety. Pencil in size in the 3ft range through the a’noon, with size increasing into Fri under current modelling.

The trough of low pressure is expected to rapidly move East with a weak high pressure ridge setting in Fri into next weekend with easing swells expected.

Longer term we see another mid-latitude cut-off low approaching with N’ly winds expected to freshen in advance of this system.

The recent pattern has been for these cut-off lows to track SE and weaken rapidly as they enter the Tasman Sea swell window, reducing S swell potential. 

We’ll flag that as the most likely outcome and see how it’s shaping up on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!