Tons of size ahead from Sun with winds an issue- Saturday cleaner

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 8th July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • Easing in size Fri (still solid) with improved winds- WSW-SW for most places in the f/cast region
  • Smaller but clean Sat AM, building directional S swell favouring Syd-Hunter in the PM,  under morning W’ly winds tending SW in the PM
  • Strong S/SE groundswell Sun, biggest in the PM, with fresh S to SSE winds
  • Size holding Mon with winds still an issue. Likely SW inshore early, tending S-SSW and easing in the a’noon
  • Clean, with easing but still sizey surf Tues
  • More S swell later Thurs, as cold fronts push into the Tasman
  • Likely easing trend into next weekend
  • Dynamic, troughy outlook continues, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Surf started to ease back a notch through Thursday, although still solid 6ft on the sets and winds veered around to the SW-SSW, allowing some more protected spots to shine, especially in the a’noon. We’re seeing a more settled day today with a true offshore wind and plenty of size still in the 4-6ft range with an easing trend. Swell is a blend of dominant SE, with some S swell trains mixed in. Sunshine was also sighted, which made for an uplifting vista after a miserable week of rain for temperate NSW.

Still plenty of size and corduroy Fri morning, with sunshine!

This weekend (July 9-10)

No great changes to the weekend f/cast, although some tweaks to the wind outlook.

We are still under the influence of a slow moving, complex Tasman Low (formerly ECL), a strong high in the Bight and a weak trough/low forming near Tasmania. The new trough/low is generating gales out of Bass Strait and up towards the South Coast. The main low is drifting towards the South Island and intensifying today, with gales to severe gales expected to retrograde NW back into the Tasman Sea (see below), generating a large swell for Sun/Mon. 

Saturday will be prior to this pulse so we are looking at a blend of S’ly quarter swells with offshore winds generated by the position of the low/high combination. Expect surf in the 3ft range early at S facing beaches, with an increasing amount of mid-period refracted S swell up into the 3-4ft range during the a’noon, bigger 3-5ft on the Hunter and likely not significant from the Illawarra to South Coast. Early W winds are likely to swing more SW through the a’noon, scuffing up the more exposed S facing coastlines.

We’ll see surf get very solid Sun, as long period SSE swell builds in from the retrograding low near the South Island. Unfortunately, winds will be a major fly in the ointment. The advancing high and retrograding low now push a strong ridge along the NSW temperate coast up to as far as Seal Rocks. That means stiff S to SSE winds are expected Sun.

Size will be significant. At least 4-6ft at first light, building in steadily through the day, and getting north of 10-12ft at exposed breaks during the a’noon. Bommies through the late a’noon could easily see 12-15ft sets but it’ll be hard to find one not severely wind affected. Protected breaks will be the most likely options Sun a’noon and they will be smaller, although still with significant size.

Next week (July 11 onwards)

Sundays pulse extends into Mon with plenty of size, although down a notch on Sunday a’noon’s peak. We’ll still see solid 10ft surf at S exposed breaks Mon morning. Surface conditions are still likely to be affected by Sundays winds and a lingering S’ly flow about the coast. Even with a morning SW tendency it will still have plenty of lump and bump in it. Size slowly eases through the day and winds will become light in the a’noon as the low moves away and weak high pressure fills in across NSW.

By Tuesday we should have dreamy conditions with light offshores on offer. Strong mid-period leftovers in the 5-6ft range should open up a range of good to great surf across the region, water quality and sand-banks notwithstanding. All day offshores will preside over a slowly easing swell. Definitely a day to pencil in.

By mid-week another front is expected to arrive and interact with lingering troughiness in the Tasman to form a new low, although much weaker and more mobile than the current event. Models have been inconsistent run to run on this event, so it’s likely we’ll need to revise substantially on Mon.

For now, we are looking at a low point in size Wed, with winds freshening from the SW as the front pushes through and kicks off the new low.

A thin fetch of SSW/S winds adjacent to the coast is expected to see a moderate S swell Thurs, in the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches.

The front and low is then expected to move away quickly, leading to a rapidly declining swell signal from Fri into next weekend, July 16/17.

We’ll be tracking a very strong frontal progression/polar low through that period, with a view for more S swell into the week following July16/17.

Check back Mon for a full update and have a great weekend!

Comments

dannyz's picture
dannyz's picture
dannyz Friday, 8 Jul 2022 at 10:12am

models definitely had today wrong! easy 6ft+ on CC

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 8 Jul 2022 at 10:17am

Yeah, so many different swell trains in the water.
What's dominant there Danny?

dannyz's picture
dannyz's picture
dannyz Friday, 8 Jul 2022 at 9:39pm

yeah 100% two different directions it seemed.. SE and E but south seems more dominant

byronetmedia's picture
byronetmedia's picture
byronetmedia Saturday, 9 Jul 2022 at 11:34am

Cape solander yesterday was a lot bigger

Robwilliams's picture
Robwilliams's picture
Robwilliams Friday, 8 Jul 2022 at 1:30pm
Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 8 Jul 2022 at 1:51pm

Coupla brown barrels..

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Friday, 8 Jul 2022 at 7:31pm

Arvo surf report 4,ft .. well overhead5-6 ft easy at local few boys got stand up kegs amongst the debris ..

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Friday, 8 Jul 2022 at 8:35pm

Was the swell more east this morning and turned more south this
afternoon because I totally got it wrong and missed the wave above.
Now that hurts.

billie's picture
billie's picture
billie Saturday, 9 Jul 2022 at 9:10am

I wonder if.... sometimes the outside reef refracts the swell at low tide and makes it appear more east than it is. The day before was the same. I was telling my mate how east it looked but was confused why it was South east in manly. Yet, at high tide thursday and friday, the swell "swung east".

billie's picture
billie's picture
billie Saturday, 9 Jul 2022 at 10:22am

Swung south rather

FrazP's picture
FrazP's picture
FrazP Saturday, 9 Jul 2022 at 12:00pm

Seemed a lot of E in it yesterday. Bigger Sth end of the beach compared to Greenhills - at least in the morning. Arvo seemed to be big all over. Banks are ho-hum but there were some good ones if you were on the spot and prepared to paddle a lot. Still really solid today but more Sth - and the wind is just up.

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Sunday, 10 Jul 2022 at 6:13pm

How’s the swell increase this arvo.. I didn’t think it was going to happen.then bang . massive sets before dark.. can not put a size on it as it was breaking so far out .. 10-12ft + bigger on some bombs..

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 10 Jul 2022 at 6:26pm

It took a while eh?
I was watching all day and it came late.

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Sunday, 10 Jul 2022 at 6:50pm

Same!!! spent 4 hrs there .. worth every second.. in the rain and wind .. Can’t beat it Mother Nature at her pissed off best

Parko_70's picture
Parko_70's picture
Parko_70 Sunday, 10 Jul 2022 at 7:04pm

Got large down here at Gong, late in the arvo.
Pretty ugly, windy and unsurfable south of the harbour.
A few massive bomb sets (10 foot plus) off the headland.
Got some nice footage.

Parko_70's picture
Parko_70's picture
Parko_70 Sunday, 10 Jul 2022 at 7:20pm

I have no idea how to upload a photo to this thread from a phone (just of a bomb set) I am a dinosaur lol.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Monday, 11 Jul 2022 at 10:21am

Manly Escondido