Large windy weekend, next week looks fantastic (if you like south swells)

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 28th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Very large, windy S/SE swell this weekend
  • Decent E/NE groundswell in the mix Sat (though you won't see it)
  • Another large S/SE groundswell for Mon with light offshore winds, easing Tues onwards (though initially still very solid)
  • Low point in size Thurs
  • Short range S'ly swell around Friday though likely wind affected

Recap

E’ly swells persisted in the 3-4ft range on Thursday with offshore winds keeping conditions clean. We’ve got early W/SW winds this morning ahead of developing S/SW gales, and building S’ly swells already 4-5ft at south facing beaches, expected to increase steadily through the day. There’s still some useful E’ly swell the mix too.

This weekend and next week (Jun 4 onwards)

There's no new news for the weekend outlook with no major changes to the synoptic charts, so there’s not much point detailing the obvious. Which is, fresh to strong southerly winds both days, and very large S’ly tending S/SE swells. 

Model guidance suggests a peak on Saturday morning, with 8ft surf at most open beaches, reaching 10-12ft at south swell magnets, then easing steadily from Sunday through Monday and into the middle of next week. 

However, from a surf perspective there’s a few things the models aren’t picking up well and this will have a greater bearing on your choices over the coming days. So here’s my thoughts on how this event will evolve.

First of all, a small long period E/NE swell is expected to build this afternoon, generated by a reintensification of the same low that generated our impressive E’ly groundswell earlier in the week - but this later development occurred behind the NZ swell shadow, so we won’t see anywhere near as much size as our northern counterparts.

And with a very large dominant S’ly swell, it’ll be hard to distinguish anyway. However if the buoys spike to 16-17 seconds (or more), this is where it will have originated from - NOT the developing Tasman Low. 

As for our upcoming south swell, the current energy is sourced from SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait. As the frontal sequence moves properly north-east of Tasmania today and the low develops to the east, we’ll see the resulting southerly fetch spread across the breadth of (almost) the entire Tasman Sea. This is a very impressive development.

However, at the peak of the first synoptic amplification, Sydney will be positioned roughly midway along the fetch - and, off-axis too - these southerly winds will be aimed towards New Caledonia. So, we’ll see sideband energy across our region, and it’ll be smaller in size compared to Northern NSW (because, we’ll have less fetch length upstream). See image below.

There’ll be a few secondary fronts racing around the primary Tasman Low throughout this period, and each will slightly enhance wave heights above usual size estimates, as they’ll have been working on an active pre-existing sea state generated by previous winds.

This initial peak is expected overnight tonight through early Saturday morning, so Saturday should see fluctuating wave heights as per model predictions, probably maxing out in the 10-12ft range at south swell magnets though these locations will be horribly wind affected. The acute swell direction will create much smaller surf elsewhere (though, still very large).

So, sheltered southern ends, points will be the only option. Expect a lot of water moving around. Saturday won't be a day for inexperience. 

As for conditions on Saturday, there’s a chance for early W/SW winds but the synoptic S/SW thru’ S’ly breeze will likely override most locations. Best chance for this brief, favourable window will be along the Northern Beaches.

Make sure you spend a lot of time assessing the surf as it'll be pretty easy to find yourself in trouble in a short space of time.

Sunday

On Sunday, surf size will temporarily ease thanks to the primary low weakening a little on Saturday afternoon, and this should also allow for a slightly better chance for most locations to see a period of favourable morning W/SW winds - though don’t bank on it happening everywhere (and, expect the S’ly to resume at some point). 

South facing beaches will probably still be north of 8ft+ (smaller elsewhere) so it’ll be another day for sheltered points and southern ends. Size will slowly ease through the day. 

Early next week

Late Sunday is where things get interesting.

On Saturday, a small secondary low is expected to form near the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island, before slingshotting up along the western flank of the Tasman Low, with a new fetch of storm force S/SE winds (see below).

This fetch will generate the best round of swell of the entire cycle. The leading edge of this new pulse is expected to reach the South Coast very late Sunday - probably not into Sydney until after dinnertime - ahead of a peak in size overnight and early Monday. 

The models aren’t really picking this up well, increasing swell periods from 11.1 seconds Sunday to 12.4 seconds early Monday, so our swell graph isn’t accurately reflecting what will eventuate - which is a kick in surf size back up to 8-10ft at south swell magnets for most of Monday. I'm expecting this energy to be a little stronger than that seen over the weekend too.

Even better, swell direction will be more S/SE, which should allow for a broader spread of size across the region, and conditions are looking excellent with a high pressure ridge creating light W/SW winds. As per usual, expect much smaller surf at beaches not open to the south.

Although the responsible fetch will remain active through Sunday, it will gradually weaken into Monday and slowly rotate outside of our swell window, leading to a steady drop in surf size from Tuesday onwards. That being said, there’s a faint suggestion for yet another secondary front to wrap around the (weakening) Tasman Low on Monday morning, which may slightly arrest the easing trend on Tuesday.

So, let’s peg Tuesday morning around 5-6ft+ at south facing beaches (smaller elsewhere), easing down to 3-5ft Wednesday morning then 2-3ft by the afternoon, with the same size caveats at remaining beaches.

Conditions look excellent all the way through Thursday with no synoptic influence and only weak sea breezes at best. So, banks pending, all of next week looks fantastic for surf.

Long term has an approaching front and southerly change around Friday and an associated kick in swell. Though, obviously nothing like what’s expected for the next week or so.

Have a great weekend!

Comments

Tim Bonython's picture
Tim Bonython's picture
Tim Bonython Friday, 28 May 2021 at 11:26am

FROTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 28 May 2021 at 11:27am

Looks like there's a malfunction on your keyboard's '1' pad :D

CPW74's picture
CPW74's picture
CPW74 Friday, 28 May 2021 at 12:51pm

Hi Guys
I moved to Sydney from the UK 2 weeks ago. This morning I bought a brand new Speedo Spring Suit from Rebel Sport (only cost me $59.99) and this afternoon I'm going to buy my first surfboard. Do you think the waves will be pumping enough for me at Bondi tomorrow? If not, where should i go?

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 28 May 2021 at 1:04pm

There's a secret wave at Cape Solander. You'll be fine there!!! ;)

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Friday, 28 May 2021 at 1:12pm

Definitely Cape Solander if you're just learning.

science's picture
science's picture
science Friday, 28 May 2021 at 12:52pm

And some tasty tides that coincide

#erosion

shwetakumar88's picture
shwetakumar88's picture
shwetakumar88 Friday, 28 May 2021 at 1:50pm

Is this swell likely getting into Merimbula area? Heading there for 3 weeks next week and I’m worried it’ll miss all the swell - is it very straight south?

Wong's picture
Wong's picture
Wong Friday, 28 May 2021 at 1:59pm

This is a joke, yeah CPW

CPW74's picture
CPW74's picture
CPW74 Friday, 28 May 2021 at 2:18pm

Will there be less people at Cape Salamander than Bondi?
No Wong, not a joke...$59.99 brand new

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Friday, 28 May 2021 at 4:23pm

Crikey that's cheap, what colours do they stock??

FrazP's picture
FrazP's picture
FrazP Friday, 28 May 2021 at 4:36pm

Careful of Wong advice CPW.

Stu2d2's picture
Stu2d2's picture
Stu2d2 Friday, 28 May 2021 at 2:30pm

Hey Ben, your write ups give a better indication of overall Synoptics than James’s - not exactly sure how you can get him to change but that’s my 2c.

GeorgeyG's picture
GeorgeyG's picture
GeorgeyG Friday, 28 May 2021 at 4:19pm

I agree, need those notes about when the models aren’t picking stuff up very well

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 28 May 2021 at 4:55pm

Thanks mate, all a part of the learning curve - James has his own style and is doing really well, but feedback is always appreciated.

Stu2d2's picture
Stu2d2's picture
Stu2d2 Friday, 28 May 2021 at 7:47pm

All good, constructive criticism is how we learn.

mibs-oner's picture
mibs-oner's picture
mibs-oner Saturday, 29 May 2021 at 8:05pm

I actually like James’ straight to the point style

batfink's picture
batfink's picture
batfink Sunday, 30 May 2021 at 12:53pm

I am very happy with James’ succinct and accurate forecasts.

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Friday, 28 May 2021 at 2:57pm

James shown the door.....bummer

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 28 May 2021 at 3:01pm

Not at all.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 28 May 2021 at 2:58pm

joking?

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Friday, 28 May 2021 at 4:24pm

Stick to Bondi CPW should be fun no doubt you will be run over by the over zealous
jet skis out at Cape. I want you to be safe. Should only be around 8-12ft and uncrowded.

FrazP's picture
FrazP's picture
FrazP Friday, 28 May 2021 at 4:43pm

Got a feeling my on again off again sore toe is going to play up over the weekend and will keep me out of the surf. Maybe CPW is best on the bench watching as well.

CPW74's picture
CPW74's picture
CPW74 Friday, 28 May 2021 at 4:57pm

Thanks guys. I’ll stick with Bondi tomorrow. It’s been a hectic week & having some cooc run me over on a ski would definitely be the strawberry camel back

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Friday, 28 May 2021 at 4:58pm

CPW.. scored an absolute bargain they champion.. good luck this weekend mate hope you get a few .. check in next week let us know how ya went ..

Wong's picture
Wong's picture
Wong Friday, 28 May 2021 at 5:09pm

Yeah go ahead to the salamander, you'll learn fast, should be some crew on it too to teach you

Panman's picture
Panman's picture
Panman Friday, 28 May 2021 at 5:46pm

Got to be taking the piss CPW

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Friday, 28 May 2021 at 6:07pm

CPW..might be best to go smash 15 pints tonight .. tomorrow get $20 worth of fish n chips and watch the waves .. maybe have swim in ya new wettie ..

tubeshooter's picture
tubeshooter's picture
tubeshooter Saturday, 29 May 2021 at 8:33pm

Not really sure you really need the springy CPW , boardies should be fine. Also easier to cut away when , um , ahh ,,, yeah ....... ,nah, I'm sure you'll be fine.
Might want to shave that manly chest as well , defibs like good skin contact , sorry ,,I meant the girls will appreciate it .

joesydney's picture
joesydney's picture
joesydney Sunday, 30 May 2021 at 10:43am

The real question we need an answer to is how did CPW74 manage to get into the country............

CPW74's picture
CPW74's picture
CPW74 Sunday, 30 May 2021 at 3:43pm

Hi Guys
Yesterday was a really shit day & I no longer surf. It was heaps harder than soccer (which i used to be really good at). I don’t know if i had the board leash on the wrong arm or something but it was really hard. Anyway, i got to meet some of the guys from Bondi Rescue which was kinda lucky because i was clinically dead when they found me

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Sunday, 30 May 2021 at 4:36pm

Sounds like you tapped the core surfing experience

tubeshooter's picture
tubeshooter's picture
tubeshooter Sunday, 30 May 2021 at 5:12pm

Surprised you didn't put the leash around your neck , but if you survived you're doing well . I'm sure the lifeguards were impressed with the attempt .
Don't give up though, It'd be a shame to bin that new wetty .

Wong's picture
Wong's picture
Wong Sunday, 30 May 2021 at 4:57pm

Woah there CPW, don't be putting your new board and wetsuit on gumtree right now. You were certainly not the only person in the water that got punished either. Surfing is a life lesson and your patience will be one day rewarded with a wave that will imprint your memory leading to a live long addiction like the rest of us here. Besides that, I think everyone is enjoying having you around here.

CPW74's picture
CPW74's picture
CPW74 Sunday, 30 May 2021 at 5:58pm

But paramedics cut my wetsuit off with scissors & nobody’s seen the board

Stu2d2's picture
Stu2d2's picture
Stu2d2 Monday, 31 May 2021 at 6:21am

Well played.

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Sunday, 30 May 2021 at 6:10pm

CPW.. hope you got an interview on Bondi rescue ..

Wong's picture
Wong's picture
Wong Monday, 31 May 2021 at 1:52pm

You don't know anyone over at ding alley CPW? hell of a story or you're just very entertaining.