Varied options - S'ly and NE swells to end the week

Guy Dixon picture
Guy Dixon (Guy Dixon)

Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 11th November)

Best Days: Thursday morning at south facing beaches and fingers crossed for Friday morning at open beaches

Recap: 

Tuesday saw small and lacklustre surf right along the coast with a residual south/southeaster swell providing surf in the 1-2ft range across Sydney and the Illawarra, slightly larger across the Hunter. The early session offered the cleanest conditions under northwesterly breezes, although the quality soon dropped throughout the day as a seabreeze kicked in mid-morning. By that stage, it was virtually all over. We saw hints of a fresh southerly groundswell late in the afternoon, with sets in the 2ft range.

South facing beaches are continuing to see energy off a southerly groundswell, but it’s modest. Newcastle is picking up inconsistent 2-3ft sets, more in the 2ft range at the magnets further south. Although onshore, breezes remain light so conditions are fairly clean and workable.

This week (Thursday 12th - Friday 13th):

South facing beaches are looking like the pick of the bunch for Thursday, with a combination of multiple southerly swells and a northerly component airflow.

Firstly, the break down of swells looks fairly complex. A southerly groundswell will provide a good amount of surf for the magnets with sets in the 2-3ft range throughout most of the day. Periods in the 14-15 second range means fair consistency, with plenty of power behind them.

Also in the mix will be a smaller southeasterly windswell generated by an easterly fetch which is developing this afternoon and evening. Although this fetch is concentrated and aimed towards the South Coast of NSW, coasts further north should still short range energy around the 2ft mark. 

As the day progresses, a northeasterly fetch is looking to increase along the Hunter and Sydney coast, causing a short range northeasterly swell to build throughout the afternoon. By dark, open beaches are likely to be providing peaks in the 2ft range, although don’t expect much in terms of quality.

The same breezes that are generating this northeast windswell will also be hugging the coast leading to pretty bumpy and wind affected surf at open beaches. South facing beaches the only locations worth considering, especially northern corners which will provide good protection from the breeze.

This northeasterly windswell is likely to peak overnight from Thursday into Friday, however Friday morning still looks to have plenty of size, holding in the 2ft+ range at open beaches, easing throughout the day.

The timing of a southerly change will be crucial to the quality of surf on Friday morning. At this stage, there is pretty good confidence that we will see a window of light/variable northwesterly breezes along the Sydney and Illawarra coasts in the morning preceding the change (more northerly for the Hunter). 

This sounds great, however models suggest that gusty north/northeasterly breezes will have been blowing throughout the night, leaving very little time for conditions to clean up before dawn.

We saw a similar scenario last week, where there was some morning sickness for the early session, before improving in the late morning. I’m expecting this to be the case again, however the offshore breezes also don’t look strong enough to groom the line up nicely. In summary, I’m thinking mid-late morning will have the most workable conditions, with an element of lump in the mix.

Once the southerly change moves through, protected southern corners will be the go where you’ll reap the benefits of the fading northeasterly windswell.

Gusty southerly breezes are likely to whip up a shorter range southerly windswell to the 3ft range late in the day. There should also be an element of underlying groundswell in the 2ft range, however breezes will be unfavourable so these spots really aren’t worth too much consideration as the quality will be pretty low. 

Keep in mind, a low pressure system is likely to develop off the coast of Tasmania in the early hours of Friday morning which should provide more energy for the weekend (models have come into fairly good alignment regarding the location/timing off this particular system).

This weekend (Saturday 14th - Sunday 15th):

As we wake on Saturday morning, short range southerly energy will still be in the water from Friday’s change. We would usually expect this local energy to dissipate quite quickly, however swell generated by southerly fetches on the western flank of the aforementioned low will keep the surf in the 3ft range at south facing beaches throughout Saturday, larger across the Hunter.

Breezes will continue from the southeast, moderate/fresh along Sydney and Hunter coasts, lighter further south. It’ll be tricky to find a clean wave, but if you’re happy to sacrifice size, southern ends of open beaches will have smaller, cleaner options off residual northeasterly energy.

Sunday will see all coasts fade from the 2-3ft range at south facing beaches, as the energy from these southerly swell sources dissipates. A southeasterly breeze will continue to dominate along the coast, particularly over the Hunter. The quality of the surf won’t be anything spectacular, but workable if you’re happy to lower your standards.

Next week (Monday 16th onward):

At this stage, the early stages of next week look to show a gradual easing trend, slowed only inconsistent southerly groundswells generated by poorly aligned frontal progressions.

Models are struggling to agree on an airflow pattern, but the lack of fresh surf makes the details fairly useless at this stage. More info on Friday.

Comments

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Wednesday, 11 Nov 2015 at 5:49pm

I hate this time of year. Cold water and near no surf.
Come on autumn.

DeXtrus's picture
DeXtrus's picture
DeXtrus Wednesday, 11 Nov 2015 at 7:25pm

Couldn't agree more. Hate spring!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 12 Nov 2015 at 6:06am

Looking good this morning at Bondi: that's a decent line of S'ly groundswell.

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg Thursday, 12 Nov 2015 at 5:16pm

Any update on the timing and strength of the change? Looks a little earlier perhaps?

Guy Dixon's picture
Guy Dixon's picture
Guy Dixon Thursday, 12 Nov 2015 at 9:52pm

Gusty N - N/NW pre dawn, easing to light/moderate NW by sunrise, tending light variable by mid morning.

I think it'll still be pretty raw for the pre-work paddle, cleaning up mid-morning.

North corners/south facing beaches will likely have the cleanest options if you're heading out early.