Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 11th February)

Best Days: Thurs PM thru' Sun: small E/NE swell building slowly, peaking late Sat/Sun. Next week: plenty more E/NE swell on the cards.

Recap: Tuesday’s short range S/SE tending SE swell ended up being quite a bit bigger than forecast (2ft+), with south facing beaches seeing 3-4ft sets at times, and generally light winds - including the sea breeze - made for favourable conditions. This swell eased back today with a slight shift in the swell direction to the E/SE, and wave heights have languished in the 2ft range across open beaches today, with much less strength in the water too. Local winds have remained light to moderate onshore all day.

This week (Feb 12 - 13)

A slow, steady increase in small long range E/NE swell is expected for the rest of the week, originating from a strong trade belt that developed north and north-east of New Zealand earlier this week. It’s not especially well aligned for southern NSW but the fetch is very broad and strong, so we’ll see a slow upwards trend from about Thursday onwards ahead of a sustained peak in size over the weekend. 

However I have pulled back wave height estimations for the next few days, as we’re looking at a delayed peak in size (by about 24 hours) compared to Monday’s notes.

Thursday will start off similarly small as per today with slow sets in the 2ft range at open beaches, with a slight lift throughout the afternoon that should start to see a few bigger waves approaching 2-3ft at exposed NE facing beaches. Light to moderate NE winds are expected all day, with brief periods of variable winds and associated glassy conditions. Expect smaller waves at south facing beaches.

Surf size should lift a little more through Friday, to hold more consistently in the 2-3ft range at NE facing beaches (again, smaller at south facing beaches). Light variable winds are expected of much of Friday under the influence of a weak ridge across much of the Tasman Sea. Onshores will probably develop at some point but shouldn't gather too much strength.

This weekend (Feb 14 - 15)

The E/NE swell  is expected to continue a slow climb through the weekend, probably peaking later Saturday and into Sunday morning with inconsistent 3-4ft sets at NE facing beaches (smaller at south facing beaches). Wave heights may be a tad undersized early Saturday morning. 

As for local conditions, we are looking at freshening NE trend across the weekend but periods of lighter NW winds are likely both mornings. Therefore, surface conditions probably won’t be quite as good over the weekend as what we’re expected for the next few days but there should certainly be no shortage of fun waves across the open beachies.

Next week (Feb 16 onwards)

The trades north of New Zealand are expected to remain anchored in place for much of the long term period, which will ensure a lengthy supply of fun moderate-sized E/NE swell for southern NSW.

Unfortunately, the models have pulled back on any major enhancements within this trade flow (as was suggested on Monday) however the synoptic setup remains very similar - so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a favourable rebound by Friday’s update.  Let’s wait and then to make a final call on the chances of a solid groundswell event from this quadrant next week.

Elsewhere, there are no other major systems of note in the long term outlook - a couple of minor fronts traversing the waters south of the lower Tasman Sea may kick up some minor southerly energy but it’s nothing worth working around at this stage. I’ll take a closer look on Friday.