Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday August 4th)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday, Saturday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, inconsistent W/SW groundswell for tomorrow, peaking in the PM with strong but easing N-N/NE tending NW winds
• Tiny Wed AM ahead of a building mid-period W/SW swell into the PM with NW tending strong W/SW-SW winds
• Moderate sized W/SW groundswell Thu with W/NW-W winds
• Reinforcing mid-period SW swell Fri with NW tending NE then late S winds
• Easing SW groundswell Sat with NW tending E winds

Recap

Saturday started clean and 2-3ft with offshore winds, increasing out of the NE into the afternoon along with the late arrival of a strong new S/SW groundswell.

This swell eased through yesterday with strengthening N winds, similar this morning but tiny.

This week and weekend (Aug 5 - 10)

As touched on last week, we’ve got some new W/SW groundswell energy on the way for tomorrow firstly, ahead of some bigger, stronger energy later week.

Tomorrow’s swell which is expected to peak into the afternoon was generated by a strong but distant polar low that formed around the Heard Island region last Thursday night, aiming a fetch of storm-force W/SW winds in our far swell window.

The swell should build to a slow 1-2ft into the afternoon under strong but easing N-N/NE tending NW winds.

The swell will fade Wednesday morning as NW winds shift strong W/SW-SW into the afternoon thanks to a strong polar front clipping the state.

This polar front is currently south-west of Western Australia and east of the Heard Island region, with a great fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds being projected east towards us, weakening through tomorrow.

The front moving across us on Wednesday should kick up a weak 2ft of swell into the afternoon, with the groundswell arriving for Thursday, peaking into the afternoon to an inconsistent 3ft.

A secondary weaker but close tracking polar front pushing in through the middle of the week should generate a similar sized, reinforcing SW swell for Friday, easing from a less consistent 2-3ft Saturday.

Local winds look great and W/NW-W most of Thursday with NW tending weak NE winds on Friday ahead of a possible late S change. NW tending E winds are due Saturday as the swell eases, fresher Sunday with small, fading leftovers.

Longer term the outlook is a bit slower, but more on this Wednesday.