South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 9th June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Slow moving low in Tasman supplies S-S/SE swells this week favouring NENSW for size
• Small surf Tues- late kick in S swell close to dark on MNC
• Solid S swell Wed in NENSW with fresh SW winds, remaining tiny in SEQLD
• Better quality S-S/SE swell Thurs favouring NENSW for size with offshore winds
• Slow easing in size from Fri into the weekend
• Possible rebuild in local S-SE swell Sat as trough of low pressure moves up coast
• Potential for another low in the Tasman next week from mid week

Recap

S to S/SE swells were in abundance across NENSW over the weekend, grading smaller into SEQLD with the lack of quality sand being the main factor determine wave quality. Sat was in the 3-5ft range across NENSW S facing beaches, smaller 2 occ. 3ft in SEQLD with W tending NW winds and a light N’ly flow in the a’noon. Longer period S/SE swell Sun saw sets in excess of 4ft across NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD with another day of W-W/NW winds which tended more NW-N in the a’noon. Long lines of swell, not much in the way of quality surf. Today has eased right back to 2ft or less with fresh W-W/NW winds.

Long lines of swell, hard to find a corner

This week (June 9-13)

Slow moving low pressure (995hPa) spawned in a cold outbreak is currently due east of Eden on the far south coast and is driving fresh W’ly winds across NSW and up into SEQLD, whist directing a fresh SE flow across Tasmania. We’ll see the low move slowly out to sea later tomorrow and generate an initial pulse of local, directional S swell before moving further into the Tasman with better angled swells produced for later in the week. 

In the short run we’ll see the low move offshore o/night into Tues and strong winds to low end gale SW winds along the Southern NSW coast, extending out to a thin S’ly fetch on the western flank of the low. Surf is likely to be tiny/flat across most of the region from sunup to sun down with just a small kick in new S swell making it around the Hunter curve into the MNC before dark. Nothing much more than 2 occ. 3ft on dark at S facing beaches.

Plenty of size builds across NENSW into Wed with W’ly tending SW’ly winds through the day. We’ll see an initial surge of directional S swell to 3-4ft across NENSW (bigger 5-6ft at S facing river bars) and remaining tiny from the S in SEQLD. There is a small E’ly signal from a retreating trade fetch in the South Pacific late last week that looks to offer up an occ. 2ft set for the patient. 

There’s a lovely S/SE fetch set-up by the low as it retreats towards New Zealand and that fetch looks to reach peak intensity early Wed and then slowly ease. 

Under current modelling that would suggest nice S-S/SE swells for Thurs in the 3-5ft range  across NENSW S facing beaches, smaller 3 ft in SEQLD,  with a slow ease through Fri. 

Winds should be fine for Thurs - light offshore through the morning, tending SW-S/SW through the day.

Similar for Fri morning with W-W/SW breezes but we may see a trickier wind regime Fri as a trough works it’s way north- likely freshening W/SW-SW north from Coffs with a chance of SE winds below that. We’ll fine-tune on Wed. 

This weekend (June 14-15)

Looks like we will see a rebuild in more local S-SE swell Sat as the trough of low pressure aims up at NENSW and a high pressure ridge holds a SW flow tending SW-S through the day. We’ll pencil in surf rebuilding to 3-4ft Sat and see how it looks Wed.

By Sun high pressure moves out into the Tasman and weak pressure gradients along the NSW Central Coast lead to light SW breezes and weak, late seabreezes. Nice clean conditions with some small, fun leftovers to 2 occ. 3ft at S facing beaches.

Next week (Jun 16 onwards)

Looks like a couple of small days to start next week with leftovers to 2ft or less and offshore winds as a front and low approach from the west.

We should see more action mid week with potential for another low in the Tasman.

Lots of model divergence there so we’ll flag another round of S quadrant swell possibly as early as Tues next week and see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then!