Strong SE surge into the weekend brings plenty of wind and swell
Sidenote: Tim Bonython is bringing "Maya and the Wave" to the Big Screen this week - a docco featuring the trials & tribulations of Maya Gabeira as she achieved the World Record for the biggest wave ridden by a woman. Features a Q&A session with director Stephanie Johnes and Tim at most shows. More info/tickets here: https://event.asmf.net.au/
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 7th May)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Small uptick in E swell Thurs with early light winds and freshening S’lies in the a’noon
- Increase in SE swell Fri with fresh SE winds
- Plenty of SE-E/SE swell this weekend with mod/fresh S-SE winds favouring the Points
- More E/SE-E swell into next week, slowly easing from Tues
- Possible round of sizey S swell next weekend, check back Fri for latest updates
Recap
Small tradeswells have maintained fun waves since Mon with yesterday seeing size in the 2-3ft range with clean morning conditions and a’noon SE breezes. Size has dropped today into the 2ft range with the very occ. bigger set. Light winds again today with morning offshores and a’noon S-SE breezes.
Peaky tradeswell in NENSW today
This week (May7-9)
The Eastern seaboard is in between two large highs at the moment with a system near New Zealand still generating surf via a tradewind fetch and a new system moving through the Bight about to replicate it. In between, a trough and cold front are currently approaching Tasmania, expected to bring a vigorous S’ly change o/night, bringing a spike in short range S swell short term. Once the strong high ridges in and establishes a broad fetch in the Tasman it will become the main swell source over the weekend and into next week.
In the short run we’ll see a clean start to tomorrow with a light SW flow, tending S’ly to SE’ly and reaching strong wind status through the a’noon. A small uptick in tradeswell kicks up size into the 3ft range on the sets with short range S swell building across the MNC to North Coast late in the day.
Friday looks more muscular all around as the strong S-SE surge kicks up a rapid rise in short range swell from the same direction. Expect size in the 4-5ft range in NENSW, bigger at exposed S facing beaches and smaller surf building to 3-4ft in SEQLD. With fresh to strong SE winds expected only the protected points will be offering a small, clean wave.
This weekend (May10-11)
High pressure drifting over Southern NSW into the Tasman this weekend as outlined on Mon holds a firm ridge along the sub-tropical coast with mod/fresh SE winds, easing slowly over the weekend and tending more E/SE south of the border.
We may see windows of lighter SW breezes inshore early but they won’t last long, especially north of the border.
Plenty of size though as robust, chunky SE swells hold in the 4-6ft range through Sat across open exposed breaks, grading smaller into the Points.
By Sun we should see swell direction tend a little more E’ly with similar size and more surf getting into the sheltered Points.
Next week (May 12 onwards)
Big, slow moving high in the Tasman next week will slowly migrate towards New Zealand, holding a broad fetch of E’ly winds across the Coral Sea, South Pacific slot and into the Northern Tasman.
We’ll see E/SE’ly swells and SE winds from this pattern through until mid next week. Models are suggesting surf to 4-5ft Mon- that might be a little optimistic considering wind speeds in the fetch. Even if wave models are overcooking it a notch we’ll still see fun waves through Mon-Wed next week with a slow easing trend from Tues.
The southern swell window remains suppressed by high pressure but we may see some traces of sideband S swell from poorly positioned fetches (better aimed at South Pacific targets) next week. We’ll see how they look on Fri but as E swells wane later next week small S swells are possible Thurs/Fri.
Much better prospects medium term as blocking high pressure moves away and a more favourably positioned long wave trough node suggests a strong frontal intrusion and possible low pressure development late next week or into the weekend 17-18/5.
If models hold true, we could be looking at some very sizey S swell in that period or just after.
Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.
Seeya then!
Comments
More big swells to smash the banks.
No banks to smash here.
Could be a long, long winter.
Man its been such a shame seeing all the autumn swells going to waste. I had to cancel my Indo trip last week due to broken toe still playing up after nearly 3 months of barely surfing.
Can't imagine the winter south swells are gonna like the current bank setups. This year may be a big write off. Couldn't tell you the last time i surfed a long, lined up point break.
could we expect much wrap into the noosa points by friday or is the swell too SE?
Outer points will have a wave- but will be more as swell tends more E'ly over the weekend.
I would keep expectations pegged pretty low, unless you have a log/mid-length.
Not great for Burleigh. Swell is fine but the strong SE will smash it
So weird they haven't ran it at least in the mornings the past 2 days, its looked 3 foot and fun. I doubt there'll be much quality from the wind next few days either, besides tmr morning will be cooking i think.
Steve
Do you think contest will run Thursday or WSL will wait for more size fri sat despite the winds
Probably a good time to show our new model upgrades (being launched very soon!) that has a major improvement for the Gold Coast. We've been running this in the background for the last couple of years and it's performing extremely well, right around the world (the process of getting it live is quite complex, as we're upgrading a few other things at the same time, hence why it's taken quite a while).
Current model forecast:
New model forecast:
Filtering out swells for specific locations?
How come wind forecast also different?
We've actually been filtering since the start. We've upgraded the model, and fine-tuned things a little quite a bit with our internal system (it's a long, complex process to undertake and varies from coast to coast). Will reveal more once it's all live.
Too many onshore days. Can you change the model so the swell remains but the winds are offshore?
Yeah, we also have that version available but the subscription price is eye watering.
Maybe this is too close to commercial in confidence but I'm curious what kind of platform you guys use, Ben.
Are you programming up a "model of models" type of thing to integrate swell forecast output from the different models from NOAA and BoM or whoever, or is it your own forecast model coded up from scratch to use wind forecasts only?
I remember coastal watch made a big song and dance about their ANN forecast model about 20 years ago, but I don't think that lasted too long. From memory it always under predicted larger swell events. And it seemed like a limited approach to forecasting to use a black box machine learning approach rather than a mechanistic model. But I guess it meant they could update it anytime without having to wait for model runs from other providers.
But yeah, I get that maybe this kind of question isn't something to discuss. Also I'm completely ignorant of what NOAA and BOM etc produce so maybe this is a nonsense question.
Ah yes, ANNA. Yet another one of Coastalwatch's taxpayer funded projects that was terrible, and ultimately closed down shortly after the grant money dried up.
We'll reveal more later about our new system, but as you can understand, it's a tough commercial environment - and as a small family owned business whose competitors are international private-equity backed with very deep pockets, we're keeping a lot of our cards close to our chest.
To be honest though, at the end of the day, surfers themselves are pretty capable of deciding who provides the best service, and we're pretty confident that ours comes out on top.
You guys smoke the 'competition' mate, keep up the great work, looking forward to hearing more about the new model system!
Yep that makes sense man. I can't wait to see it up and running.
true that
Very fun 3ft Autumn barrels on a good bit of sand this morning. Quite the celestial show predawn too.
Mt.Cooly had 3ft close outs into a big fat gutter, is that the same :)
Very fun indeed. It was hard to have to call it quits and leave for the work thing.
Clean 3ft here this morning- with a choice between rock-runners onto the rocks or back bank close-outs in brown water.
Tragic. Today was a classic day further north.
Think comp will run tomorrow (Friday) or wait?
Looked absolutely tosh this morning, but there were a few standing up. And no crowd willing. Bit of fun.