South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 4th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Very small in SE Qld from Sat thru' Tues
• Small leftovers in NNSW on Sat, generally light winds
• Fun pulse of S'ly swell in NNSW for Sun, generally light winds
• Smaller in NNSW on Mon, generally light winds
• Another nice pulse of S'ly swell for NNSW on Tues PM, peaking Wed, easing Thurs.. but not much size in SE Qld
• Decent E'ly groundswell building from late Thurs, more likely Fri and holding thru' the weekend

Recap

Easing surf from 4-5ft on Thursday morning across Northern NSW has bottomed out in the 3ft range today. SE Qld has seen smaller surf (thanks to the S/SE swell direction), easing from 3ft+ to 2ft at south swell magnets, smaller elsewhere. Generally light winds have kept conditions workable.

This weekend (Apr 5-6)

We’ve got a small, slow weekend ahead for SE Qld. There’s a new south swell due to arrive on Sunday but it’s poorly aligned within SE Qld’s swell window and so most beaches won’t see any new size. 

Conditions look generally OK with light winds for the most part, though a shallow southerly change will clip the region overnight on Saturday and this may result in moderate S’lies for Sunday morning. But it’s moot point with small residual swells topping out at 1ft across most beaches. 

Late Sunday afternoon may see a small bump in size at south swell magnets and exposed northern ends but there won’t be much more than a foot or two in it.

South of the border looks much more promising. 

Saturday will see smaller surf than today, with leftover 1-2ft sets at south facing beaches (smaller elsewhere) and early light offshore winds. A cold front pushing through the Tasman Sea will skirt the Mid North Coast mid-afternoon onwards, bringing a moderate to fresh southerly change to exposed headlands, but it’s unlikely to push much further north than about Coffs by sunset, and it’ll peter out overnight.

This should lead to a morning of light winds on Sunday, as a new southerly swell generated by its trailing fetch pushes through, reaching a lunchtime or early afternoon peak up to 3-4ft at south facing beaches on the Mid North Coast (a little smaller early morning).

Sunday’s swell trend will be delayed across the Northern Rivers and may peak a little smaller in size, by which time we may see afternoon northerlies starting to freshen, so northern ends will offer the best waves in this region.

Of course, beaches not open to the south will be much smaller in size. Early morning should offer small clean beachies at exposed spots, before the swell arrives.

And to reiterate, very little of this south swell is expected north of the border.

Next week (Apr 7 onwards)

Light winds are expected across most of the region throughout the first half of the week, which should create clean conditions overall, though a building ridge through the Coral Sea may bring about moderate S/SE winds in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW later Tuesday and at times on Wednesday.

Sunday’s south swell will ease into Monday - so expect very small conditions to persist north of the border, with 2-3ft surf at south swell magnets south of the border abating to 1-2ft through the day (smaller elsewhere).

A powerful frontal sequence moving through underneath Tasmania and into the southern Tasman Sea on Sunday and Monday will generate a strong southerly swell across Northern NSW, arriving Tuesday afternoon (Mid North Coast) and holding Wednesday with sets around 3-4ft at south swell magnets (again, smaller at beaches not open to the south). 

This south swell won’t provide much of an increase throughout most of SE Qld however south swell magnets and exposed northern ends may see some 2ft+ sets, possibly as early as very late Tuesday, but more likely Wednesday. 

This swell event will then ease into Thursday.

Looking further ahead, and a stationary high pressure system will set up camp in the Tasman Sea from Tuesday onwards, whilst a low pressure trough drifts south from New Caledonia. The squeeze between the two (see below) will set up a building E’ly swell event that could see solid surf next weekend or early in the following week - though it’s too early to be confident in specifics. 

Current expectations are for a small increase around Thursday afternoon (mainly SE Qld and Far Northern NSW), with a more pronounced upwards trend from Friday into Saturday and Sunday. It's certainly looking very promising for much of the East Coast.

We’ll take a closer look on Monday. Until then, have a great weekend!