Some quality windows expected in a round of E'ly tradeswell

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 3rd Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Plenty of fun-sized E’ly tradeswell this week, peaking Tues/Wed, slow ease Thurs/Fri
  • Generally E’ly winds, with a chance for morning offshores Wed/Thurs AM (more likely Southern Gold Coast through NENSW)
  • Small, fun E swell this weekend with light winds
  • Another round of E’ly swell developing next week- potential still for something sizey depending on position and intensity of tropical low pressure- check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Scrappy E’ly swells over the weekend hovered in the 2ft range as trade-wind energy slowly, by degrees added more energy to the inshore surf. Winds were generally mod SE-E/SE with a brief period of light land breezes across NENSW. Today we’ve seen a more noticeable increase in size as trade swells filled into the 3ft range with the occ. bigger set. Conditions are generally average or worse under E’ly winds, with the Points seeing the best of it in terms of wave quality.

Messy but plenty of opportunity on the Superbank for the early

This week (Feb 3-7)

We’ve got a standard summer synoptic pattern at the moment with an active monsoon trough stretched across the continent, extending in the west to TC Taliah off the Kimberley Coast and east to tropical lows off North QLD and near New Caledonia. A high pressure in the centre of the Tasman is directing SE-E winds across the sub-tropics, more NE in temperate regions. High pressure support for the tropical systems which is currently anchoring a tradewind fetch in the Coral Sea weakens substantially over the short term, with E swell potential thus weakening. We’ll still see plenty of fun E’ly trade swell in the sub-tropics but the top end potential has taken a haircut as well as the duration of the event.

In the short run we’ll see E’ly winds continue, more E/SE in SEQLD, E tending E/NE south of the border. At mod strength there will be onshore options on the beachies if you can tolerate mediocre wave quality and jellyfish. Otherwise, we’re looking at waves on the Points topping out in the 3ft+ range, grading a little smaller into the innermost points and bays.

We should see a peak in size Wed morning across the region with 4ft sets on offer and the occ. bigger wave. An area of weaker pressure gradients from the MNC up towards the border looks to see wide spread land breezes there, extending into the Southern Gold Coast before a light/mod E’ly flow kicks in, more E/NE-NE south of Ballina. Definitely worth hunting down a wave Wed.

A new high moves quickly into the Tasman Thurs but it’s weak and mobile and pressure gradients along the region look weak again, with a more widespread land breeze probable. With clean conditions on offer, there should be fun beachies and points around with size coming down a notch into the 2-3ft range and occ. 4ft set.

That easing trend continues into Fri as the trade fetch contracts south-eastwards and dissipates. Fri should offer some workable 2 occ. 3ft surf, easing through the day with light land and seabreezes offering nice conditions.

This weekend (Feb 8-9)

E’ly energy should hold some fun waves this weekend, albeit on the small side. The curve ball is a low near New Caledonia that races off to the SE from Fri. Thats unlikely to generate any meaningful swell on it’s own as it moves obliquely to the circle path but we’ll keep an eye on it for any stalling which could send a more meaningful pulse of E’ly swell our way.

Absent that, we’re on track for a weekend of E swell in the 2ft range, with light winds both days.

There may be some minor S swell added to the mix across NENSW S facing beaches later Sun from a decaying low passing into the Tasman Fri.

 We’ll see how that looks through the week.

Next week (Feb10 onwards)

E’ly to E/NE’ly winds are likely to start next week, although there is substantial model divergence on hand. More tropical low pressure is expected in the Coral Sea and EC is suggesting a stronger supporting high pressure system.

Given that we’d see another week of E/NE-E trade swell with a possibility of something sizier if tropical low pressure intensifies in the swell window. Too early to have any confidence on specifics there. 

We’ll see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then.

Comments

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Tuesday, 4 Feb 2025 at 7:20am

Rubbish this morning. Erghhhhhh it continues

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 4 Feb 2025 at 7:31am

Very, very scrappy 2 occ. 3ft yesterday afternoon- similar this morning.
Just a very occ. bigger set (3ft+?) but low quality.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Tuesday, 4 Feb 2025 at 8:32am

Gee just saw a 17 year old girl was killed by a shark up Bribie island yesterday arvo. So sad. RIP

scrotina's picture
scrotina's picture
scrotina Tuesday, 4 Feb 2025 at 9:38am

light ssw winds most of the night and morning, yet southern gc looked like onshore crap this morning. is that bcos strong onshore winds out at sea?

PL's picture
PL's picture
PL Tuesday, 4 Feb 2025 at 10:07am

Only spot working on SC seemed to be the national park. Despite probably 500 odd folk out between first point and tea tree and not a car park in sight, it was a lot of fun yesterday arvy. Picked up 8 or 9 waves over 2 hours from Tea Tree to nationals. 3 - 4 foot. Enjoyed watching the grommets getting barrelled behind the rock at the pot.

Mata's picture
Mata's picture
Mata Tuesday, 4 Feb 2025 at 12:12pm

Unless I'm mistaken, SC hasn't had one clean 4-6ft day in over 6 months. I can't remember a summer this bad. The longer the drought, the sooner the flood...?

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Tuesday, 4 Feb 2025 at 1:25pm

Noosa looked the goods on the cam yesterday but less than half the size now. Cooly slop continues

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Tuesday, 4 Feb 2025 at 2:57pm

What time Yesday ?

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Tuesday, 4 Feb 2025 at 6:56pm

Late arvo mate

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Tuesday, 4 Feb 2025 at 7:13pm

Tidal. Check again now.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 4 Feb 2025 at 2:16pm

Not an ideal track for that second low pressure system but at least there's some swell progged from it.

Mata's picture
Mata's picture
Mata Tuesday, 4 Feb 2025 at 4:31pm

I'd like to be more optimistic, but it's tracking away pretty quick. My gut says it could be patchy

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Wednesday, 5 Feb 2025 at 7:50am

Way better this morning! Yeeew

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 5 Feb 2025 at 8:39am

Semi-clean but very mediocre 3ft here this morning.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 5 Feb 2025 at 8:40am

Strong down on the MNC, consistent 3-4ft with some 5ft'ers in the mix early.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Wednesday, 5 Feb 2025 at 9:31am

Nice E swell on Nice South swell banks provided some tasty straight hand close outs

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Wednesday, 5 Feb 2025 at 10:26am

Looked pretty rubbish around the traps, found one spot that was real fun though. Nice 3-4ft waves coming through, plenty of lefts which is always nice.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Wednesday, 5 Feb 2025 at 10:47am

Stoked to see the forecast of 2ft or less for another 2 weeks. You'd think the lack of sizey swell would result in some groomed banks but nope! Lots of sand trapped up around or above the high tide line.

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Wednesday, 5 Feb 2025 at 12:15pm

yeah banks are shit here, gutter seems to have gotten wider .......

swellsam's picture
swellsam's picture
swellsam Wednesday, 5 Feb 2025 at 1:56pm

Cant speak for the beachies but the best morning on the goldy points in the last maybe 6 months. Finally got my fix of 4 foot greenmount drainers!