South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 24th May)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• More small S swell pulses Wed/Thurs favouring NENSW, becoming tiny in SEQLD
• Pre-frontal N'ly winds kicking in Thurs, tending SW as front/low form
• Another moderate S swell event expected late Fri into Sat, easing Sun as low forms off Sydney and moves into Tasman
• More small S swell through the medium term favouring NENSW and mostly tiny/flat in SEQLD

Recap

Easing but still solid S swell saw surf in the 4ft range at S exposed breaks yesterday in NENSW, smaller 2ft at S facing beaches in SEQLD with tiny/flat surf across more sheltered breaks. Clean conditions were on offer under light offshore winds. Those conditions have extended into today with a smaller blend of longer period S and S/SE swell to 3-4ft at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD at reliable S swell magnets. All in all, looking very pretty and ruler-edged with the offshore winds.

Still a bit of S swell getting North of the border

This week (May 24-26)

As we come to the end of another (very!) active Autumn we’ve got a typical looking winter synoptic pattern unfolding with a dominant high drifting over NSW bringing settled conditions with a very active Southern Ocean storm track spawning a strong cold front which will impact the state on Thurs. The front and an upper low are expected to form a surface low Fri off the Central NSW Coast. Compared to Mon’s notes this low is now expected to be weaker and much faster moving bringing a smaller, faster up and down in S swell. 

In the short run and we’ll see pre-frontal Nor-wester to N’lies set in through tomorrow, likely starting light W-W/NW in the morning before kicking up through the day. We’ll be hitting the bottom of the swell cycle Thursday so expect just small amounts of S swell, with traces of long period energy wrapping in from powerful fetches below the continent (pumping in Vicco!) supplying some 2ft surf to S facing beaches- possibly with some larger 2-3ft surf at reliable S swell magnets. Mostly tiny to flat in SEQLD.

There’s some discrepancy in the timing of the front on Fri - but by mid afternoon SW winds should be freshening across the Mid North Coast, extending into the Far North Coast later a’noon and the border just after dark. Surf will be small early, with just traces of S swell to 2ft at S facing beaches and tiny/flat in SEQLD. We’ll still see a late spike in new S swell through the a’noon across the lower Mid North Coast but more of a bog standard cold front size, pushing up into the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches through the late a’noon under fresh/strong SW winds. The rest of the region is unlikely to see any increase in size until after dark but it’s worth having a late look across the North Coast just in case of an early arrival.

This weekend (May 27-28)

By first thing Sat morning the Tasman low is expected to be SE of Lord Howe Island as a weakening system, leaving a light/mod W/SW-SW flow across the region, tending to light S-SE breezes in the a’noon. A morning peak in S swell from this system is expected in the 4-5ft range across NENSW at S exposed breaks, smaller 2-3ft at Gold Coast S swell magnets, 2ft on the Sunshine Coast  before easing steadily through the a’noon.

Back to a small blend of S swell trains on Sun with mid period and longer period  S swell keeping surf in the 3ft range across NENSW S exposed breaks , dropping back to 1-2ft at SEQLD S swell magnets and tiny/flat away from those breaks. Offshore winds supply dreamy groomed conditions so it’ll be worth a scout around S swell magnets.

Next week (May 29 onwards)

Light winds are expected for the new week as large high pressure cell moves in across the continent, suggesting a pattern change after 3 La Niña dominated winters.

That will see basically light offshore winds with possible late seabreezes through Mon, before a front Tues brings another couple of days of W’ly dominated winds.

A major frontal system and deep low tracking below the continent over the weekend is again , better positioned for Victoria (we may have to get used to that this winter) with small swell trains refracting back into the Tasman supplying small, long period S swell for later Mon into Tues. Swell periods in the 16-17 second band will see some spots over achieve with sets to 3ft possible across NENSW, although most spots will be much, much smaller. Expect tiny surf in SEQLD with just a handful of magnets seeing a 2ft wave.  Worth hunting around with ideal, offshore winds on hand.

We’ll expect another run of small S swells following Mondays pulse with the next front due Thurs. Current modelling suggests a small/mod S swell in the 3-4ft range across NENSW from this front, with weak high pressure quickly filling in behind the front.

That suggests a quiet start to winter 2023 with a moderate S swell pulse easing into late next week and the weekend and N’ly breezes.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.