South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 6th June)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Tiny surf Mon/Tues
• Decent S'ly swell late Tues (MNC) and Wed (Nthn NSW), still tiny in SE Qld
• Plenty of S swell Thurs in NENSW, still small in SEQLD
• Solid S'ly swell Fri (only small in SE Qld)
• Very large S'ly swell (Nthn NSW) next weekend, with plenty of fun waves in SE Qld
• Offshore winds through the entire period, with a few curve balls of NW/N wind thrown in.

Recap

Plenty of S swell- bigger south of the border, on the weekend. Saturday saw surf in the 3-5ft range at S exposed breaks in NENSW, albeit marred by NE cross wobble running through it. SEQLD had some inconsistent 2-3ft waves across S facing beaches and northern corners under offshore winds. By Sunday winds were light and there was plenty of groomed 3ft surf in NENSW, grading smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD. 

Today has eased right back with tiny/flat surf across most of the region, just a few 2 footers at the more reliable magnets. Winds are freshening NW, tending W’ly as the first of a new series of cold fronts pushes across the SE up into sub-tropical latitudes. Lots of S swell is expected from this frontal progression. Details below. 

Long lines north of the border on Sat

This week (June 6-10)

As Ben mentioned in Fridays f/cast notes we are now seeing a couple of intra-seasonal climate drivers having a strong influence on our synoptic pattern and subsequent swell regime. A strong node of the long wave trough is steering fronts into the Tasman Sea while a negative phase of the SAM (Southern Annular Mode) is bringing the southern Ocean storm track into a more northerly latitude, closer to the Australian continent and Tasman Sea. Both those factors will drive a series of strong cold fronts this week, with a step-ladder effect likely as each subsequent front works on an already charged sea state. 

In the short run and front and post-frontal trough are already moving over interior NSW, driving a stiff W’ly through tomorrow. W’ly gales out of Bass Strait today will generate small amounts of refracted S swell which typically show from the Mid North Coast to Ballina. Expect a few 2ft sets at S facing beaches after lunch tomorrow with tiny/flat conditions elsewhere. 

Wednesday will see a steeper building trend in new S swell through the a’noon as broader fetches of SW gales push off Tasmania and extend down into the lower Tasman.  As for the last series of S swells there will multiple fetches acting across this area at any one time so expect very pulsey swell events over the next week. Size should start small in the 2ft range at S facing beaches Wed and push up into the 3ft+ range during the a’noon, still likely tiny/flat in SEQLD, apart from a few 1-2ft waves at S swell magnets on the Gold Coast. Winds will shift from straight W to W/SW so some S facing stretches will have some wind issues. 

Through the latter part of the week and another front pushing through Thurs continues to drive W’ly winds across the region, with a period of W/NW winds likely through the a’noon. Mid period S swell in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW should finally see some meaningful surf in SEQLD though we are still only looking at 2-3ft surf at S swell magnets, enough to get wet on.

The step-ladder effect should be noticeable Fri as the next pulse of S swell fills in, with more period and size than the previous pulses. More W to SW wind is expected, but size will lift up into the 4-6ft range across S exposed breaks in NENSW, with smaller 3ft+ surf at S facing beaches in SEQLD and some Northern Corners. Be on the lookout for another period of NW to N devil-wind through the a’noon, although it should stay light.

This weekend (June 11-12)

Lots more S swell on the cards for this weekend, lifting up into the next size range through Sunday, as powerful fronts continue to pour through the Tasman Sea. 

High pressure support along an elongated front and another deep low pressure gyre forming well South-east of the South Island super-charge a deep southern fetch Fri into Sat with an area of 20ft seas sling-shotting agressively North-east into the Tasman Sea.

Offshore winds continue Sat, likely straight W’ly with a potential late seabeeze, and size is expected to hold in the 4-6ft range through the morning at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD, before building into the 6ft+ range during the late a’noon as longer period swell trains make landfall. It’ll be getting into the experts only category during Sat a’noon so choose your surf spot wisely.

Sunday looks even bigger. With models showing a significant swath of severe  gale to storm force winds tracking NE into the Tasman on an already super-charged sea state this is looking like a very large straight S swell event. Under current modelling we are looking at size ramping up to 8ft+ during the morning into the 8-10ft range at S facing breaks. Of course, regional Points will be smaller, in the 6-8ft range and SEQLD will be back down in the 4-5ft range at S exposed breaks. Longer swell periods will assist in refracting into more sheltered spots so there should be no shortage of size across the f/cast region on Sun.

Next week (June 13 onwards)

Lots of size into the start of next week and really, strong S swell is expected through to at least mid next week, possibly later, as the complex low pressure gyre remains slow moving under New Zealand and further fronts push into the Tasman Sea pipe. We’ll finesse these evens as we get closer to them but Sundays large pulse is likely to extend into Mon at size- with surf in the 6-8ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 4-5ft in SEQLD. Light breezes are expected as a weak high pressure area drifts over the region. If you’ve got big waves in mind, pencil in Mon.

Size just slowly eases through Tues, though with plenty of long period S’ly energy and size in the 4-6ft range at S exposed breaks in NENSW, slowly drifting downwards through the day. Another cold front is likely to re-activate W’ly to SW'ly winds across the region Tues. It looks pretty special to be honest especially south of the border.

Into mid next week and a renewal of strong S swell is possible as another severe gale fetch pushes past Tas Mon/Tues. Keep the step-up out it’s likely to get used again Wed as surf pushes back into the 6ft range with offshore winds.

Further out and long period SSE/SE swell is likely from under New Zealand into the end of next week or possibly weekend with light winds.

Check back in Wed and we’ll update this very juicy forecast.