South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wed 13th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Long run of small background east swell continuing thru' next week
• Secondsary mid-range E/SE swell building later Thurs and Fri, peaking Sat, easing slowly from Sun, offering fun surf on the points
• Coupla strong S'ly groundswells for Northern NSW over the coming days too
• Winds will favour points and protected spots until the middle of the Easter break

Recap

Easterly swells have eased slowly over the last few days. Tuesday managed 3-5ft sets at exposed beaches in SE Qld, with bigger 4-6ft sets across Northern NSW (smaller on the points), but size has eased a little today, more around the 3-4ft range north of the border but 4-5ft south of the border. A S'ly change pushed across the region on Tuesday and similar winds have prevailed today, favouring the points (early Tuesday offered clean beaches under temporary W/SW winds).

This week (Apr 14 - 15)

A firm ridge across the Northern NSW and SE Qld coasts will maintain moderate to fresh S/SE winds from now into the middle of the Easter break, easing slowly thereafter. As such conditions will generally favour the protected points though we may see pockets of early SW winds across some regions.

As for surf, we've got easing E'ly swells from TC Fili through the rest of the week, though one final pulse from its latter stages is expected on Thursday, up to 3ft+ at exposed beaches south of the border (a little smaller north of the border). The points won't pick up quite as much size either.

Also in the water on Thursday will be some minor S'ly swell in Northern NSW (from a fetch trailing the southerly change that arrived yesterday) and some building short range S/SE energy from the broad ridge which extends from the coast through the Tasman Sea to New Zealand or thereabouts. No major size is expected from this source at first though.

On Thursday afternoon, a new long period southerly swell will push across the Mid North Coast, arriving in Far Northern NSW after dinnertime. This swell will be sourced from a deep low south of Tasmania early in the week.

Long period southerly swells always generate a wide range in wave heights from beach to beach, owing to the acute direction and the interaction between the larger wavelengths and the local bathymetry. So, expect plenty of variation across the coast.

There’s still no reason to deviate away from Monday’s call, which is for a peak around 4-6ft at south facing beaches across the Mid North Coast, smaller near 4-5ft in Northern NSW (smaller at beaches not open to the south) but much smaller in SE Qld away from south swell magnets, thanks to the unfavourable swell direction. South swell magnets north of the border may pick up stray 2-3ft sets, but not many other breaks will see this energy. This swell will then peak overnight and gradually ease through Friday.

Building E/SE swells will continue across all regions on Friday, sourced from a deepening trough across the central/northern Tasman Sea. Early morning will be slightly undersized but late afternoon should reach 3-4ft+ across Far Northern NSW's open beaches (smaller on the points) with slightly smaller surf on the Mid North Coast and across SE Qld's open beaches (smaller again along the points).

Late afternoon may also see the arrival of a fresh S'ly pulse across the Mid North Coast, from a less favourably-aligned low and front south of Tasmania (it'll be a Saturday swell elsewhere).

So, aim for the points over the coming days though the smaller swell sizes and lower swell periods won't create anything like what we've seen in recent days.

This weekend (Apr 16 - 17)

Lots on the menu for this weekend.

First up, the second southerly swell will provide slightly smaller surf on Saturday morning, compared to the late Thurs/Fri south swell (and once again, mainly in Northern NSW). Let's peg south swell magnets on the Mid North Coast around 3-5ft with smaller surf elsewhere. This swell will then ease through the day.

But we have a better east swell on tap anyway.

The developing trough in the central/northern Tasman Sea over the coming days will produce plenty of surf for all regions, and Saturday is looking to see a peak somewhere near 4-5ft across Northern NSW, with slightly smaller surf across the Mid North Coast (3-4ft) and also throughout SE Qld (3-4ft). We'll see fun surf on the semi-exposed points but size may be capped at 3ft or so. Moderate to fresh S/SW tending S/SE winds will keep these locations clean but bump up the open beaches.

A very slow easing trend will then start to play out from Sunday onwards, with local winds also throttling back. It's likely we'll still be focussed towards the same locations as Saturday though; open beaches will probably be a little worse for wear, especially across northern locations (less so on the MId orth Coast where winds may become variable by this time).

Also, yet another strong front pushing under Tasmania on Friday will generate long period southerly energy for Sunday, though it’ll be a brief event, up and down over the course of six or eight hours (probably focused around the afternoon). Surf size should probably come in around 4-5ft at south facing beaches on the Mid North Coast, but it'll be smaller elsewhere (and may not reach the Far North Coast until after dark).

Next week (Apr 18 onwards)

The northern Tasman trough will linger into next week and may intensify a secondary fetch off the North Island of New Zealand, so easterly swells will probably persist for much of next week - no major size is likely, with most days around the 2-3ft mark though there may be one or two periods of embedded bigger surf pushing 4ft. I’ll revise this outlook on Friday.

Sunday's late S'ly swell on the MNC should ease through Monday morning but there'll be sets on offer in the morning.

Otherwise, an amplifying Long Wave Trough across Tasmanian longitudes early-mid next week look like delivering strong southerly swell later next week and into the weekend.

Light winds are expected for most of the week across the Mid North Coast with light SW tending SE winds throughout northern locations.

More on this in Friday’s notes.