South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Mon 7th Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Solid, SE swells Tues and Wed, though windy at times north from Ballina on Tues
• Light winds across the MNC Tues/Wed/Thurs
• Small and windy Fri
• Large surf developing over the weekend, but windy once again

Recap

Windy SE swells over the weekend only favoured protected points and southern ends, and they were much smaller in size than exposed beaches, which saw occasional 6ft+ sets. Today has seen a gradual improvement across the Mid North Coast up to about Yamba, but persistent SE winds have maintained the status quo north from Ballina into SE Qld, once again favouring the sheltered points. 

This week (Feb 8  - 11)

The weekend’s impressive anchored ridge encompassing the Tasman and Coral Seas is now abating in strength, however we’ve still got plenty of waves on the way. 

A broad region of low pressure in the central/northeastern Tasman Sea is maintaining easterly thru’ south-easterly gales (via two seperate fetches) aimed mainly towards Southern NSW, but a healthy percentage is pushing SE energy up into Northern NSW. 

It’s not consolidated enough (relative to its spatial coverage) to generate truly large waves, however the fact that it’s been sitting here all weekend means we can bump up wave heights a little more than the model forecast, especially on Wednesday when the swell periods kick a touch more. 

Tuesday should see continuing surf size of a similar size range to today (5-6ft+ open beaches south of the border, 3-5ft north in SE Qld, smaller on the points) and persistent S’ly winds will continue to favour protected locations (winds should be lighter again south from about Yamba or Coffs). 

Wednesday and Thursday will then see light and variable winds across much of Northern NSW, and light to. moderate SW tending S’ly thru’ SE winds across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld. 

An increase in the power settings Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday should see reinforce Tuesday morning’s size throughout Northern NSW - maybe generate some bigger sets north of 6ft+ across the Mid North Coast - however I’m expecting a little less consistency across SE Qld and perhaps a smidge less size than Tuesday, thanks to the more distant source, and its origin of more southerly latitude.

So, the semi-exposed SE Qld points should still pick up waves but they won’t be anywhere near as big as south of the border. Protected spots will be even smaller, of course. But there'll be plenty of waves.

Wave heights will dip more prominently into Thursday, and early light winds will favour the open beaches. Freshening SE breezes are then expected across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW through the day from a building ridge across the western Tasman Sea, related to a developing tropical cyclone between New Caledonia and Vanuatu. An unrelated southerly change associated with a coastal trough will also approach the Mid North Coast on Friday. 

Both patterns will return windy conditions to the entire region on Friday, with small residual swells including some E/NE energy originating from a pre-monsoonal fetch developing north of New Zealand at the moment. 

This weekend (Feb 12 - 13)

All eyes are on the tropical cyclone developing between New Caledonia and Vanuatu over the coming days. But, I'm keeping my expectations in check. 

It'll initially be positioned inside the Australian East Coast's swell shadow, and the related E/NE fetch (mentioned above) supplying small swells for our region Thurs/Fri will probably weaken, resulting in easing energy from this source into the weekend.

However, we still have plenty of surf on the way for the weekend.

A strong ridge building between a continental high pressure system and the tropical cyclone looks like it’ll be stationary, and will strengthen considerably, generating mid-range SE swells expected to peak later Saturday and Sunday in the 5-6ft range at exposed beaches in Northern NSW, smaller in SE Qld thanks to the fetch's orientation to the coastline.  

Additionally, some sideband E/NE swell will push down from the cyclone later Saturday and Sunday (once it clears the swell shadow later this week) though I’m not really confident on the way this system is evolving - it looks like the fetch will be best aimed towards New Zealand, so as you move clockwise around the compass, wave height potential slowly diminishes through the Tasman Sea, then Southern NSW, Northern NSW and finally SE Qld where we’ll probably just see a glancing round of energy beneath the noisy mid-range SE energy. 

Individual synoptic snapshots of the cyclone look impressive (see below) but I'm a little concerned as to the forward speed of its S/SE trajectory, and so am therefore playing things a little cautious.

Let’s take a closer look over the coming days to see if there’s any more useful information to glean ahead of the weekend. 

Next week (Feb 14 onwards)

All eyes will be on this cyclone. Most of the models suggest it’ll undergo extra-tropical transition pretty quickly, and slide into the NZ swell shadow, with its forward speed expected to be a little too fast to generate a truly memorable swell event. However, we can’t rule out a more favourable path at this stage. 

See you Wednesday!