South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 15th Dec)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small leftovers Thurs, early light winds.
• Small S/SE swell for Northern NSW on Fri, early light winds. Not much in SE Qld.
• Another S/SE swell for Sat (mainly Northern NSW) but winds will swing N'ly through the day, aim for a morning session at the swell magnets. Don't expect much in SE Qld.
• N'ly winds will deteriorate small leftover surf on Sunday.
• Not much for the long term.

Recap

Monday’s solid S/SE swell eased slowly into Tuesday, offering 3-5ft waves at south facing beaches south of the border, with 3ft+ sets leftover this morning. The weekend’s E’ly swell eased right back too on Tuesday. A small NE swell from TC Ruby appeared at select SE Qld swell magnets on Tuesday but largely failed to deliver anything notable. As such, SE Qld has generally seen a couple of days with small surf. Winds have been from the southern quadrant, SW early and SE through the afternoons.

This week (Dec 16 - 17)

Light winds and sea breezes are expected for the next few days so the open beaches across most coasts should see clean conditions before lunchtime. 

Surf size won’t amount to much though on Thursday, as all of our current swells ease back another notch. Expect slow 2ft+ sets at open south facing beaches south of Byron, smaller elsewhere and very little across SE Qld (away from south swell magnets, which will pick up minor energy).

However, we have some new swell due south of the border on Friday. In fact the Lower Mid North Coast may see this late Thursday.

The weekend’s Tasman Low event - responsible for the last six days of swell - has become absorbed into a broad trough occupying the eastern half of the Tasman Sea. 

A couple of fetches have developed on its southern and western flank, generating a couple of sideband S/SE swells that will glance the coast - the first (on Friday) won’t have a lot of size, but should see inconsistent 2ft sets at most south facing beaches south of Ballina, perhaps the odd bigger  2-3ft set at a handful of swell magnets. It'll be smaller at beaches not open to the south.

Only south facing beaches and exposed northern ends in SE Qld will pick up any size from this source; most beaches and points will struggle with slow 1ft, maybe 1-2ft sets at best. 

This weekend (Dec 18 - 19)

Early Saturday has another S/SE swell on the way, generated by a fetch developing today off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island (see below). 

No major size is likely from this source either but I think it’s a little better lined up than the first one, so we may see a few marginally bigger sets at south facing beaches south of Byron. Let’s peg inconsistent sets in the 2-3ft+ range at best for Saturday morning (the Lower Mid North Coast may feel this energy late Friday).

You’ll have to get in early though as freshening N/NE winds through the day will create bumpy, average conditions. The morning should be clean with light N/NW winds though.

We won’t see much size north of the border either, away from exposed northern ends (which may see stray 2ft+ sets if we’re lucky).

This energy will ease into Sunday with winds picking up from the north during the day, strongest south from Ballina. 

So, aim for Saturday morning if you’re planning to get wet. 

Next week (Dec 20 onwards)

The long term looks a little ordinary.

Freshening trades over the weekend may kick up some minor E’ly swell for SE Qld early next week but there won’t be much in it. A small E’ly dip at the tail end - south of Fiji - over the weekend will be monitored closely but I don’t like our chances. 

Elsewhere, a bunch of potential swell sources developing on the periphery of our various swell windows look like they’ll create small flukey surf at best. They include a powerful polar low well south of Tasmania on Saturday (minor S’ly groundswell early next week), and a vigorous but narrow front south of Tasmania on Sunday (same), and 

We’re also expecting a couple of days of northerlies next week too, which will only add further misery to a lacklustre surf outlook.

All in all, make the most of what you see over the coming days, and let’s hope Friday’s update has more promise for the Xmas period.