Oversized to large surf continuing into the weekend
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 15th July)
Best Days: Protected spots experienced surfers Thursday and Friday, Saturday, Sunday morning, Monday morning, Tuesday morning
Clean and fun levels of inconsistent S/SE groundswell to 2-3ft across the NSW region yesterday morning, tiny on the Gold Coast, while into the afternoon a strong northward surge of building S'ly swell was seen along with strengthening wind.
This swell has filled in proper this morning across the NSW region with some reports of size being the biggest they've seen for a long time south of the border. It's mostly around 10ft or so with bigger waves on the outer bomboras, while the swell was 3-4ft or so on the Gold Coast magnets early, though they're now 6ft+ and the points are 4ft or so. Westerly winds are favouring the beaches though they'll ease and tend more SW into this afternoon.
The Sunny Coast has climbed steadily in size but the swell is super straight so you need a good bank or exposed point that rakes in the swell energy. Sets are now pushing 4-5ft.
We should see the swell peaking through the day across all locations as winds hold out of the W/SW on the Sunny Coast and swinging S/SW across the Mid North Coast, more S'ly-S/SE around Yamba and Byron.
This week and weekend (Jul 16 - 19)
The largest and most powerful of the swell should be peaking today, owing to the surge of severe-gale to storm-force S/SE winds around the western flank the 'bombing low' up towards us yesterday.
In saying that we're still seeing a significant and broad fetch of S/SE-SE gales aimed through our southern swell window, weakening slowly into this afternoon.
With this there's no change to the expected size tomorrow, with exposed locations and magnets south of the border in NSW coming in at 8-10ft, while the Sunny Coast will likely back off to 3-5ft on the magnets, 6ft+ across the Gold Coast magnets and 3-5ft or so on the outside points.
Friday should ease a bit further from the 8ft range across NSW, smaller across the Gold Coast and Sunny Coasts and down a touch more from Thursday.
Late in the day across the lower Mid North Coast (MNC) but more so Saturday for the remainder of the regions, a new SE groundswell should be seen.
The source of this will be an intensification of E'ly gales off New Zealand's North Island as the low broadens today, with the fetch extending well into the Tasman and remaining there until Friday morning, breaking down slowly thereafter. Following this as the low continues to weaken we'll still see strong E/SE-SE winds in the Tasman through Saturday, finally breaking completely down Sunday and this will keep all regions more than active into early next week.
Sets to 6-8ft are still expected across the NSW coast Saturday morning, possibly with even the odd bigger one on the lower MNC magnets, with the Gold Coast coming in at 4-6ft across the south magnets, 3-5ft on the outer points. The Sunny Coast should see fun 3-4ft sets on the swell magnets, smaller in more protected breaks.
A drop in size is then due into the afternoon, easing further Sunday though still 5-6ft across NSW in the morning, smaller to the north and then down further Monday.
Now, coming back to the local winds and tomorrow, the MNC will see fresh and gusty W/SW winds, tending S/SW-S into the afternoon. To the north straighter and weaker W-W/SW winds are due in the morning, tending S/SE around Yamba north and variable on the Goldy.
Friday looks to see SW winds across most locations (W/SW for periods in pockets) and gusty S'ly into the afternoon.
Similar winds are due on Saturday with fresh SW tending S/SE breezes, with early pockets of W/SW breezes and then Sunday will see winds swing around to the W/NW-NW ahead of NE sea breezes.
As the swell eases further Monday exposed beaches should remain clean and fun with a W/SW offshore, swinging SE into the afternoon.
Longer term there's a few different possibilities on the cards regarding swell generation but the models still diverge and we'll reassess the charts on Friday.