South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 15th July)

Best Days: Sat: tricky outlook: chance for some fun outer points in SE Qld, and good waves at protected spots/points in Northern NSW with a strong easing S'ly swell and small easing E'ly swell. Winds could become problematic in SE Qld though. Sun: chance for a few pockets of fun waves at protected Sunshine/Gold Coasts spots, in and amongst the onshores. Sun: easing fun S'ly swell in Northern NSW.

Recap: Fun long period E’ly swell across SE Qld with 3-4ft sets at times. A second S’ly swell pushed up the Northern NSW coast during Thursday, holding into today with strong 4-6ft sets at exposed south facing beaches (smaller surf elsewhere). Winds were SW across Northern NSW on Thursday, tending S’ly throughout the day in SE Qld. Today they’re remained SW across Northern NSW but have swung more S/SE at times in SE Qld.

Fun Snapper early Friday afternoon

This weekend (Saturday July 16th - Sunday July 17th)

The final southerly pulse in this recent series is pushing up the Southern NSW coast today and will peak overnight or early Saturday across Northern NSW. It will trend downwards both days but the first few hours of Saturday morning should still offer 4-6ft sets at south facing beaches ahead of the easing trend. The Mid North Coast may already be in declining wave heights by this time though.

Our current E’ly swell will also trend downwards throughout the weekend, following a broad, if somewhat inconsistent plateau in size today.

Early Saturday morning should see occasional 2-3ft sets at exposed beaches and some outer points across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (smaller to the south), with this swell source slowly abating into the afternoon and further into Sunday. Expect long breaks between the bigger waves.

The weather wildcard for the next few days has defied my expectations from earlier this week, and it looks like we have a weekend of funky winds upon us throughout SE Qld, thanks to a deepening surface trough just off the Capricornia coast today. 

In any case, this system will strengthen E/SE winds about adjacent coasts over the coming 36 hours, however wind speeds will tail off with increasing southerly latitude. The strongest winds feeding into this trough are expected to be too far north, and too close to the coast to benefit the Sunshine or Gold Coast regions in any major capacity (re: surf generation), so I’m keeping my expectations pretty low for any notable swell from this source. 

Unfortunately, we’re still looking at a fresh E/SE flow about the Sunshine Coast but I’m hopeful for pockets of SW winds about the Southern Gold Coast at times. Otherwise, expect mainly moderate onshore winds at exposed regions down to about Byron Bay, with southerly tending variable winds south to the Mid North Coast.

This means that for SE Qld surfers, the only clean locations will be those offering protection from these winds. And it also looks like the fetch length won’t be sufficient enough to generate any meaningful short range swell for the coast - we may see 3ft+ peaky E/NE building later Saturday and through Sunday at open Sunshine Coast beaches (a little smaller on the Gold Coast, and nought south of Byron), but it’ll mainly be low quality energy thanks to the associated onshore airstream. 

There are a few exceptions though, being NE facing beaches and protected points north of Brisbane, which will pick up the E/NE swell reasonably well and should also offer some protection from the wind. But we’re literally talking about maybe one or two worthwhile locations at best on Sunday. 

Otherwise, it looks like a fun weekend of easing south and east swell across much of the Northern NSW coast, especially south of about Ballina to the Mid North Coast. 

Next week (Monday July 18th onwards)

Not much happening for next week. Our eastern swell window will remain quiet, and the trough to the north of SE Qld will ease rapidly into Monday, with concurrently easing wave heights. 

Some SE Qld beaches may see early 2-3ft sets on Monday (mainly Sunshine Coast) and with some luck we’ll be back to terrestrially-influenced early morning offshore winds. But there’s a fair chance for some surface contamination from the weekend’s onshores so keep your expectations low. Expect smaller easterly swells with increasing southerly latitude. 

We’re also looking at continuing abating south swells next week across Northern NSW too. The weekend’s easing trend will continue into Monday and Tuesday (becoming very small by the latter), and a minor glancing south swell due Wednesday probably won’t contribute much more than an inconsistent 2-3ft at exposed south swell magnets. It'll be tiny elsewhere.

Winds look pretty good south of the border; light NW tending moderate W’ly on Monday then variable Tuesday ahead of a freshening N’ly Wednesday that may create a few problems away from protected northern corners. NW winds are then expected on Thursday and Friday with small residual south swells, as a weak trough develops along the coast. Current indications are that it won't be much of a swell producer for us, but I'll take a closer look at this on Monday.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!