South Australian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday January 20th)

Best Days: Mid Coast today, South Coast Saturday morning, South Coast Monday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing surf tomorrow with fresh S/SE winds, stronger S/SE Wed
• Small S/SE windswell for Wed, easing Thu
• Small S/SW swell also in the mix Thu
• Moderate E/SE-E tending fresh S/SE winds Thu
• Moderate S/SW winds Fri
• Moderate sized mid-period SW swell building Sat, peaking later and Sun AM, easing Mon
• Variable winds Sat AM ahead of sea breezes from late AM
• Mod-fresh E/SE tending S/SE winds Sun
• Fresh N/NE tending NW winds then SW late Mon

Recap

Saturday was fun down South with peaky, cleanish conditions and surf still in the 2ft+ range under a NE breeze, smaller yesterday morning but cleaner and more lined up.

The Mid Coast was tiny and full Saturday morning with leftover 1-1.5ft sets for the patient, even smaller yesterday morning ahead of our expected, inconsistent W/SW groundswell through the afternoon.

Unfortunately this swell came in under cooked with very slow sets only reaching 2ft into the evening but with the high tide, while today we’ve got small to tiny leftovers to a slow 1-2ft. After an extended great run of swell, one had to underperform at some stage.

This week and weekend (Jan 21 - 26)

The coming week looks like a no go regarding surfing thanks to easing swells and unfavourable winds.

The current, slow W/SW groundswell will ease back through tomorrow with the Mid Coast fading back from an inconsistent 1ft to occasionally 1.5ft on the favourable parts of the tide, while Middleton looks to fade from 1-1.5ft.

A trough moving in later this afternoon /evening will bring with it unfavourable, fresh S/SE winds with Wednesday also being a write-off as the swell bottoms out under stronger S/SE winds.

Winds may shift a little E/SE-E into Thursday morning but with small levels of weak, S/SE windswell and a small mid-period S/SW energy, spreading off a late forming low to our south-west over the coming days. With the low quality swells and morning sickness it’ll be a no go.

Friday will then be smaller and with weak S/SW winds, leaving no options for a quality wave.

Now, as touched on in Friday’s notes, we’ve got a healthy frontal progression due late week, with it developing in the Heard Island region tomorrow evening, pushing east while generating a great fetch of strong to gale-force W/NW tending W/SW winds.

This will produce a moderate sized mid-period SW swell that’s due to fill in Saturday afternoon but persist Sunday thanks to the prolonged nature and trailing weaker fetch of SW winds on the backside of the progression, south-west of us on Friday evening/Saturday.

Middleton should come in around a good 4ft at the peak of the swell later Saturday and Sunday morning, with the Mid Coast only likely to reach 1ft.

Local winds will be an issue with Saturday morning ahead of the swell being the pick thanks to variable breezes, giving into sea breezes from late morning, moderate to fresh E/SE tending S/SE on Sunday.

Monday is the pick as the swell starts to back off from the 3ft range off Middleton under a fresh N/NE’ly ahead of a NW tending SW change as another trough moves in from the west.

Longer term there’s plenty more Southern Ocean activity on the cards but winds will be tricky and mostly out of the south. More on this Wednesday.