Nias, Mentawai, South Sumatra forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 5th May)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period besides Monday and Tuesday (smallest)

This coming week and next (May 6 - 13)

Good waves the last few days with a mix of S'ly and SW swells, while today a peak in SW groundswell should have been seen with variable winds.

A new long-period S'ly groundswell should be seen later today, peaking tomorrow morning with 4-5ft sets due across exposed south facing breaks, while the SW swell should persist at 3-5ft, with both easing off slowly through Saturday from 3-4ft and further Sunday and Monday.

Light variable winds will persist through the coming period, developing a slight S/SE bias from later next week.

Our small pulses of SW groundswell due from the middle of next week now look to be pushed back more to later in the week and more so the following weekend and week starting the 16th of May.

Instead small background S'ly swell energy is due Wednesday to 3-4ft or so, with some better aligned SW groundswell for Thursday and Friday to 4ft.

The weekend should see the first larger pulse of SW groundswell building Saturday and then peaking Sunday afternoon, produced by strong back to back polar lows projecting north-east from south-east of South Africa. We should see exposed breaks building to 4-5ft+ later Saturday and then further to 6ft+ Sunday but with those S/SE winds.

The longer term charts are indicating some better polar frontal activity through the southern Indian Ocean, producing swell for the week of the 16th, but more on this in the next update.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph