Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 8th August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• SE swell holds fun surf Tues with light winds
• E/SE swell supplemented by new E swell Wed with light N’ly winds
• E swell holds Thurs AM before easing with N’ly winds
• Surf easing Fri with small NE windswell on offer
• New E-E/NE swell likely to build Sat
• Large storm surf from the E Sun, holding at large sizes Mon and easing into Tues
• More E swell on the radar for later next week

Recap

Small NE windswell leftovers Sat in the 1-2ft range were overlapped by new S swell Sunday with size in the 3-4ft range and SE winds. Today has seen size in the 2-3ft range with variable winds tending NE. Lots of swell energy inbound this week, becoming sizey and stormy on the weekend.

This week and next week (Aug8 - Aug 19)

The building blocks are now in place for an active  week of surf from the SE. A complex, multi-centred low is stationed over New Zealand with a strong (1029hPa) high located equidistant between Tasmania and the South Island offering excellent cradling support for the low. A high pressure cell over the interior moves SE tomorrow to re-inforce the oceanic high. Several juicy fetches will send swell across the Tasman this week with a low moving E of Bass Strait on the weekend expected to see large storm surf develop.

In the short run and variable winds are on the cards tomorrow as high pressure drifts SE over Tasmania. Expect fun levels of SE-ESE swell in the 2ft range.

This size pops up a notch to 3ft on Wed with continuing variable winds, tending NE in the a’noon. 

E swell from a Cook Strait fetch sees quality surf in the 3-4ft range on Thurs with winds tending N’ly as high pressure drifts out into the Tasman Sea. 

This pulse eases back Fri with leftover 2-3ft sets early, easing during the day and more variable winds as another weak high drifts over the state.

Into this weekend and a low approaches from the Bight with an increased NE infeed likely to see a building trend in new E-E/NE swell, likely up into the 3ft range.

By Sunday the low is expected to be E of the Gippsland Coast with gales aimed straight at the Island state (see below). Expect onshore winds and surf to build rapidly into the 8-10ft range with only the most sheltered spot surfable.

This swell slowly eases through Tues/Wed while onshore winds ease, possibly tending W’ly depending on the movement of the low.

Check back Wed for details on that.

Further ahead and it’s possible we’ll see another large E swell as a deep low forms in a trough in the Central Tasman.

There’s still too much model divergence to have confidence in any outcomes at the moment but check back Wed for the latest revisions.