Plenty of action from the S, then NE next week

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Sep24)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Strong S swell Sat PM, holds into Sun AM before easing
  • More S swell Mon next week
  • E’ly windswell builds Tues next week, peaks Wed, tends to NE winds swell Thurs and eases into Fri
  • More S swell next Sat, easing Sun, with onshore winds


Marginal surf on offer over the last two days in NETas with a small NE signal yesterday replaced by an equally small 1-2ft S swell today. Continuing W’ly flow through today has blown surf flat.

This weekend and next week (Sep25-Oct1)

Few small changes to Wednesday’s f/cast notes expected. 

A deep low just to the SW of Tasmania with a strong front attached is expected to transit into the Tasman sea through tomorrow with gales adjacent to Tasmania generating a steep increase in S swell through the a’noon. Expect sizer to build into the 3-5ft range through tomorrow with fresh W’ly winds turning SW during the a’noon.

This size holds into Sun morning with winds improving from the W then NW during the day as synoptic W’lies re-establish in the wake of the front. 

A high pressure cell to the south of Tasmania builds an intense ridge through Wednesday with strong, onshore winds adjacent to the coast developing a short period E’ly windswell in the 4ft range during Wed. 

This E’ly windswell tends to better quality NE windswell during Thursday as a fetch develops and strengthens off the NSW South Coast and adjacent to Bass Strait. Expect 3-4ft NEwindswell during Thursday with E’ly winds abating and tending more N’ly during the day.

Friday looks a better bet for improved surface conditions as winds tend more W’ly and leftover NE windswell eases from 3-4ft back to the 2-3ft range.

Into next weekend and a cut-off low is expected to migrate E of Tasmania on Sat with an adjacent fetch of S’ly winds will whip up a rapid spike in S swell though the day, accompanied by fresh S’ly winds. That should see surf quickly build into the 3-5ft range, although with wind and swell coming from the same direction it’ll be a challenge to find a quality wave.

Conditions improve marginally Sun, but with an easing swell trend in place. Light onshore winds Sun may tend N’ly through the a’noon. 

Longer term and more cut-off low activity is expected suggesting further quick spikes in E and NE swell as lows pass to the south and over Tasmania.

Stay tuned for a full update Mon and have a great weekend.



Loafmode's picture
Loafmode's picture
Loafmode Saturday, 25 Sep 2021 at 2:21pm

Four foot Saturday arvo ? Your on drugs mate