Poor weekend, a few more options next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 1st January)

Best Days: Keen surfers Monday, Tuesday morning southern corners

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Weak windswells from the E tending NE until Sun
  • Stronger NE swell building later Sun, peaking Mon with E/NE tending SE winds
  • Possible better swell potential late week and into next weekend

Recap

Happy New Year! Nothing of note yesterday with a S/SE change, while today we've got a weak S/SE windswell from the trough.

This weekend and next week (Jan 2 - 8)

The weak trough that pushed up our coast yesterday has (as you can see) not generated any major swell with it at all.

It'll remain weak as a high moves east under the state, swinging winds locally E/NE tomorrow, resulting in the windswell tending around to the same direction, similar Sunday.

Size wise nothing over 2ft is expected tomorrow or Sunday morning, but into Sunday afternoon the trough should deepen, directing a slightly better fetch of strong NE winds towards us, persisting into the evening before weakening Monday.

A better increase in NE swell should be seen from this source, kicking to 2-3ft by dark Sunday and peaking Monday to a more consistent 3ft. Unfortunately with the trough sliding south down our coast into Monday, conditions will remain bumpy with a moderate onshore E/NE tending SE breeze.

Tuesday looks cleaner for southern corners with a S/SW breeze, but the swell will be fading from a small 2ft.

Longer term we've got some more interesting developments with the remnants of the trough linked to Monday's swell due to be re-invigorated by an injection of cold air mid-week, resulting in the formation of a low in the Tasman Sea.

Initially the low will sit a little far north than ideal to generate any decent swell, with some fun E/SE energy spreading off the base of the low. We may see some E/NE swell filling in from its south-eastern flank late in the week but more so next weekend but we'll have to keep a close eye on the developments for late next week and beyond. Have a great weekend!