Excellent waves Thursday and Friday

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 7th July)

Best Days: Tuesday morning, Thursday, Friday, Saturday

Recap

Friday's SE swell backed off to a small 1-2ft on Saturday with the odd bigger bomb under light offshores. Sunday was poor with a building short-range E'ly swell and increasing onshore winds related to a broad strengthening trough in the Southern Tasman Sea.

This weather system reached a peak in intensity through yesterday and a peak in size was seen today to a sloppy 3-5ft with variable winds from the E through the day.

This week and weekend (Jul 7 - 13)

The trough responsible for Sunday's and today's E'ly swell is weakening to our east and with this we should see a drop in size overnight.

In saying this, micro pulses of E'ly swell should continue across the coast tomorrow and Wednesday due to a weak fetch of E'ly winds being aimed towards us extending to New Zealand and reaching the gale-force range.

Tomorrow morning should be 3-4ft still, with a slight drop in size through the afternoon ahead of a pulse back to 3-4ft or so on Wednesday afternoon.

Winds will be best tomorrow morning and offshore W/NW early before tending more N/NW through the day and persisting into Wednesday from the N-N/NE favouring northern corners.

Of much greater importance is Thursday's large and powerful pulse of E/NE groundswell.

The models have come into alignment regarding the intensification of a deep low pressure system over New Zealand's North Island as a weak tropical depression feeds off a deep pool of cold air moving east across the Tasman Sea.

What this will result in is a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force E/NE winds being projected towards us through tomorrow, setting in motion a large groundswell.

This swell is expected to arrive through Thursday morning and build rapidly to the 6ft+ range across open beaches.

Winds will become a bit of a problem though as a vigorous cold front crossing the coast brings with it moderate SW tending stronger S/SW winds. This will favour protected southern corners, where the swell should be hitting with maximum power.

The swell should hold well into Friday as the low continues to aim a healthy fetch of E/NE gales towards us through Wednesday before swinging more NE and out of our swell window into the evening. Open beaches should ease from 4-5ft under excellent W/NW winds.

The weekend is looking fun for those who can't get a surf in through the week, as the swell hangs in the fun 2-3ft range Saturday before really starting to easing into Sunday.

Longer term there's nothing too major on the cards, therefore make the most of the coming week of waves!

Comments

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 9:54am

Yep........ Anyone with a few spare bucks who want to add surfing the east coast of tassie to their bucket list should consider jumping on a plane..... The whole coast should be pumping.....

carvin60's picture
carvin60's picture
carvin60 Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 6:25am

im stuck here in central bc canada. but if i could, id jump on a plane catch up with ged mate in hobart and then book it up to bicheno area,surf till i couldnt paddle anymore at r.d b...s and then follow up with a oyster pie and a pint!sounds like it will be perfect in that corner eh mr sheep dog?

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 6:29am

oyster pie and a pint ...awesome

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 7:37am

And I thought I was bad hankering for an oyster pie and a pint at 7:35am when there is Simba doing the same at 6:29 - you animal.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 9:18am

Sorry boys... But you can't come down.... A bloke named hem- stret is waiting at the airport with a shotgun.... Anyone with a board bag.... Bang!!!!
And Hem- stret.... Dunno why you posted your objection on the muscle thread, where there had been over 171 comments.... Including comments from blowin and simba.... Pretty popular thread that one.... Before your input, there were NO replies here.... NONE...
Now hemmy, Dunno if you live on the east coast of tassie, or if you are a towny from Hobart or launy, but maaaaaaate...... Cobbbbaaaa..... If you are from the east coast, like my friends who own a certain take away..... You'll know how fucked up things really are re' the tassy economy...... Now, we could lock away all of tassy like the greenys and some greedy surfers want to..... But that means the girls at the take away lose their hours and go on the dole..... Are you on the dole? Do you know someone in tassy on the dole?...... Highest unemployment rate in Australia..... Now if a handful of surfers come down and spend some money in our fucked up state, I wont mind sharing a few waves..... Jesus, hemmy.... 350 km of coast...... Top temp 13'.... Rain forecast...... I'm sure you'll find an uncrowded spot....

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 12:50pm

It's too late Sheepy, I'm on my way. The Tassie winter waves are too cold for me though mate, I'm coming strictly for the oyster pies.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 12:58pm

Scallop pies, mate.... Scallop pies..... Curried scallop are the go..... Freakn A+.... And if you like a nudge of the whiskey (not my go), there are some boutique whiskey makers down here getting some pretty big international compliments...

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 1:58pm

Not a fan of whiskey Sheepy, but I reckon I could eat an entire Seabeds worth of scallops wrapped in pastry. I'd rip one straight from the jaws of a Tassie Devil.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 2:00pm

Well you see, blowin, my wife is a baker at a certain bakery.... I am rapidly turning into walrus......

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 2:06pm

Your a lucky man Sheepy. Get em while you can mate. Just think of it as banking energy for future all day sessions.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 2:51pm

It's not good mate..... You know those grossly overfed old dogs that waddle around and collapse on their stinky beanbag.... Then fall asleep and bark and run while they sleep? Might have to go to "uplifts eyre peninsula centre of physical excellence and wellbeing" for a 4 week tune up ;)

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 3:28pm

Too much effort at the Eyre Institute of Physical Excellence.

Your better off flying to Bali, check into the most comfortable hotel you can afford , stock your room with lemonade , asprin , pirated DVDs , books and extra toilet paper then get a car to a local creek mouth - I personally recommend Canggu or Balian - take a good hearty drink of the water then return to your hotel , lie back and wait for the weight to start falling out of you. Too easy.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 3:46pm

Yeah........ Or I could just scrape up some roadkill of the huon highway, Make a stew.... Saves going to a shit hole just to shit lol

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg Thursday, 10 Jul 2014 at 9:48pm

Saves going to a shit hole just to shit.... Actually loled. Best surf trip advice.

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg Thursday, 10 Jul 2014 at 9:57pm

Sheepdog's pitch to Agatha Christe. Poorot, looking for pastries in French Polynesia after being burnt in Bali

hem-stret's picture
hem-stret's picture
hem-stret Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 4:19pm

Hey sheepy. Wish I could bring out the shotgun. Im a bit prickly cause im sick of good places turning into shit fights. You quote a comment directed at dc green in an area that i used to go to a few times a year. Full of fuckwits and flyins now, destroyed a lot of the good vibes and after surfing with over 50 clowns at grandmas with smuckr buzzin around I thought here's another place to fucked to bother with. Apart from the real estate crew the locals dont see a cent. Just teeming with bonythons and less waves allround
.You may think tassie wont go down that path but it seeems everyones a surfer now. Ive come back from a semi secret spot o/s and in 12 months theres 2 new surf camps and heroes falling out of the sky. I normally like the bullshit u go on with but if crew are gonna come here stay for a week or two. Fly ins wont spend fuck all. Stay for the flat days and the swell. Checkout the place, it is worth it. Btw, I did the east coast shuffle, spent $50 on a bit of flour at the bakery, and got skunked by onshote fluff which is regular for that coast. I have huge respect for the locals here, they actually (well, 90 per cent of ya's) are fun to surf with and its a pleasure to surf with some old school surf ideals and smiles. Im having to re learn how to have old school fun in the queues. I have been suprised at the healthy numbers in lineups from the east to the very south. More in agreeance with you than not, be careful what u wish for. And lets fucken promote tennis or some other sport. I replied on the other thread so your comments would piss off from the front page but yas had to keep flashing the neon signs. Im not on the dole but I have been. Who gives a fuck. Ive also paid shitloads of tax and realise 2 out of 5 days work at least is for this fucked govt, probably where your concern should lie.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 4:45pm

I know what ya' sayin' hemster.... I bailed from the sunny coast.... Was gods country back in the 80s/early 90s.....
But it's all about balance....... That area "dc green", and the sunny coast are a bit more weather friendly than chillblain island though..... "Greens" is also not far off the main highway between churchville and natanuiland.....
So some of us down here would like a few more people to come down re' the tassie economy.... Some of us don't..... But it's all about balance I suppose..... Cheers hemster...... Hope you get a few.........

hem-stret's picture
hem-stret's picture
hem-stret Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 5:55pm

Yeah Sheepy, dont know if youve been back to the sunny coast lately, the nicklin highway went from tumbleweed blowin down the 4 lanes, to a traffic jam from mooloolaba to caloundra and a permanent speed camera (thanks Bligh). If i could give an unsolicited tip to all bakers (as I did see another closed down at Sorrell on the way east today), go checkout Port Elliot bakery in Victor Harbour. That place made me a bakery junkie. Wasnt unheard of for 40' trips just to go to there and stuff chops. Fresh cream, good value, a million styles of cakes, buns, pasties and pies. Top stuff, it could be a tax deductible research trip and you could get amongst some of the magic surf that is found at middleton point .............the latter a dubious but necessary surfing experience...........you wont need ya tow board.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 6:00pm

PE Bakery, best bakery going around, full stop!!

hem-stret's picture
hem-stret's picture
hem-stret Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 5:59pm

"Greens" is also not far off the main highway between churchville and natanuiland.....not sure what you meant here tiger, im pretty thick...........

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 6:26pm

That place YOU were talking about hemster... "DC green"...... Ummmm... "City of churches"????? and Footballer Nic Natanui????? ;) Join the dots champ :p

What I am saying is there is alot of traffic driving past that spot you were talking about (dc green... Same with the sunny coast,,, Even more with the sunny coast, being so close to bris vegas.... No where near the same amount of passersby driving along east coast tassie...

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 6:35pm

oh Poirot,not again.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 6:40pm

LOL....... :p

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Thursday, 10 Jul 2014 at 12:51pm

Wow!!!!! Pumping!!!!!!!