Craig

Strong S/SW groundswell for Saturday, then fun SW swells next week

Bali and Mentawais forecast​​​​​​ by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 25th May)

Best Days: Bali Saturday through Tuesday, and then Wednesday onwards, protected spots in the Ments Friday through Sunday, more exposed breaks Monday and then Wednesday onwards

This week and next (May 26 – Jun 2)

Bali: The surf has continued to ease from earlier in the week, but our new long-period S/SW groundswell for Saturday is still on track.

This swell filled in across WA today and should peak through Saturday to 6-8ft across exposed breaks before easing off steadily through Sunday and Monday, smaller Tuesday.

Moderate to fresh E/SE trades are expected over the coming days (lighter and more variable each morning), with stronger trades developing Tuesday and Wednesday, easing off again late week.

Our next increase in swell will be inconsistent SW groundswell energy from a broad but distant polar frontal progression south-east of South Africa and Madagascar.

A good pre-frontal fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds will be trailed by similar winds from the W/SW, generating two separate SW groundswells.

The first should build Wednesday, reaching an inconsistent 6ft into the afternoon, persisting Thursday before easing off into Friday.

Longer term some larger and more consistent S/SW groundswell is on the cards for later the following weekend/the week starting the 5th, but more on this Tuesday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Ments: Small waves today, but tomorrow we should see the long-period S/SW groundswell filling in across the region, building to a strong 6ft on the sets by dark, easing back slightly from a similar size Saturday morning, more noticeably through Sunday and early next week.

Fresh SE winds will limit surfing options over the coming days to more protected breaks, with more favourable and variable winds kicking in from Monday.

The inconsistent SW groundswell energy is due to arrive later Tuesday, with Wednesday seeing good strong 6ft sets at exposed breaks, easing back slowly from Thursday.

We may see winds pick up again from the SE late week and into the following weekend, but we'll take another look at this Tuesday.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph

Comments

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Sunday, 28 May 2017 at 5:47pm

Hey Craig
Do you think there's a chance that swell due to hit Bali on the 5th/6th could be a touch bigger than what the models are forecasting?
Pretty impressive wams
Thanks mate

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 29 May 2017 at 2:38pm

As per this forum post, I'd be cautious on the model data in Indo for the next week.

https://www.swellnet.com/forums/website-troubleshooting/352217

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Monday, 29 May 2017 at 7:23pm

Cheers Ben

gibbsy's picture
gibbsy's picture
gibbsy commented Monday, 29 May 2017 at 2:32pm

the next fortnight is stacked as far as I can see

gibbsy's picture
gibbsy's picture
gibbsy commented Thursday, 1 Jun 2017 at 3:30pm

any updates on this fellas?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Thursday, 1 Jun 2017 at 3:44pm

Craig's away at the moment. Next update on Tuesday. Sorry for the inconvenience.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Tuesday, 6 Jun 2017 at 10:05am

Next couple of weeks are looking primo

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 6 Jun 2017 at 12:21pm

That they are!!