Craig

Easing surf ahead of a good new S/SW groundswell Saturday

Bali and Mentawais forecast​​​​​​ by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 23rd May)

Best Days: Bali most days, biggest tomorrow and Saturday/Sunday morning, Mentawais Wednesday, protected spots from Friday through next week

This week and next (May 24 – Jun 2)

Bali: Building SW groundswell energy through the weekend peaked yesterday with large clean sets on the Bukit reefs.

This swell is now easing and will continue to drop over the coming days, slowed a little by a reinforcing S/SW swell.

A low point is expected on Friday morning, ahead of a new long-period S/SW groundswell building through the afternoon.

This groundswell has been generated by a vigorous polar low that developed north-east of Heard Island Sunday, with satellite observations picking up a fetch of storm-force W/SW winds.

This low is slowly weakening while moving east towards WA, resulting in a large long-period S/SW groundswell for Saturday. Also in the mix will be a long-range SW groundswell, generated by a distant polar low south of South Africa, with some weird double ups likely at times.

We should see the S/SW swell building Friday afternoon and peaking Saturday to 6-8ft across exposed breaks, easing off slowly Sunday and further into early next week.

A small reinforcing S/SW groundswell is due later Sunday/Monday morning but only to 4-5ft or so.

Of greater importance is some better long-range SW groundswell due mid-late next week.

A broad and sustained polar low will generate multiple fetches of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds through our south-western swell window, south-east of South Africa later this week, producing a prolonged SW groundswell event.

A slow building trend is due Wednesday, peaking Thursday with inconsistent 5-6ft+ sets, but we'll have another look at this Thursday.

E/SE trades will persist over the coming days, strengthening mid-week before easing again into next weekend. Variable winds are due early each morning creating clean conditions.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Ments: Pumping waves seen the last few days are now on the ease across the region, with smaller surf due over the coming days as the swell direction tends a little more S'ly.

Into Friday though we'll see the mix of long-range and more consistent S/SW groundswell fill in, building to 6ft on the sets by dark, and easing from a similar 6ft or so Saturday morning.

Easing surf is expected into the start of the following week ahead of the new SW groundswell Wednesday and Thursday. The Ments should see a touch more size than Bali due to it being closer to the swell source and unfavourable SE winds developing from Friday this week should weaken temporarily mid-next week. More on this Thursday.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph