Large consistent S/SW swell building tomorrow, secondary pulse early next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Bali and Mentawais forecast forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 8th September)

Best Days: Experienced surfers over the coming days, more manageable waves from Wednesday afternoon

This week and next (Sep 9 - 16)

Bali: The surf continued to pump yesterday, but into today a drop is due from the 5-6ft range across magnets, smaller into early tomorrow.

Uluwatu on fire, photo by Todd Goudie

There won't be much downtime tomorrow though, as a large consistent S/SW groundswell fills in. There's no change to the expected size with magnets expected to build from the morning, reaching 8-10ft by dark.

Saturday morning should see similar sized sets as a reinforcing S/SW groundswell fills in, easing into the afternoon and then further from 8ft+ Sunday morning.

The surf should continue to ease through Monday ahead of a late kick in new S/SW groundswell.

This groundswell will be less consistent than the coming days swell with it being generated by a vigorous polar low that's developed south-west of WA.

A fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds are being generated in our southern swell window, with it arriving later Monday, kicking to 6-8ft late in the day, peaking overnight and easing from a similar size Tuesday morning, if not for the odd bigger set at times early.

A steady drop in size is due through the afternoon, further into the end of the week.

Longer term some inconsistent S/SW groundswell is due into next weekend and early the following week from strong but distant polar fronts.

Size wise each pulse looks to come in around an inconsistent 4-6ft across magnets, but more on this Tuesday.

Coming back to the winds, and gusty E/SE trades today should ease back into tomorrow and tend more SE weaker into Saturday and Sunday. We should see moderate to fresh E/SE winds kick up again from Monday, easing back again later next week.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Ments: After excellent waves the last few days, the swell has eased back into this morning but it's only a temporary low point ahead of tomorrow's large S/SW groundswell.

There's been no real change to the expected size with exposed breaks due to build to a large consistent 6-8ft+ by dark tomorrow, easing from a similar size Saturday morning. Magnets across the more southern islands are likely to see 10ft bombs late Friday and early Saturday.

The swell will ease through the afternoon and further Sunday from 6ft+, smaller Monday.

Later in the day Monday but more so Tuesday a new S'ly groundswell is expected, generated by a strong polar low that's currently south-west of WA.

A fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds will be produced just within out swell window, with an inconsistent but good long-period S'ly groundswell coming in Tuesday morning to 5-6ft+ across south magnets.

The swell will ease quickly from later in the day, much smaller into the end of the week.

Conditions are looking good from tomorrow with variable winds for the most part, increasing a touch from the W/NW into Monday.

Longer term some inconsistent S/SW groundswell is on the cards for next weekend from frontal activity along the polar shelf. Inconsistent 3-5ft sets are due into Saturday afternoon and Sunday, with some similar pulses on the cards for the following week. More on this Tuesday.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph

Comments

crip's picture
crip's picture
crip Friday, 9 Sep 2016 at 9:26am

Hi Craig.
Could you look into your crystal ball and see if there's anything likely to stir in the Indian Ocean for later in Sept? The WAMS are looking pretty dismal other than 1 system around Heard Is 19-21st. I'm over in eastern indo the last 2 weeks of Sept and it looks like I'll be getting skunked for the 1st week. I'm hoping that the last week of Sept picks up, and that system might kick up enough swell to push that far east. It's not showing up on the 16-day forecast yet but I just thought I'd ask your thoughts.
Cheers.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Friday, 9 Sep 2016 at 10:23am

Hey Guys,
Thought I'd pen a little instalment of the Ol' Gary G's indo travel journal. I've been on the road for the last week or so and it's had it's ups and downs. Gary signed up for a boat trip with the promise of some sort of Supersuck, which I gotta tell you, sounded just like Gary's kind of cruise.

Well, spoiler alert, it's a sham. After 3 days of sailing when I Was preparing myself, much to the faux-disgust of the other people on the boat, with a bit of au natural tanning; we rock up and it was nothing like I'd imagined.! What a disappointment.

Anyway, to lift Gary's spirits, thought I'd try and spot the #1 celebs in the Southern hemisphere: th'e m'ad h'ueys', so I booked in a bit of RnR at the Kommune resort in from of the wave now known as 'Gary's'. Maaaan is it my kind of place. Gary gets up just after the wind swings, throws on the spray-on boardies, and tells all the crew how he ripped it up.

The other day, Gaz dreamt up the scheme or all schemes. After cutting his foot on the side of the pool, Ol Gaz, the trickster, rubbed a bit of sand in it and hopped up Te beach from the wave screaming 'ah, bugger, last time I try an alley oop like Gary Gary Florence! Landed on my fin and cut my feet, someone call the WSL and get me an injury wildcard'

After a quick tip to the docs, Gary cleaned up while looking forlorn and mumbling about the 'delayed release of his feature film'.

Heading off down to Bingin now to repeat the act. Shhhh don't tell anyone.

theween's picture
theween's picture
theween Friday, 9 Sep 2016 at 10:32am

Any news on this week's WA shark incident? Deafening silence so as not to promote debate on our endangered friends?

tonybarber's picture
tonybarber's picture
tonybarber Friday, 9 Sep 2016 at 12:43pm

Just another shark ... What's new.

tworules's picture
tworules's picture
tworules Sunday, 11 Sep 2016 at 7:41am

You can make it Bigin Garry, marry a local trans-bender, start a disco.The place needs something like you! Only hope you can fit in because when that place is on you are going to have competition.