Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 23rd June)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period (experienced surfers Tuesday)

This week and next (Jun 24 – Jul 1)

A fun pulse of inconsistent S/SW groundswell should be filling in across the coast today, with it due to hold into tomorrow morning. Exposed locations should ease from 3-5ft through the morning, further into the afternoon.

Our better S/SW groundswell for Saturday is still on track with solid 5-6ft+ sets due across south swell magnets, easing a touch later in the day and further Sunday from 4-6ft and further into Monday.

Moderate to fresh E/SE trades are due from tomorrow through until Sunday, tending more variable into Monday and early next week, increasing again from Thursday. Variable winds are due each morning with these trades from local land breeze effects.

Of greater importance is the large long-period and consistent S/SW groundswell for Tuesday.

The polar low generating this swell has already formed in the Heard Island region, with satellite observations picking up a healthy fetch of 50kt SW winds aimed towards us.

We'll see these core winds to 50kt (even possibly a touch stronger at times) persist through this evening and tomorrow morning as the low slowly projects north-east towards WA in a captured fetch motion.

From tomorrow afternoon a slight weakening of the storm is expected with it passing east under WA and out of our swell window Saturday morning.

A large long-period and fairly consistent S/SW groundswell should result, arriving later in the day Monday and kicking to the 5-6ft range by dark. A peak I expected Tuesday morning with strong 10ft+ sets across exposed breaks, easing slightly into the afternoon and then much more steadily from 6-8ft Wednesday morning, further into Thursday as those E/SE trades kick back in.

Now, it's worth keeping in mind the more variable winds through Tuesday may see the Bukit not line-up as perfectly as it would under trades, but the strength of the swell should overcome this somewhat.

A reinforcing swell possible for Thursday isn't on the cards anymore, with the size continuing to drop into the the end of the week.

Longer term we're looking at a good moderate to large S/SW groundswell event next weekend followed by some fun swell into the following week, but more on this Tuesday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph