A series of strong fronts have been powering through the lower Tasman Sea over the last day or two and although not very well aligned for the East Coast, are generating a series of southerly groundswells that’ll impact the region for the short term.
So, the synoptic situation is as such: the Tasman Low responsible for our current swell is tracking towards New Zealand post-haste, and its swell source has long been shut off inside our swell window. So a rapid easing trend is expected into tomorrow.
The new E/SE swell currently building across the region will peak overnight and trend downwards steadily through Saturday.
Looking like a good finish to the week.
A complex, deep trough currently lies off the west coast of New Zealand, and it's expected to be an active source of swell for the entire NSW coastline for the rest of the forecast period.
The current building short range south swell should hang around into Saturday morning, before easing a little throughout the day. Of more interest is the likelihood that local winds will throttle back after lunch, and possibly swing to the SW during the afternoon, courtesy of a small low forming east of Bass Strait, deep within a broad trough stretching right along the East Coast.
Nothing major to finish the week. A broad, stationary high in the Bight is directing a moderate southerly wind across southern NSW and it’ll keep a lid on quality for the coming days.
Mainly small surf for the rest of the week, originating from a couple of sources. However, whilst still quite some time away, there are several indicators suggesting that we could be on target for the first East Coast Low of the season early next week.
Sunday is shaping up to be quite interesting and I would recommend keeping a close eye on proceedings throughout the day as there’s a good chance we’ll see a few windows of opportunity.
No major changes for the rest of the week. Small residual swells are expected on Thursday with early offshore winds expected to swing moderate southerly in association with a shallow change. There won’t be any major swell increase from this system - just a possible small afternoon bump in windswell at best.