Corona Open Mexico: Early Forecast

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

TL;DR

  • Small, background swell to 2ft for the first two days of the waiting period
  • New, inconsistent S'ly groundswell for days 3 and 4 around 3-4ft
  • Reinforcing, inconsistent SW groundswell for days 5 and 6 to 3-4ft
  • Better SW groundswell likely for the final days of competition

There’s a palpable sense of expectation as the Woz approaches the eighth event of the CT, the Corona Open Mexico.

For one, surfing is coming off an Olympic high and the powers that be would be hoping to deliver while interest in the sport remains heightened.

Secondly, after an almost two month break, the surfers are returning to competition, and as Mexico is the third-last event of the year it’s crunch time for anyone hoping to make the Top 5, or to maintain their position within the five. Currently, only Gabriel Medina has a Finals spot locked up.

Lastly, after a fifteen year hiatus, the Woz is returning to Barra de la Cruz. Though it was held only once, the 2006 contest was both sensational and controversial. Can the 2021 version also deliver?

Situated on the southern Pacific coast of Mexico, midway between Puerto Escondido and the town of Salina Cruz, Barra is at the western end of the Salina Cruz coast, a coastline defined by multiple sand-bottom, right hand pointbreaks. The geology and sand delivery system is not unlike that of Australia’s East Coast north from Newcastle, with protruding headlands giving way to large sandy bays fed by sediment from multiple rivers flowing down from the coastal mountains.

The other defining feature of the Salina Cruz coast is, unlike much of the Pacific coast which faces south-west, it faces south, even tending south-east. This limits the swell direction needed to turn on the numerous pointbreaks. The bread and butter swell direction for much of Mexico is south-west, however it needs to be very large from that direction to wrap into Barra, and even then it’s heavily reliant on sand quality - think Scotts Head on a big south when the sand is deep.

Coastal alignment of the Oxaca region and Barra de la Cruz

The very best direction for Barra - and all the regional pointbreaks - is south. The storms that form south of Rapa Nui and send swell sweeping up past the Galapagos, nearly parallel to the South American coastline, perform the best.

Being exposed to the whole South Pacific Ocean, and being winter you'd expect there to be a plentiful supply of long-range swells from strong Southern Ocean storms.

Alas, the main engine room where these storms develop is expected to see higher than normal pressure this week. You see, with travel times of five to seven days from the Southern Ocean, up into Mexico, we need the see swell producing storms developing from now through until Thursday week.

While the roaring forties will remain subdued over this coming week, there are still a couple of swell producers showing up on the charts.

Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly forecast for the week Monday 2nd August to Monday 9th August. Source: ECMWF

Firstly, we’re expected to see a relatively weak polar storm forming east-southeast of Chile generating an inconsistent S'ly groundswell, followed by two separate mid-latitude lows firing up east of New Zealand, generating inconsistent SW groundswells.

The first swells from the S and SW are due through the middle of the waiting period, with the second and likely better SW groundswell, for the end of the waiting period.

As discussed above, Barra's alignment to these incoming SW groundswells isn't ideal, and with the long distance between the source, it'll be compounded by the lack of consistency.

Coming back to the first, most favourable swell generator, and that'll be a polar frontal system firing up in the south swell window, east-southeast of Chile. While not overly strong, a good, broad fetch of strong to gale-force S/SW winds will be projected northwards. This will hit the point the best, arriving through days three and four of the waiting period (that being Thursday and Friday the 12th and 13th respectively) likely offering inconsistent 3-4ft sets.

Surface wind forecast and source of the first S'ly groundswell

At the same time as this swell is being generated, a slow moving mid-latitude low will form just east of New Zealand. What this low lacks in strength, it'll make up for in longevity with a slow moving fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds due to be projected through Mexico's swell window for a couple of days, weakening slowly into Friday.

Surface wind forecast and the source of the secondary, reinforcing pulse of SW groundswell

The big factor with swell from this low, especially the initial stages is how much effect the French Polynesian island chain has on swell shadowing. Once the low moves further east of New Zealand the islands will become less of an issue, but it'll be interesting to see play out.

Satellite imagery identifying the swell shadowing of the French Polynesian island chain. Source: Google Earth

Timing wise this secondary SW groundswell looks to arrive through the middle of the waiting period, providing similar inconsistent 3-4ft sets on the outside of the point, though running smaller inside compared to the S'th energy.

Locally winds look to be favourable at this stage, offshore in the mornings ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

Looking longer term, and a secondary mid-latitude low is due to fire up east of New Zealand early next week, being positioned a little further south but being a little stronger, hopefully generating a slightly better SW groundswell for the end of the waiting period, but we'll continue to keep an eye on these developments and providing running commentary in the comments section below.

Comments

Sprout's picture
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Sprout Tuesday, 3 Aug 2021 at 4:22pm

Does the Great Circle path have any influence on swinging swell around FP?

https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2016/11/08/secret-life-g...

Craig's picture
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Craig Tuesday, 3 Aug 2021 at 4:32pm

Yep it does, but from that storm to the east of NZ, it's a fairly straight line with a slight curve. You can do it yourself on Google Maps.

Sprout's picture
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Sprout Tuesday, 3 Aug 2021 at 4:34pm

Sweet, cheers Craig!

memlasurf's picture
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memlasurf Tuesday, 3 Aug 2021 at 9:45pm

Pity it is so small. Do they have a back up site as I really want to see the pros in something other than beach break surf like they have been all year.

Jono's picture
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Jono Tuesday, 3 Aug 2021 at 10:08pm

Quite often I see your avatar and my first thought is that Erik Logan is speaking, and I reckon in this case it definitely works, as he's probably just sent this exact message as a memo to his executive vice senior vice president.

Island Bay's picture
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Island Bay Wednesday, 4 Aug 2021 at 8:52am

Puerto in lockdown. Will this area escape?

belly's picture
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belly Wednesday, 4 Aug 2021 at 9:30am

Event window is Aug 10-19 (which is Aug 11-20 our time - I think?).

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 4 Aug 2021 at 9:37am

Actually, our late evening Aug 11 is their morning on Aug 11.

They're 15 hours behind.

Expect 8am their time to be 11pm our time.

belly's picture
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belly Wednesday, 4 Aug 2021 at 9:40am

Roger that - making the Tour De France look like an early night

Gowsa's picture
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Gowsa Wednesday, 4 Aug 2021 at 12:37pm

Hope the Pros are Vaccinated.
This delta is a whole new ball game.

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Thursday, 5 Aug 2021 at 6:30pm

Mexico doesn't even have a covid test for entry.
Same with some other countries in central america.
No big doomsday outbreak happening there.
They've obviously called BS on this global pandemic agenda that rich corporate western countries like Australia are balls deep invested in.
Mexico was the 4th most affected country about a year ago they wete saying.
They started giving out ivermectin to patients and pretty quickly their covid wave drastically dissipated.
Same has happened in India.
You won't hear or read that in the media in Oz though..

peabo's picture
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peabo Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 12:31pm

India is still getting 40k cases a day, but it has dissipated because everyone has fucking had it already. A recent study found two thirds of people over six in India had antibodies from previous exposure to the virus, effectively providing a level of herd immunity.

And you suggest Invermectin is responsible? LOL. How many of the many millions of people in third world India who contracted this do you reckon had hospital (or even any form of medical) treatment for Covid? Give me a break.

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 1:39pm

You sir,are balls deep invested in the constant 24/7 complete manipulation propaganda campaign that's being waged by MSN news and all other similar media outlets in lock step with many governments.
If someone can't see that's what's happening 18 months into this thing by now,then they're going to remain bent over that barrel taking it for as long as their dominator wants,and while not particularly enjoying it,are going to be justifying somehow it's necessary for their own good,along with 'the greater good'.
If everyone in India has had it,then they have in Europe and the US too according to their outbreak stats.
Yet still the situation gets pumped as nowhere near over.
In fact it's being pumped now as getting worse again in the US and will happen in Europe too before their winter.
MSN tell you that all the time.
Or rather groom you and manipulate you to accept it when it happens.
You'll probably hear nothing of Mexico and other similar countries though.
No hype,no sensationalism,no fear mongering propaganda campaigns,no lockdowns,and plenty of early over the counter medications to treat people who do get sick.
Oh and no multi billion dollar deals for rushed vaccines (and booster shots every 6 months) with zero long term heath studies for those countries too.
Seems like the WSL agrees if they're holding an event there wouldn't you think?

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 1:45pm

Oaxaca, Mexican state near Barra de Cruz, is in lockdown.

Mexico has administered close to 70 million doses of vaccine.

No sure what you are on about Jetson?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 1:47pm

Snap, there ya go.

Jetson, all you guys just spurt out the same catch phrases every time. It's getting old fast.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 1:46pm

Um, the Oaxaca regions is currently in a two week lockdown..

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 2:44pm

The last news i saw on mexico was about a month ago and it was all open as normal.
Some states may have reintroduced some restrictions,but i'll bet they come and go,and being mexico,they'll be sleepy siesta style lockdowns compared to developed countries.
If it wasn't,WSL would of cancelled the event already.
And the way things are going in Australia,there'll be no Aussie leg next year and much fewer Aussie surfers on tour.
No one will want to be doing 2 weeks quarantine again,and i believe most pros won't get covid vaxxed.
I have a feeling this was part of Julian Wilson's thoughts,but he can't go saying that on record or he gets shamed and ridiculed by the ever present and ready mainstream media to pounce on anyone who has any kind of high profile that dates speak in any way shape or form against the pro covid vax narrative.
You're talking about people who compete in the most selfish sport in the world lol.
Believe me they rate concerns over their own health way above some kind of mass media propogated 'do it for your dad,gran,community' etc message.
They're mostly young,and all fit and healthy guys and girls who haven't been scared and manipulated into believing a flu like infection is going to knock them over i'm sure.

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goofyfoot Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 3:45pm

This is a terribly long winded way to admit you were wrong jetson

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 6:25pm

Yeah i wasn't up to date with current info there before i posted but i stand by my points i made.
If it was a lockdown in Australia the event would of been cancelled at the bat of an eyelid.
If the events 3 months ago had of been in the last month or so in Sydney they would have been off for sure.
The Snapper and Bells event last year cancelled when it all started,and cancelled again this year because of covid bureaucracy.
If Oz doesn't work out how to operate with covid one way or another,and holds the nation ransom to reaching vax targets by certain dates before opening up more,the WSL will pull the pin next year on the Oz leg if most of the pros don't get vaxxed and balk at sitting in their hotel rooms for 2 weeks again i reckon.
Just my opinion,of which we all have one.

seal's picture
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seal Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 4:24pm

jetson, what you believe, feel and think really have no basis of fact.
Fact is, most of the pros have had vaccinations, especially if they intend on surfing in Tahiti, as it is a requirement of entry to Tahiti for the surfers wanting to compete at Chopes.

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 6:14pm

Well that's been kept very quiet then if so.
Care to post the links or sources to that 'fact'?
I doubt Slater is getting it and he's been known to sway slightly towards believing conspiracy theories over the years so if he's at Chopes then that'll be near proof to me it's not compulsory lol.
More like they'll have to do extensive covid testing and quarantine on arrival.
Not even fast communist evolving Australia has compulsory vax for entry.
Yet.

groundswell's picture
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groundswell Saturday, 7 Aug 2021 at 8:18pm

You seem to assume a lot about pros like Kelly and Julian have you got any sources to Kellys conspiracy theories or Julians real intention of leaving the tour?

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Saturday, 7 Aug 2021 at 11:45pm

Did you see me wrie it was 'fact' or my 'feeling'.
Feelings and personal opinions can't be backed up with sources sorry.
Who knows what they really think.
Kelly,holding the kind of sway over the WSL and mainstream surfing culture as he does by being the GOAT,hasn't come out and said what he thinks of it.
He would get a lot of publicity and praise from the mainstream media if he announced a pro vax stance for the tour for sure.
And a lot of scorn and ridicule from them if it was the opposite.
Perhaps,like most people that don't agree with it in positions of influence,he just stays quiet instead to not attract negative attention to himself.
But again,just my feeling and opinion.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 8:47am

"Kelly hasn't come out and said what he thinks of it."
Actually, he has. Just a day ago, and again two months before that. He's also make his opinion heard years ago on this topic.

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 9:57am

What about a pro covid vax stance?
Years ago before this covid situation even existed?
Please do show your proof of that lol.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 9:59am

Erm, he's not pro Covid vax. Doesn't seem to be pro any kind of vax, actually.

That was my point.

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 10:56am

Well i missed your point then sorry.
What did he say?
That it should be people's personal choice if they get covid vaxxed or not i guess?
I missed anything he's said about that recently.
And i do ever so vaguely think i remember him talking about this kind of thing a long time ago,but because vaccination wasn't really a topic most people gave much thought to until recently,i can't be certain if i read about it or not.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 11:18am

I was responding to your comment that "Kelly hasn't come out and said what he thinks of it."

2 months ago, Kelly said: "It hasn’t been studied long enough to know long term cons… Think I’ll wait for the antibodies naturally if I get covid".

https://www.monsterchildren.com/are-pro-surfers-getting-vaccinated/

Yesterday, Kelly reposted Michael Yeadon (former Pfizer scientist, now an 'anti-vax hero'), adding his own words below: "Something to ponder. But I'm no epidemiologist".

I reckon it's pretty irresponsible to push controversial theories to an audience of millions, with a cheap caveat as your opt-out.

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 12:49pm

Well that article supports 'the feeling' i had regarding pro surfers and covid vax.
Note the pro vax slant of the editor that only just ventured a little into ridicule and shame territory.
I said it in another reply here,surfers are involved in one of the most selfish sporting pursuits out there.
That's just by defination of the circumstances of what they do more than their personalities.
And most pros i believe,Slater definitely among them,would be hesitant with these covid vaccines,given it's known their new,experimental at least partly,if not wholey,and there's many unkowns still with them.
And perhaps,like me,they see a mass campaign of fearmongering and pro vax propaganda and coersion,they find it highly un nerving and suspicious,
They're going to be concerned of the risks to their own health with these still largely untested vaccines over a cold or flu (that is what is it for most)they have a 99.7% chance of getting over.
Or is it 99.6,99.8, maybe even 99.9?
Whatever it's something around those.
I've travelled a lot of the world,so have the pros.
Travel opens your mind extensively and makes you much less fearful,and ask some questions,of everything the government and media keep banging you over the head with regarding international events.
No one is a conspiracy theorist just because they don't trust and believe everything the government,and the media they control,tell them.
Although these days they are if they don't buy everything they're being told by the above it seems.
Or rather they're being painted as by them.
Anyway it remains to be seen whether compulsory covid vax comes in for the pros by next year's tour.
It'll create some waves if it does i'm sure.
It'll put Kelly into his long coming retirement i bet.

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geoffrobertford Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 8:35pm

Agreed Ben. Incredibly irresponsible.

DanCB's picture
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DanCB Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 8:17am

Hi Jetson, would you be able to let our family friend know that it's all a conspiracy? Their father died of COVID. Then, the son (brother of our friend) got special permission to travel over to India to look after his mother. She then got sick with COVID and died too. Then the son ended up dying of COVID while over there. This will make our friend feel a whole lot better to know that it's all propaganda generated by the news. You might want to explain any connections with the 5G network and how Pete Evans' red light can cure it too?

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 10:26am

I care nothing for Pete Evans and 5g theories and things like that.
Yet another that jumps to conclusions and labels someone who doesn't agree with the government and media a conspiracy theorist ant vaxxer.
I care everything about rushed vaccines that are having short term side effects much more often than is being admitted to,and that have no data whatsoever on long term side effects.
Nothing can go wring with that later when billions of people have had it right?
Next year will be much more telling.
Enough people will have been vaxxed that,if it was like any other vaccine in history,a significant difference would of been made and we'd be coming well out of this pandemic.
The fact governments here and many other places have signed booster shot contracts for later variants that don't even exist yet shows this isn't ending anytime soon,and the situation will go for years one way or another.
No need for you to care what i think anyway,you've lost friends in India to covid.

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 10:32am

Jetson, have a read of this, a great article re safety of the vaccines etc and there's been no real corners cut at all..

https://www.smh.com.au/national/how-do-we-know-vaccines-won-t-have-long-...

Some key points..

"Most phase-three vaccine trials – that’s the big one you do before you apply to roll it out – follow up volunteers for just 12 months"

"We are no longer in a situation where we have five months of data on 30,000 people.

We now have more than a year of data for some people, and an extraordinary 4.18 billion doses of vaccine administered worldwide (at the time of writing) in which we can look for safety signals."

"Why are the COVID vaccine trials so short?

To get the answer, we need to look not at vaccines but at the thing they are acting on: our immune system. Remember, a vaccine by itself does not do anything. It’s the immune system that needs to spot it, respond, and develop immunity.

If something is going to go wrong, it will probably go wrong there. But the thing about the immune system is, it is designed for speed."

Troppo's picture
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Troppo Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 7:39pm

That was a worthwhile read Craig. Thanks for sharing.

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Craig Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 7:44pm

No problems.

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 9:12pm

I've read equally well written articles in the case against these covid vaccines,and actually they don't mention anything about 'lizard people'.
They mention the risks of auto immune diseases,cancers and the like.
So who wrote this article is taking the piss out of those that aren't onboard with the pro covid vax stance.
Denigrating to ridiculing and shaming the covid vax hesitant,like all mainstream media does.
Well written article apart from that.
And that is why i don't trust mainstream narratives on this issue.
One way or another they end up trying to make out anyone who doesn't agree is an idiot,no matter how subtley.
If they're trying to win everyone's confidence,they need to change their tack somewhat.

DanCB's picture
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DanCB Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 10:51am

Sure thing buddy (Jetson). I'd like to see your data on the short term side effects? Which peer reviewed scientific journal might we find these data in? The Lancet? Or possibly on #followersonfacebookknowbetterthanscience?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 10:51am

It put my Mum in hospital.

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DanCB Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 10:53am

I'm sorry to hear that Blowin. I hope she's doing alright?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 11:03am

She seems a bit better better now, thanks. Although she’s not actually that old ( 75j it seems that any health issue is a bit of a setback.these days and hopefully the loss of vitality is temporary.

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 11:04am

That's good to hear. Hopefully she continues to recover.

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 11:19am

Ahh here i go getting ganged up on by people that obviously don't search for alternative views to what the mainstream media and government feed the masses 24/7 lol.
I mean even if you believe all they say,you've gotta be able to see they're running the biggest manipulation propaganda campaign in history right?
Especially with their complete whitewash of everyone and anything that runs counter to what they say and push.
All other big events in history allowed the opposition to have their say in public.
Nah not this time just cancel,delete,block,sensor,ignore,shame,riducule etc etc.
Rather suspicious to me and kind of looks like brainwashing on a mass scale to only believe what you're told by them but hey,who cares if you buy it all without question right?

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Where-is-albo Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 12:16pm

You clearly haven’t had much to do with governmental institutions. The inefficiencies and pure chaos experienced on a daily basis make the notion of an international conspiracy very unlikely.
You can’t honestly believe that for the first time in human history, every government, in every country have decided to put aside their differences to convince the world to put a needle in their arm?
So little to gain from such a momentous achievement.

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 12:21pm

Exactly ha!

And you actually have to try your hardest with this current Gov to get a jab, quite the opposite to the current conspiracy theories.

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 1:02pm

Which to me begs the question.
Why are they all so efficient then with using all mainstream media outlets and platforms to silence,and even shame and ridicule,anyone that doesn't agree with them?
That includes plenty of doctors and scientists that have spoken out against lots of things since it all started,and straight away were relegated to the conspiracy theory anti vax nutter group,when before that they were as respected and prestigious as any that agree with it all.
I won't trust any organization that does that,when they were supposedly part of a democratic free speech society until covid came.

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 1:07pm

At i guess,i would presume most people here have had very little to do with government organisations.
Is that a pre requisite for having an opinion?
If so then there's very few qualified people here to comment i'm sure,regardless of which side of the debate they're on.

Where-is-albo's picture
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Where-is-albo Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 2:08pm

Tongue in cheek Jetson. You are free to your opinions. I hope you get to the bottom of it.

Cacadajy's picture
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Cacadajy Tuesday, 10 Aug 2021 at 6:24am

Jetson, you seem to feel persecuted by basically anything or anyone who doesn't read your posts and simply applaud.
The smh article linked by Craig above makes no mention of those opposed to the vaccines, it simply explains the process of vaccine approval. Yet somehow you took it as an attack on you and your beliefs.
Also I don't need to have had anything to do with "government organisations"
to do my own research and make a decision in the best interests of my family, me and the community I live in, in that order.

Where-is-albo's picture
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Where-is-albo Tuesday, 10 Aug 2021 at 7:58am

Cognitive dissonance.

bbbird's picture
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bbbird Tuesday, 10 Aug 2021 at 7:29pm

Im in two minds about cognitive dissonance.

stunet's picture
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stunet Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 10:15am

Ha ha ha

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Where-is-albo Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 10:30am

Haha nicely done.

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Tuesday, 10 Aug 2021 at 9:00am

Well i see what could be construed as an attack on people who don't want to be jabbed with these experimental vaccines.
Everything media portrays and government says more or less does.
Mate i missed indo last year,this year,likely next year (even if your vaxxed,new variants remember) and could be ever again if i don't play ball and sell out my stance.
So yeah i can be pissed off.
Most Aussies are still cool with that kind of thing it seems.
She'll be right mate i'll just grab another beer and kick back and it'll all go away soon though right?
They were saying that when it started and thought in a month or two it'd pass i remember.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Tuesday, 10 Aug 2021 at 9:06am

"While the Indonesian Pediatric Society recommends vaccinating against 16 different diseases, only five are mandatory and free for all national health insurance (BPJS) participants. The mandatory vaccinations are: Tuberculosis (TB), Hepatitis B, Polio, DTP (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis) and Measles."

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jetson.rover Tuesday, 10 Aug 2021 at 10:18am

It's compulsory covid vax for entry to Indo since their latest emergency declaration about a month ago.
Even to move within parts of it including bali.
I heard it's not enforced as strongly with foreigners as Indonesians.
And Indo being Indo,likely greasing some palms could get one around it,but not like we can go there and test out how strict they are with it or anything lately.
It's not known yet if it's just a requirement during the emergency order timeframe,or whether it will remain implemented as an ongoing requirement.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Tuesday, 10 Aug 2021 at 10:44am

Have you been vaxed for Tuberculosis, Hepatitis B, Polio, DTP or Measles?

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Tuesday, 10 Aug 2021 at 2:11pm

Some of them yes.
Now obviously i don't compare this covid vax situation with any other vaccine in history.
Label me an anti covid vaxxer if you want,but i can assure you i'm not an anti vaxxer in the correct term of the meaning.

Cacadajy's picture
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Cacadajy Tuesday, 10 Aug 2021 at 9:16am

Just getting more and more lost with who you are annoyed with and why.
Why don't you make a call on what's best for you, your expectations of where you should be able to travel and the community you live within.
There probably will be consequences either way. But that is just living.

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Tuesday, 10 Aug 2021 at 10:10am

It's past time to give back this thread to people that are interested in what the swell will be like for the comp in mexico i reckon.
Most don't care and aren't here for virus and vax talk.
Not even i expected this to go so far off on this tangent.
Everyone is different.
I'm not gonna change your mind and you won't change mine.
He thinks this,she thinks that,they think this or that etc.
In short i don't agree with the way things are and where they're heading and believe things will never go back to how they were before.
There's too many global economic changes that are still evolving and that's before even taking into account the health issues with the virus or the vaccines.
That's my parting statememt.

Jono's picture
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Jono Tuesday, 10 Aug 2021 at 10:26am

If you really want vax talk, here you go... nearly 3000 comments and still going strong:

https://www.swellnet.com/forums/wax/506540

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 8:04am

FEAR v FEAR. For me its a big no to get the vax. Have anyone here looked up the deaths in Australia from the Covid vaccine on the TGA website? Its hidden right in front of your faces. They are 90 days behind, however until the 10th May there has been 160 deaths with Covid vaccine listed as the reported outcome. Don't believe me? look it up.
Now just imagine that number after the last massive push to get everyone vaccinated.
This is something youre not going to see on mainstream media

geek's picture
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geek Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 8:03am

Stop spreading fake news you moron. Straight from the latest TGA report you mention:

"The TGA has received and reviewed 399 reports of deaths in people who have recently been vaccinated and found six that were linked to immunisation. These deaths were all related to the first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine – five were TTS cases and one was a case of immune thrombocytopenia (ITP)."

Can the anti-vaxxers go back to the relevant forum posts and we leave this thread for the MEXICO SURF FORECAST. Fuck me

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burleigh Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 8:10am

Thats not fake news at all geek. Select the 3 vaccines on the tga website and look at the adverse events. reported cases over 16k (which could be as minor as sore muscles, however they list 160 deaths. Im on the website right now.

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 8:12am

Just had a look, can't see anywhere that it reports this. Got a link to the page?

geek's picture
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geek Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 8:15am

We don’t have 3 vaccines available in Aus either…

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 8:18am

Exactly.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 8:38am

We have 3 approved vaccines in Australia. here is the link:
https://apps.tga.gov.au/Prod/daen/daen-entry.aspx

type covid into the select medicine section, a dropdown will appear with 3 medicines. Select them, enter your dates (you will only be able to select until 11th May. Then let me know what you see.
Im happy to be proved wrong.

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 8:47am

Cheers, I see now.

But there are these qualifiers..

It'd be good if you could dig deeper into the data though.

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burleigh Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 9:04am

69? are you channeling your inner Mikey Wright?
You can also say the exact same thing for the deaths of Covid. endless reports of people passing away with the virus, not due to the virus.
Either way i dont believe we can blindly trust governments and big pharma or main stream media.
These numbers of deaths reported will increase rapidly when data is released over the next three months. Something that the government or media are not reporting and the sheep follow.

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 9:11am

That was looking at AZ.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 10:49am

So ive backed up my original comment with TGA. You have now seen this for yourself, and knowing that we can use the same argument of did they die from or with, whats your thoughts?

Chaz's picture
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Chaz Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 6:02pm

You can go to Indo,but you have to stay min four months and quarantine both trips and you will probably get covid while there and die ,but if you dont believe it's real go and have a crack and stop giving us all a migraine with your delusions.

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jetson.rover Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 7:59pm

I'd have a crack tomorrow if the government would let me go.
Got friends that have lived there for years and they haven't died of covid.
A couple of them have gotten a bit sick recently and it was probably that they thought,but it was to them exactly what it is for most.
A mild flu like sickness..
Perhaps you should stop letting the media and the government scare you so much you have brown stains on your underpants.
It's such mindless gullibility that can be shaped,bent and manipulated into whatever intent those with far reaching power aim to achieve.
The human history books are chock full of it.

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etarip Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 8:19pm

Jetson, you freedom loving patriot.
With a little imagination and drive I’m sure you can get yourself to Indo. Just go mate. Go.
You’re carrying on like a victim. No one is making you take the vax. No one’s holding you down.

But, when you want to travel, be prepared to have your right to choose vax / no vax come into conflict with countries that see things a little differently and exercise their right to make it a condition of entry.
That’s it. In a nutshell. It’s your choice. Your choices have consequences. Deal with it.

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jetson.rover Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 8:36pm

I was just replying to someone that came along late to the debate that i thought was over that had a go at me.
I'll have a go back if i feel like it.
There's a new article now on day 1 of the contest in Mexico,so this thread about the swell report for it is about irrelevant now.
Same this sidetrack on people's views on getting vaxxed or not.
Seems others are intent on keeping it alive.
You know you're onto something if people can't leave it alone lol.

Chaz's picture
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Chaz Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 8:33pm

Hey Jetson ,My mate and his wife left 3 weeks ago ,all vaxed up and ready to rock'n'roll so stop talking and start walking!!!!yewwwwww

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jetson.rover Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 8:58pm

Really good for them then.
I'm not jealous or anything.
I can wait a while.
I've been watching the media predict,and hence also groom,everyone who reads or watches them,scenarios they think could happen,will probably happen,even will actually happen,depending on what day it is usually.
All in lock step with each other.
More lockdowns and restrictions due to new variants resistant to the current vaccines.
That means waiting for the next round of booster shots.
And the vaxxed will have fewer freedoms than the unvaxxed because,as everyone would know now,covid can still be spread by those who are vaccinated.
I'm only going by what they've been saying for months now in various stories both in Australia and America and Europe.
I'll take it as it's going to happen if 'their science' is saying this.
Booster shot deals have been signed in advance of 'new variants' not even existing yet.
One can shrug it off,ignore it,pretend it's not happening etc,or one can read it as what's coming for quite a while yet.
They've been warning you don't take it as just what i think.
the coming northern hemisphere winter is going to shed a lot of light on this whole thing.
Not too long now to wait and see if all their predictions come true.
Big pharma will have many billions more dollars to gain if it does.

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 9:05pm

What's your point mate? Viruses morph and continue evolve so they can continue spreading. This has been known forever, hence the need for boosters, new tweaked vaccines to tackle this.

That's also why there are concerns re superbugs in hospitals as we see bacteria becoming resistant to normal antibiotics and other medications as they evolve and become stronger.

If you're not up to accepting the world is being crippled by this virus right now and we're all trying to do our best to push through and move on living with it eventually, then that's your loss.

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jetson.rover Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 9:34pm

You do know you're watching a completely one sided intense fearmongering propaganda campaign with everything about this virus right?
I'm not denying it exists,but i believe it's being deliberately shoved down all out throats intensively with the hope we all submit to what those that are pushing it want.
Which is covid vax for all.
Stamp out as thoroughly as possible all opposition thought and debate to it.
That's never happened in western democratic societies before like it is now and and it's a large red flag.
Read what MSN news puts out numerous times every day.
Absolute fearmongering and pro covid vax theories while complete denial and ridicule of everyone and anything that isn't on the same side.
A total brainwashing tool has never been more obvious to me.
Read enough of it and it doesn't take long to see the descrepencies and contradictions with their own ever changing information.
Even outright lies here and there against historical facts that were always the bedrock of medical practice until covid came.
Information warfare i'd call it.
When you know which organisation is the founder of that news media company,which also happens to be the largest financial donor of some of these vaccines being intensely pushed,as well as numerous other similar entities,then am i a conspiracy theorist for connecting some dots and making some presumptions about their intents and conflicts of interests?
Ok i am,and people who think like me are.
According to everyone that just reads all that stuff and believes it without ever scratching the surface of what they're presenting anyway.
That's most people,they know it and that's how they want it to stay.
i certainly hope it doesn't but it's not up to me is it.

Cacadajy's picture
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Cacadajy Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 9:49pm

Cmon move on. It can't be one sided when you are yelling at everyone the anti vax rhetoric. The exact other side of what you claim is a one sided propaganda machine. See 2 sides.
Anyway, I've made a choice as have you let's just get on with It and do our best to pass on a liveable world to our kids and the next generation.

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jetson.rover Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 9:58pm

I was actually replying to Craig on that one.
Was i yelling?
I don't think i was i've just been replying to someone who replied to me.
YOU DON'T HAVE TO READ WHAT I WRITE YOU KNOW.
There i just really yelled for you.
To anyone else,don't reply so i can move on please lol.

Cacadajy's picture
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Cacadajy Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 11:06pm

Bye buddy.

Edit. Sorry that came across as condescending. Again each to their own. You make your call and I will make mine. Let's just not lecture each other if we don't make the same choice.

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 9:53pm

You've got no idea what I read, watch, research and all you sheep go the MSN, brainwash calls etc.

It's quite funny when you lot are all sprouting the same shit.

I'm getting vacc'd, you're not and let's leave it at that. All the best.

Cacadajy's picture
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Cacadajy Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 10:04pm

Bravo.
On to more important things... They going to run the comp today?

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jetson.rover Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 11:01pm

Obviously MSN it seems then lol.
All the best to you and i might get vaxxed when it's not a mass human trial anymore.
How many vaccines have been released to the population before they completed their clinicsl trials before?
Well there's several now.
All very recent and for covid only.
For the whole world at that.
I'm watching the show with interest,thanks that you'll clear the road and make it either safe to travel later,or make it clear to stay the hell off it lol.
People like will owe you later either way.

Cacadajy's picture
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Cacadajy Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 9:10pm

Cmon Jetson probs time to move on. Let's leave this thread for what it was created for.
You have made a decision that best suits you. Let's let everyone do what suits them hey. I don't think you need to take on the burden of awakening others to your truths. You do you OK.

Dargsol's picture
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Dargsol Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 12:48pm

Or low socioeconomic countries can't afford to lockdown?

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 5 Aug 2021 at 8:28am

There's been no real change to the outlook besides a possible small, tropical low bringing onshore winds for the first day of the waiting period, when it'll be small in any case.

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Hutchy 19 Thursday, 5 Aug 2021 at 1:56pm

If the surfers are vaccinate this strain might be resistant .

Lambda evading vaccine?

While the highly infectious Lambda variant of Covid-19 may or may not be deadlier than any of the other strains - meaning the vast majority who contract it won't be hospitalized or die - researchers at the University of Tokyo have warned in a new study that it may be vaccine-resistant, according to Newsweek.

Like the Delta variant, Lambda is highly transmissible but Japanese researchers believe that three mutations in the variant's spike proteins make it more resistant to antibodies induced by vaccination.

Lambda, which is also known as the C.37 variant, is responsible for 1,037 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S., according to data from the GISAID Initiative, which promotes the rapid sharing of information about influenza and coronaviruses.

The variant was first identified in Peru in August, 2020, where it has now become the dominant strain of the virus, and it has been reported in 29 countries including the U.S. -Newsweek

"...because the Lambda variant is relatively resistant to the vaccine-induced antisera, it might be possible that this variant is feasible to cause breakthrough infection," reads the paper, with "Vaccine-induced antisera" referring to antibodies which arise from vaccination.

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 9:59am

The possible larger, stronger SW groundswell for the end of the waiting period is still on track.

It all revolves around this big low forming east of New Zealand early-mid next week. Fingers crossed it arrives before the event finishes.

The same low will also generate a significant groundswell for Teahupoo.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 10:01am

Looks like a good Teahupoo storm.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 1:48pm

Are we still keen on the Coronavirus Open jokes?

It’s still got legs, people.

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 1:49pm

Ha.

Roker's picture
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Roker Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 4:10pm

Corona Open pres. by Quicksilver.

Quicksilver: moving or changing rapidly and unpredictably.

seaslug's picture
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seaslug Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 3:50pm

Mexico joins the red list, Britons urged to leave now and return to the UK

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 3:56pm

Likelihood of the event being canned?

eel's picture
eel's picture
eel Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 4:01pm

Very high. Jetson what do you think?

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 9:21pm

No because it's not in Australia.
And they didn't cancel the wavepool event in california recently.
And they probably won't cancel the trestles event,despite the US apparently being awash in covid still.
Anything could happen though.
But the WSL are clearly running their events where there's less covid red tape lately it seems.

seaslug's picture
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seaslug Friday, 6 Aug 2021 at 4:42pm

If anyone would know, it would be Jump Jet Fanny (aka Jetson)

Blakey104's picture
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Blakey104 Saturday, 7 Aug 2021 at 2:31pm

A Vaccine gets canned after 50 deaths. This shit people are getting jabbed with is an experimental drug not a Vaccine. Nearing 15,000 ( reported deaths ) deaths and people are still getting it.
All this Variant rubbish is to keep you in a constant state of fear, I can’t believe people are still buying this shit.
Open your eyes turn off MSN build your immune system FFS.
1800 people died in Perth of the Flu the year before this shit started no lock downs, no masks, no poison.
The flu has been rebranded wake up.
I hope it pumps in Mexico ;-))

groundswell's picture
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groundswell Sunday, 8 Aug 2021 at 12:11am

Are you the same Blakey that scabbed a couple of pingers off me in oxford street (and surfs wedding cake island) then swallowed both STRONG pingers in one gulp..when they took effect and a girl was kissing me, you started kissing her cheeks at the same time as me?

Nick Bone's picture
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Nick Bone Sunday, 8 Aug 2021 at 12:01pm

Hahaha

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 9:33pm

Hey you and me could be friends on here lol.
By this point in time more people come around to our way of thinking but no one from our point of view ever jumps to the other side i've noticed.
One day a lot more people will be calling BS on this thing if it's still going.
And seeing as the government has taken our freedom to travel overseas away and won't be giving it back for quite a while yet,i think we have the luxury of time to wait and see what pans out the rest of this year and well into next.
There's some more big spanners to be thrown in the works yet that the media seems to be grooming us all to expect and accept when they happen,and many might be thankful they waited instead of diving into the pool without checking how deep the water was first.

udo's picture
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udo Saturday, 7 Aug 2021 at 2:51pm

Where are you getting the Perth Flu death figures from ?
80 is the correct amount.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Saturday, 7 Aug 2021 at 7:41pm

Makes it hard to take anything these clowns say seriously when they talk absolute shit doesn’t it?

seaslug's picture
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seaslug Saturday, 7 Aug 2021 at 3:51pm

Never let the truth get in the way of a good story Udo

Remigogo's picture
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Remigogo Sunday, 8 Aug 2021 at 3:29am

Yawn...
It's not a virus it's a disease.
And what has a storm on the east coast of New Zealand got to do with the swell in Mexico.
Clowns.

groundswell's picture
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groundswell Sunday, 8 Aug 2021 at 4:04am

Most of the time lows move east Remigogo when it reaches near the south american coast they will get that swell from that low.

Remigogo's picture
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Remigogo Sunday, 8 Aug 2021 at 4:37am

Thanks groundswell.

Poor comment on my behalf. As though I am suggesting Craig is a clown, which is not my intent. My apologies Craig.

Craig's picture
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Craig Sunday, 8 Aug 2021 at 8:00am

Ha, gotchya, and not the best swell source but it's all they have to rely on after the first pulse of S swell from south-west of Chile.

Jamyardy's picture
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Jamyardy Sunday, 8 Aug 2021 at 1:54pm

That's better Craig, twice you wrote "Firstly, we’re expected to see a relatively weak polar storm forming east-southeast of Chile", thought the swell was rearing around the horn for a minute.

Craig's picture
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Craig Sunday, 8 Aug 2021 at 5:08pm

Ha, sorry about that.

groundswell's picture
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groundswell Sunday, 8 Aug 2021 at 5:35am

Even if the low moves slowly a strong south west swell could reach mexico from near its current position, just needs a super strong fetch and with width

Cacadajy's picture
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Cacadajy Sunday, 8 Aug 2021 at 1:42pm

Oh my goodness.
Read this article on a lazy Sunday to get an idea of whether I should factor in some late nights.
Read through the comments and got shouted at by some delusional nutcases. I feel dirty.
An article with intricate details on a simple and innocent subject being corrupted by people who feel they need to shout their beliefs upon others is just sad.

Craig's picture
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Craig Sunday, 8 Aug 2021 at 3:48pm

And that swell for Teahupoo..

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Sunday, 8 Aug 2021 at 7:49pm

Geez. How's the firehose spit!!!

Remigogo's picture
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Remigogo Sunday, 8 Aug 2021 at 9:03pm

Howzat!!!

dawnperiscope's picture
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dawnperiscope Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 12:46pm

is this the entree before the main later in the week?

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 12:51pm

Yep, though next swell a bit more south, bigger though.

dawnperiscope's picture
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dawnperiscope Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 1:44pm

Wonder if they're trying to find a way to extend the window.

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 1:47pm

No need, it'll just get there in time for the final day or so.

Remigogo's picture
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Remigogo Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 9:35pm

Well... from what I have seen of the first day, your insight here may just keep Corona's 'happy' froth on top.

If things are up and up from here, without too many lulls, we see some pretty good action I suspect.

stunet's picture
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stunet Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 9:55am
Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 10:15am

Is it just me or does the surf look light onshore and wonky in that “paradise pumping” photo?

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 10:21am

Yep, far from pumping. I'd rename, fun runners..

stunet's picture
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stunet Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 9:57am

^^ Doesn't look big. The swell for the first few days is already in the water, just have to wait and see what part travel decay and direction play.

First five or six days has good wind at least. Generally northerly, with maybe a few spells of NW, which looks a little devilish.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Monday, 9 Aug 2021 at 10:23am

looks fun as hell to me.
I love wonky runners with sections.

N.P's picture
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N.P Tuesday, 10 Aug 2021 at 7:19pm

Crazy how an article regarding swell prospects for a surf contest turns into covid chat… gotta love that internet

bbbird's picture
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bbbird Tuesday, 10 Aug 2021 at 8:30pm

South Pacific low / SW swell lining up for Tues 17th?
https://metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain&region=spacific&noofd...
to zoom in ( hold ctrl button & tap + button)

koromaki's picture
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koromaki Tuesday, 10 Aug 2021 at 9:35pm

Here's a question:

Are the 'vaccines' effective?

If yes, 'vaccine passports' are pointless.

If no, 'vaccine passports' are pointless.

But really, they're absolutely not pointless, because all this BS we're living through isn't about about an alleged virus or Santa Claus or The Easter Bunny or The Tooth Fairy - it's about lockdowns, The Climate (Control) Agenda and The Great Reset.

Welcome to the post-modern GloboMonopoly, where a small number of cunts own and control everything.

Anyone out there ever played Monopoly or poker?

Remember how every single game ends the same way?

savanova's picture
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savanova Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 10:11am

It seems a career in science gets trumped by a Google search while having a shit.

Cacadajy's picture
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Cacadajy Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 11:33am

Bwahahaha.

You sir win "the I just made people spit coffee across their desks" award for today. Congratulations.

Sprout's picture
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Sprout Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 11:24am

Can mods delete all the OT Covid posts, or move them to that thread?

Bnkref's picture
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Bnkref Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 3:11pm

How's the forey looking? Looked pretty fun out there in the snippets I caught this morning.

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 3:11pm

Update tomorrow but good.

Bnkref's picture
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Bnkref Wednesday, 11 Aug 2021 at 3:27pm

Thanks Craig.

Handy having the comp on early mornings.