Forecast: Maui Pro

Stu Nettle
Swellnet Analysis

After a twelve-month hiatus, the Women’s Championship Tour kicks off where we last saw them - Honolua Bay, Maui. However, instead of being the season-closer - as it has been since it was introduced in 2014 - the Maui Pro is now the first stop on the 2020/21 Women’s CT.

The first swell of interest will be the largest swell of the Hawaiian season thus far, though it’ll hit two days prior to the start of the waiting period so we’ll only see this one on social media. At any rate it’s worth mentioning as it’ll provide very big waves at Honolua Bay under light easterly winds.

Steph Gilmore wonderfully barrelled at Honolua in 2019 (Ed Sloane/WSL)

The storm that creates the swell forms just offshore from the Kamchatka Peninsula and deepens right in Hawaii's Goldilock's zone - midway between Kamchatka and the Aleutian Islands - moving unobstructed towards mainland America while creating a significant NW swell for Hawaii that’ll hit on the morning of December 2nd.

It goes without saying that locals will appreciate the timing.

By Thursday 3rd, size will be down to 10ft, and then further to 4-6ft by Friday the 4th, and with waves to double-overhead and a tradewind pattern it’s very likely the first day of the waiting period will also be the first day of competition.

Smaller and much weaker low pressure systems travelling in the wake of the main storm will maintain smaller waves over the next three days in the 4ft+ range. This will largely be accompanied with good wind so organisers will likely make hay through Friday, Saturday, and possibly even Sunday.

However, there’s the outside risk of a devil wind blowing up the face late Saturday and early Sunday as an approaching low turns winds towards the south. This will be the portent of the next round of swell.

Unlike the first swell mentioned, that forms just below the Bering Sea, the storm creating this swell will travel at the same latitude as the Japanese islands, hence closer to the Hawaiian Islands.

It's enough at this point to simply flag the swell as it's too distant to lock down specifics. We’ll keep a close eye on its development over the coming week.

Also, the Pipeline Masters - the first comp of the men's CT - begins on December 8th during an equally active swell period. We'll have a forecast for Pipe tomorrow.

Click for Swellnet's Honolua Bay forecast page

Comments

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Monday, 30 Nov 2020 at 6:19pm

I'd love to surf Honolua, such a dreamy set-up. Beautiful bay with a perfect right-hand pointbreak, if only it was in an unknown location, surrounded by cheap realestate....

muffsic's picture
muffsic's picture
muffsic commented Monday, 30 Nov 2020 at 8:19pm

It is a great wave...but seriously crowded with a tight take off area. Forget it unless you are local or on tour!

rightfootfwd's picture
rightfootfwd's picture
rightfootfwd commented Friday, 4 Dec 2020 at 7:49am

I agree that it gets seriously crowded. It's also a lot like the Snapper setup with a number of take-off zones. I've been fortunate enough to surf it a number of times now (all out of peak winter though) and have had some truly great sessions there in not uncrowded lineups. That said, I'm a goofy footer and I still love surfing there, so that says something about the place.......... on that note, it's truly trippy the first time that you go there and you're driving along the coast and glimpse it for the first time - you know it as soon as you see it! Then you turn off onto the volcanic dirt track and drive past the plantations and park on the side of the track on the bluff overlooking the break. It reminds me of surfing Lennox Head in the 80's, such an understated, humble entry point for a world renowned break...... I suppose as the Hawaiians say "keep the country, the country".

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 4 Dec 2020 at 7:55am

Beautiful, it's on my bucket list!

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig commented Tuesday, 8 Dec 2020 at 5:18pm

I surfed it once 27 years ago on my honeymoon. I knew the bride was a keeper when I was permitted to bring a surfboard with me to Hawaii. Between the big island and Maui, I assume someone took um-bridge and belted a deep fist mark into the bottom. Anyhoo....got to surf Honalua in similar conditions to today (Tuesday). 4-6 foot (Aus size) and super clean and nice. Happy it wasn't too sizey. Must be one of the most stunning, picturesque places to surf on the planet. Scored a little cover up and got hooted by a local too. Kept me stoked for a while.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Monday, 30 Nov 2020 at 9:05pm

I really don’t understand what the female pro surfers get out of this exploitation.

Who’d want to get paid to surf pumping Honolua with just a bikini clad Stef Gilmore ?

wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 7:41am

Is this that thing called sarcasm?

wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 8:17am

It’s a pretty sexist and objectifying statement when you consider the following:
1) Steph rips all over you and would destroy you in a comp, more than likely combining you the entire round after her first 2 waves.
2) Figuratively speaking Steph has bigger balls than you and the wave you see her getting shacked on in this photo would likely have you paddling in the channel scratching to get as far away from it as possible.
3) Steph has more than likely made way more money through professional surfing than you have in whatever career you have chosen. The dream of surfing professionally is something completely unattainable for you.
4) As you can see in this photo Steph pretty much always wears shorts and a rashie.
Sure there might be female surfers like Alana Blanchard who are model-surfers and have sponsors paying them to get bikini shots surfing but guess what, she also ticks all the above boxes when comparing herself to you.

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 8:36am

Fair comment, however Ive spent decades working predominantly with women. and I can assure you that they talk exactly the same amongst friends

Halibut's picture
Halibut's picture
Halibut commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 10:23am

...

in the future, everyone will be anonymous for 15 minutes

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 9:32am

W-o-d and halibut if you can’t see the light hearted intent of blowins comment that’s saying way more about you two than his comment. Fuck me dead there are some dull people around. You guys must be a huge barrel of laughs.

wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 9:40am

The same could be said for you, I was light heartedly paying the shit out of blowin by pointing out the obvious.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 1:06pm

Nothing 'light hearted' about your post. Just came across as some po-faced humourless pleb who's life mantra is probably 'Political Correctness At All Costs'

BTW, seen a few pics of Blowin surfing on this site and I'm pretty sure he'd be able to get as slotted as Stef if a wave like that presented itself to him.

What about you?

seaslug's picture
seaslug's picture
seaslug commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 1:20pm

GF, geez I recon hand on danielsan should change his moniker haha

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 8:53am

Wow - didn't you get triggered snowflake! I thought his comment was funny, and in no way putting Steph down. I heard the sense-of-humor store has a Xmas sale on, better get in before they're sold out.

seaslug's picture
seaslug's picture
seaslug commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 11:17am

Surfalot67, geez here I am worried about the CCP not shit splitters

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 9:08am

Perhaps you should consider it from a homosexual female pro surfer’s perspective ?

Anyway .....saddle up that high horse cowboy.

the-spleen_2's picture
the-spleen_2's picture
the-spleen_2 commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 9:30am

Why the mention of bikinis at all? It's not liked you'd ever reverse the gender and write about the men "surfing with boardshort-clad Julian Wilson".

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 9:39am

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 9:46am

Because I’ve been born as a heterosexual male who is intrinsically attracted to women.

Apologies that I should let slip any reference to this fact.

the-spleen_2's picture
the-spleen_2's picture
the-spleen_2 commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 9:52am

And Maui is a women's event for women surfers.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 10:02am

That’s another good reason to not mention Julian Wilson.

Wait .....are you saying that the entertainment value of the Women’s pro is meant to be for women surfers only ?

the-spleen_2's picture
the-spleen_2's picture
the-spleen_2 commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 10:12am

I did write "reverse the gender".

You've now taken three different positions to defend your comment: it was written from the POV of women surfers, it was written from the POV of lesbian women surfers, it was written from the POV of men (even though that makes no sense in the context of your comment).

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 11:10am

The comment didn’t need defending in the first place . I’m just shooting the shit whilst I wait in various car parks for shopping to be done.

wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 2:22pm

No you are right. The women’s tour is exploitation of bikini clad women like Steph. Even though I’ve never seen her wear a bikini in a comp, and even though she has had a heaps of success winning more titles than the rest of Coolangatta put together, I am sure she feels exploited.

wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 3:48pm

Sexual insecurity masked with macho homophobic bravado... so old school! haha. If the best place you can find to perve on chix is a woman's WSL comp you should get someone to teach you how to use the internet.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 3:53pm

You’re edging close to going full retard there mate . Never go full retard Danielson .

wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 11:54am

Awesome come back dude.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 12:44pm

Yes . It was . It’s funny cause it’s true.

Al this “ Sexual insecurity masked with macho homophobic bravado.“ because I used clumsy sarcasm to say that it’d be a good gig to get paid to share a pumping Honolua lineup with just the bikini clad Queen of world surfing - the beautiful and talented Stef Gilmore.

Such misogyny and disrespect !

Better avert your eyes unless you want to end up on the sex pest registry .... https://youtu.be/fhroa3Nr1kc

wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 2:17pm

Yeah more to do with your attitude and having to reitterate you are a hetrosexual man and if someone says Steph should be respected for being Australia's most accomplished surfer over being a sex object they must not be as much of a hero-man as yourself.

There are millions women on the internet who's business it is to sexulise themselves and sell that image. Girls that get Brazillian butt injections so their arse looks like Kim Karadashian's and their bikini shot can get a few more thousand IG followers. Good to look at, sure. But anything worth respecting, not really.
Steph Gilmore doesn't sell herself like that at all but you talk like she should be in that mix simply because she is female.

As said if Steph surfing is the best you have to perve on, learn how to use the internet.

My comment was more funny because it is more true. Haha.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 2:32pm

Danielson .....I think you might have issues with women.

You’ve got to drop the idea that finding a woman attractive is disrespectful. Also throw away the idea that a woman can either be talented OR attractive. The two are certainly not mutually exclusive.

In fact I don’t know what the fck you’re even on about to begin with . Steph rips , she’s a great sort , she’s respected worldwide. There’s no problem for a heterosexual male to state these facts .

Deal with it mate .

wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson commented Thursday, 3 Dec 2020 at 9:02am

Yeah, I can hardly even remember what this coversation was about in the first place so lets just recap so I can remember what my initial point was.

Swellnet posted an article on the surf forecast for the womans tour.

You made a comment that the woman's tour was exploitation of the competitors, sexual was the only context this would make sense.

Considering the level of professionalism on the womens tour and the fact that on their day surfers like Tyler Wright and Steph Gilmore could beat half the mens tour in a heat, I thought this comment was pretty undermining, ignorant and just a bullshit comment. So I took it upon myself to point out the fact, not fiction, that every competitor on the woman's CT has accomplished more in surfing than you.

You spent the next 2 days ranting and raving about your god given right to be a red blooded a he-man that likes to perve on Steph when she surfs. And admittedly I was fuelling you along cause I think you are a fuckwit.

Anyway my point was this... a few people mentioned there are some impressive photos of you surfing somewhere on this site. That's great. You could be the number 1 shredder at your local. But by comparison to Steph Gilmore its 7 world titles vs. nothing. So who the fuck are you to say the woman's tour is sexual exploitation?

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Thursday, 3 Dec 2020 at 10:00am

Let it go FFS pal.

You're just digging yourself a deeper hole.

Maybe comment about the actual contest which is the thread title.

seaslug's picture
seaslug's picture
seaslug commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 11:19am

Blowin, with "Rawhide" playing in the background

Distracted's picture
Distracted's picture
Distracted commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 7:58am

Did all the Aussie ladies tour contingent escape lockdown and make it to Maui? Will be a long season if they can’t come back to Oz between contests.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 4:09pm

Looking forward to seeing the girls getting amongst it again. That wave is the perfect canvas for them. Gonna be interesting to see who's benefited the most from a year outta comps.

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 5:34pm

Meanwhile it's all business in the mens forecast thread.

jfs's picture
jfs's picture
jfs commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 6:04pm

Can't wait to see the girls rip at Honolua Bay and surf vicariously through them.
Having surfed there, agree with the comments regarding crowds. And when the swell increases above 8 foot the crowd increases. Got caught inside in front of cave - snapped leggy and snapped board. Hopefully swell will get in to the cave section. Last year they surfed the point which is relatively tame.

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 6:41pm

i cant wait to see the girls take on sunset........and see where the level really sits

simba

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 8:00pm

Steph will be interesting out there. Her lines and style would surely be a treat out there....be interesting to see how that translates if it's big sunset.

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 12:39pm

It'll be interesting to see what kind of Sunset they send them out in... Big unruly west bowl? Smaller, perfect point?

But yeah, it'll be cool to see what Steph can do if they get a chance at some bigger stuff. Carissa would be my pick though.

He who hesitates is lost

Michael Bourne's picture
Michael Bourne's picture
Michael Bourne commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 12:15pm

'BTW, seen a few pics of Blowin surfing on this site and I'm pretty sure he'd be able to get as slotted as Stef if a wave like that presented itself to him.'

Swillnuts ho!!! And don't forget when blowblow leapt orf the cliff, went way inside, even inside goofer (little storm/big blow), and stitched up Loz Towner at blowblow's fave secret spot too!!!! Well... sort of... again... maybe he just swillnutted him but... again...

https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-dispatch/2019/11/12/watch-laurie-...

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher commented Thursday, 3 Dec 2020 at 3:12am

tbb must agree with blowin!
So what if Steph's wardrobe is out of season!
Should we make a song & dance about it...Steph wears that colour better than any.
There's no need for a wardrobe change when a change of season will do just fine.

Bravo tbb! Now the crew think yer even more mental....not this time! Say no more!

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly commented Thursday, 3 Dec 2020 at 8:17am

Can't agree tbb. It was post #3 in a thread that was meant to be about the forecast, who is going to turn up, and who is going to win. Now it is a shit show and I'm not surprised given the post.

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher commented Thursday, 3 Dec 2020 at 3:16pm

Ok! So tbb made things worse...did warn the crew about that, but tbb's aim is true!
Hang Loose is the whole point...we all look but fail to see a bigger fashion faux pas.
Less (Nothing) to do with Post #3 & more about the colour choice for the season.

tbb is very much playing it down. However it is extremely relevant to this Comp.
WSL Gurlz would be the 1st to notice & giggle, hence tbb is being coy about it!
Wahines might rightly be upset...we can apologize but as blowin said, there is no need.
This is why tbb agrees with blowin...just hang loose Hawaiian Style.
Common typo...all swellnet crew respect World Champ wahine & sisters.

If any are still puzzled, here's Steph's '2019' WSL Maui Wardrobe "Colour Changes"
WSL forbids Pro Wahines to clash by wearing the same colour rashies...All Judges agree!
As crew recall, Wahine Carissa wore yellow. Steph wore every colour but yellow but won.
If tbb must spell it out...the above photo is not from last years 2019 Comp but from 2018.
https://www.worldsurfleague.com/athletes/389/stephanie-gilmore/eventresu...

If Steph wore yellow rashie & won 2019 Maui then she'd equal Layne's 8 World Titles.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/swoop/layne-beachley-masters-sur...
No gentleman would be conveying that news to the reigning WSL Champ.
7 April 2019 Goldie Pro Steph wore out the yellow Fashion trend.
https://www.facebook.com/WSL/videos/stephanie-gilmore-gives-up-the-jeep-...

Current World champ is not competing in 2020 WSL season.
https://www.theinertia.com/surf/carissa-moore-announces-break-from-2020-...
No show Carissa won 1st & only 2020 WSL CS Sydney Pro (48 surfers / 9 from Hawaii)
https://www.worldsurfleague.com/events/2020/wqs/3474/
Lay Year Champ may also crash the 2020 WSL CT Hawaiian Comp. (No draw yet!)
https://www.worldsurfleague.com/events/2021/wct/3615/maui-pro-presented-...

2020 swellnet Equality Timeline has been updated ahead of comp...(Gritty reading!)
re: Hawaiian Women's Surf Comps have been locked out of North Shore for 10 years now!
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-dispatch/2018/09/06/wsl-announces...

offshoreozzie's picture
offshoreozzie's picture
offshoreozzie commented Thursday, 3 Dec 2020 at 10:39am

I'm lost in the bickering. So Stephanie Gilmore is a homosexual? (asking for a friend)

the-spleen_2's picture
the-spleen_2's picture
the-spleen_2 commented Thursday, 3 Dec 2020 at 11:01am

Not necessarily but anyone who surfs against her is (according to Blowin)

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 3 Dec 2020 at 6:11pm

Cooking!

JamesFerguson's picture
JamesFerguson's picture
JamesFerguson commented Friday, 4 Dec 2020 at 2:57pm

Woozle site says the broadcast is on Foxtel but I can’t see it listed in the guide. Does anyone know what time it starts and on what channel?

JamesFerguson's picture
JamesFerguson's picture
JamesFerguson commented Friday, 4 Dec 2020 at 5:58pm

Found the answer to my question. It’s on 505 and starts at 6:00am AEST.

Kellya's picture
Kellya's picture
Kellya commented Friday, 4 Dec 2020 at 6:02pm

Sweet! Still be a bit of size left?