QS update after Haleiwa

Stu Nettle
Form Guide

There's been the expected shake up of the QS Top 10 following Haleiwa, and there's also been a change in the expected cut-off mark to qualify for next year's Championship Tour.

Going into Haleiwa, tour statistician Al Hunt thought 18,500 points would be enough, however he's just revised that upward. "I think it could go as high as 20,000 now," says Al.

Here's the Top 10 after Haleiwa. Note Deivid Silva is a double qualifier, though at 21st on the CT he's only just scraping in.

Using Al's 20,000 cut-off mark, the first person below it is Connor O'Leary at 7th on 19,650. O'Leary is hampered by carrying a high low score of 2,650. Of all the current Top 10, he has to make the most ground at Sunset to throw away his lowest score and increase his total.

A 16th place (2,675) or higher will do that for him, which means he has to make the Quarters to improve his lot. 14th place (3,275) will get him over the 20,000 mark.

Jack Freestone is the next Australian down the list. He's sitting at 13th on 16,800 on the QS, though he's also at 18th on the CT.  A good result at Pipe will secure his 2020 CT spot, or a 9th (3,800) at Sunset will put him bang on 20,000 points. Either way he needs a performance.

Sitting behind Jack is Matt Banting who was punished with an early exit at Haleiwa, dropping three places to 14th. Like O'Leary, Banting is weighed down by a high low score - 2,200 points in his case. He needs to come 20th at Sunset - that is, make Round 4 - just to improve his points standing. A Semi-final finish will, at best, put him on 19,000 points, while a Final finish will, at best, see him accrue 20,850 points.

No two ways about it, Banting needs a massive finish at Sunset.

Morgan Cibilic is the next Aussie down at 16th, sitting on 15,500 points. Though two places lower than Banting, Cibilic's worst score is only 1,000, meaning he'll start improving on his total with anything higher than a 49th place at Sunset. However, to bust the 20,000 barrier he needs to make the Final. He's been a dark horse all year, and he's carried form into Hawaii. A Final at Sunset may be beyond him, however, don't be surprised if he's in the mix once the double-qualifiers are sorted from the chaff and the real cut-off becomes known.

Beyond Cibilic is Ethan Ewing who jumped 24 places following his 4th place at Haleiwa. Ewing only has 840 as his lowest score, however nothing short of a Final finish will make up the shortfall for him. A fourth place finish will also put him bang on 20,000 points.

Worth noting here the points difference between 4th and 5th is 1,000 (6,300 to 5,300), meaning even a Semi finish for Ewing may not be enough.

Back in equal 18th is Liam O'Brien, followed by Stuart Kennedy, Wade Carmichael (who'll qualify on the CT irrespective of his Pipe result), and then Jack Robinson back at 22. All of them are mathematical chances, however even with a second place Jack will fall short of the 20,000 mark (19,930), while O'Brien will land plum on 20,000 with a third place finish, and Kennedy will need a second to crack the line.

Each of them will need a fairytale finish to jump up to the CT for 2020.

Comments

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 11:26am

Man, I've got my fingers crossed for Ethan Ewing. So classy.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 11:34am

Me too, great surfer and his one year on the CT unfortunately really didn't reflect his ability.

Watashi wa metabo oyagi desu.

surfstarved's picture
surfstarved's picture
surfstarved commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 11:45am

Ethan's year on the CT was marked by a series of really close Round 2 or 3 match-ups with either John-John or Medina - i.e. he got shafted. He's such a good surfer and so much more enjoyable to watch than the parade of cookie-cutter Brazilians lining the current QS top 10.

Silva (yawn), Dora (yawn), Ribeiro (yawn)... Bring on the claim-fest.

Don't let the bastards grind you down

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 11:49am

No need to make it a bash-the-Brazzo party. There are plenty of boring non-Brazilian surfers on tour.

scottishsponger's picture
scottishsponger's picture
scottishsponger commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 12:59pm

I’m sick of this anti-claim nonsense. It’s a celebration FFS and makes the whole spectacle more exciting. How boring do you people want to make surfing if you can’t show your stoke after a good wave? Do you want it to be dull as dishwater like the PGA?

Lord Humongous's picture
Lord Humongous's picture
Lord Humongous commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 3:21pm

I guess the claiming point is when a surfer claims the crap out of a 4.5 point scoring wave when they need a 6.5 point score just to try and get the judges to juice the score a bit. Aka Round 4, Heat 3 Ian Gouveia's non buzzer beater 4.17 that he claimed the shit out of.

scottishsponger's picture
scottishsponger's picture
scottishsponger commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 3:25pm

I take your point, but that’s a judging issue. The judges should be way more professional than that and really shouldn’t even be looking at the surfer after the ride had finished. It’s like saying Jordie’s Bell-ringing celebration was a claim that influenced the judges into giving him the score he needed. If that’s the case then the whole judging team needs to be thrown out and replaced by professionals who aren’t so easily manipulated.

ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 5:04pm

no but jordy's bell ring was a grade-A wank. i want to watch surfing, not claiming. all claims should be penalised

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 5:15pm

Do you watch cricket? Arguably THE gentleman sport (possibly apart from the Aussies - sorry), yet even they get excited and celebrate after taking a wicket.

(Agree about Jordy's Bells claim. Pathetic)

scottishsponger's picture
scottishsponger's picture
scottishsponger commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 5:18pm

Exactly! I expect Professional sports people to show emotion. It becomes very dull when they’re expected to behave like robots, a la JJF. Give me a Brazilian with passion and flair over a bland, clinical robot any day. It’s entertainment FFS!

surfstarved's picture
surfstarved's picture
surfstarved commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 12:06pm

Fair call IB - I'm just not looking forward to another year of double-pump bottom turns and formulaic air reverses, whether by Brazilians or people of any other nationality.

Don't let the bastards grind you down

Mishad's picture
Mishad's picture
Mishad commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 5:19pm

They should penalise anything more than a single pump bottom turn. Just looks shit, and it reflects the surfers poor timing. Unable to match their tempo with that of the wave.

jamespeach's picture
jamespeach's picture
jamespeach commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 12:15pm

Jack Robinson. Do it

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 1:04pm

Qs top 50
Aust 13
Brazil 11
France 8
USA 6
Hawaii 3
ZAF 3
Japan 2
IT 1
Port 1
Costa Rica 1
Peru 1
.
It's raining meat pies and baguettes also !
Is the Australian cyclone coming again ?
North Atlantic storm ahead ?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 1:41pm

hhhmmm.....someone has to say it and it might as well be me.

Very boring list. CT re-cyclers and no namer's.

not a single big new name in there that I would want to set my alarm for and get up and watch at 2am.

maybe Baron Mamiya has the most X factor.

I watched every heat of Ewing's CT year. it was pretty disappointing. I do not see the hype being justified.
He shredded this comp though.

has a lot of work to do to stay on the CT though if he makes it again.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 2:12pm

Agree with you re that list. Been trying to see the B Mamiya magic, but not sure it's there.

Ewing, though, seems to me to have gained a lot of power, even better technique, and a bit of swagger.

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 2:22pm

Shame he didn't do better in the final. If he didn't slip on that turn he would've had a good crack at 2nd and some handy extra points.

Ride on

vicco11's picture
vicco11's picture
vicco11 commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 5:32pm

Matthew McGillivray is one I'm really looking forward to seeing on tour next year.

https://stabmag.com/stabcinema/subdue-your-surf-rage-by-watching-south-a...

https://www.instagram.com/p/BrMGLqsFnhg/?igshid=1n29isxyoyb0r

That carve he did at sunset last year was John John at Margeret River esque. Would love to see Liam O'Brien make it on tour too.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 2:13pm

No doubt EE is smooth but he always looks like he's surfing a back up wave.

EDIT: Except for that big fuck off carve in Rd 1 of Haleiwa. Need more of that.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 2:18pm

thats exactly right Stu.

every single heat I watched they compared Ewing to Andy Irons.

that comparison is objectionable.

he ain; t got much game in heavy barrelling lefts either, far as I can see.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 3:06pm

He does some fine surfing in the recent snake tales clips.

His surfing certainly doesn’t have the violent aggression, the punk sneer and the chainsaw savagery of AI , but he can drive that rail through an arc of rare beauty.

I’m a huge fan.

Crisp !

Agree with the lack of sizzle in the QS top 10.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 3:07pm

If you want as surfers to have x factor,
Then you have to overhaul the tour.
@Freeride76 your complaint of the qs top ten simply mirror my view of the current ct minus about 6 to 8 surfers.
Further more qs need ct quality waves to match the ct events.

Otherwise it is like sending the go cart champs to the F1 without any training or conditioning.

Just remember also about ct failures, on his first year AI fell off tour, then came back to win three consecutive world titles.

At least the re qualifiers have experience in ct waves.....

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 3:09pm

I can't see myself getting excited watching Fred Morais go around again.

no offence, he's a million times the surfer I'll ever be, but he's meat and potatoes all the way down.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 3:12pm

Worth it to hear him say in his proper Portuguese accent that he's getting coached by Dog.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 3:14pm

My shoulders literally slumped when I tuned back in and saw him being congratulated at Haleiwa.

Sometimes I dig watching him surf , but I never find myself anticipating his heats with anything beyond neutrality.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 3:13pm

who was the last Aussie to qualify as a genuine contender or real X factor talent?

Julian Wilson in 2010?

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 3:19pm

Last Aussie that I really wanted to see on the CT was Mitch Coleborne.

He fucking rips.

Come on Coleborne !

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 3:35pm

He got caught with his pants down.
Too many chances, too many misses...

radiationrules's picture
radiationrules's picture
radiationrules commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 3:16pm

Baron Mamiya > his heat with Wade Carmicheal, Billy Kemper and Michel Borez was very special; he came from behind and eclipsed these 3, who are obvioulsy all well known power surfers, who surfed really well in that heat too. I was excited for him, Hawaii and the future of pro-surfing after that heat, well worth a watch in real time. I hope he wins the Triple Crown and planets align for the Eddie too. (as long as Jack Robinson gets on CT - go our aussie green and gold! chortle)

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 3:39pm

Baron needs to jump on a plane after sunset , if he qualifies and go straight to snapper, hang between there and bells and west oz then head to gland early,
The kid already knows how to surf the pipeline.
That's what the rookies need to do. Will they actually do it though ???

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 3:21pm

FFS .... until today
Jadson was winning the qs
The judges need there heads read
If they think I want to watch that guy spin to win again.....
Ill talk fred any day over Jadson.....

jasper99's picture
jasper99's picture
jasper99 commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 3:24pm

Ewing by far the best at the Hawaiian pro in my humble opinion. Oh and Wade was pretty special too. Shame about finals day surf inconsistency......

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 3:30pm

Contests aside, Australia has produced the most exciting Free surfers over the last 8 or so years.

Most young rippers just don't seem to give a fook now days
Imagine in no particular order
Shaun manners, jack Rob, Noa Dean, Mitch Parko, Chippa, Russ Bierke, jay Davies..
In ct waves, there has to be some x factor there ?

MRsinglefin's picture
MRsinglefin's picture
MRsinglefin commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 4:38pm

My money is on Morgan on his Will Webber boards from 2464 and his competitive surfing skills learnt at his now local 2291.

frog's picture
frog's picture
frog commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 6:23pm

weeeze all gettin fussy about what and who we watch and sick of "progressive" bunny hop air reverses. They can look okay in still photos but live in motion not so much in average waves. Potts and turps bone up every time though - whilst deep down in their soul ... they groan.

Frogg

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 11:49pm

In way too deep frog -
Flushing out the backdoor Pipe Master.
Promising Gary G a vip WSL booth with groans & boners..
Plenty there without the optional Bunny Hop upgrade.

Your Air-Reverse 'd wanna be pretty good frog!
Won't be pretty! Crew insist on Medivac Jet Ski support!

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 6:31pm

I thought that Ethan showed such a big difference to the average QS hopeful with his style and technique when compared with the average QS hopeful. Shame it doesn’t count for much. There are several blokes within the top 20 on the QS who have worse styles than a decent recreational surfer on most local Australian beaches.
Like to see him do well at sunset.

luke.hutch's picture
luke.hutch's picture
luke.hutch commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 8:55pm

Claims rule, good to see crew enjoying themselves! If they are just milking for points then that’s worth a good laugh.
Go Jack Robbo !!

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Monday, 25 Nov 2019 at 9:25pm

Stunet is giving master formguide a run for his money.
Swear that's every bit as good as the real thing!
No worries, your secret is safe here, if it pleases.
swellnet crew salute world's #1 Surfing Journo Stu Nettle.

jacksprat's picture
jacksprat's picture
jacksprat commented Tuesday, 26 Nov 2019 at 8:16am

I admire people like Morais and Andre. They are gritty, determined and obviously work very hard with (and I say this with all due respect) lesser genetic gifts than some others on the tour. Good luck to them.

onetimeonly

kang's picture
kang's picture
kang commented Wednesday, 27 Nov 2019 at 11:55am

O'Leary flying under the radar again. Hella of a backhand.
Pipped Morais for ROTY in 2017.
Looking the goods to qualify again sitting on 19,650.

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Wednesday, 27 Nov 2019 at 12:11pm

I think the QS rankings are a pretty good representation of the quality of waves they are run in. Predominantly small, shitty beachies for most of the 6,000 & 10,000's (Hawaii excepted). If you grow up on these waves it appears you have a distinct advantage.

I'm not cheap,
But I'm free.