QS update after Haleiwa
There's been the expected shake up of the QS Top 10 following Haleiwa, and there's also been a change in the expected cut-off mark to qualify for next year's Championship Tour.
Going into Haleiwa, tour statistician Al Hunt thought 18,500 points would be enough, however he's just revised that upward. "I think it could go as high as 20,000 now," says Al.
Here's the Top 10 after Haleiwa. Note Deivid Silva is a double qualifier, though at 21st on the CT he's only just scraping in.
Using Al's 20,000 cut-off mark, the first person below it is Connor O'Leary at 7th on 19,650. O'Leary is hampered by carrying a high low score of 2,650. Of all the current Top 10, he has to make the most ground at Sunset to throw away his lowest score and increase his total.
A 16th place (2,675) or higher will do that for him, which means he has to make the Quarters to improve his lot. 14th place (3,275) will get him over the 20,000 mark.
Jack Freestone is the next Australian down the list. He's sitting at 13th on 16,800 on the QS, though he's also at 18th on the CT. A good result at Pipe will secure his 2020 CT spot, or a 9th (3,800) at Sunset will put him bang on 20,000 points. Either way he needs a performance.
Sitting behind Jack is Matt Banting who was punished with an early exit at Haleiwa, dropping three places to 14th. Like O'Leary, Banting is weighed down by a high low score - 2,200 points in his case. He needs to come 20th at Sunset - that is, make Round 4 - just to improve his points standing. A Semi-final finish will, at best, put him on 19,000 points, while a Final finish will, at best, see him accrue 20,850 points.
No two ways about it, Banting needs a massive finish at Sunset.
Morgan Cibilic is the next Aussie down at 16th, sitting on 15,500 points. Though two places lower than Banting, Cibilic's worst score is only 1,000, meaning he'll start improving on his total with anything higher than a 49th place at Sunset. However, to bust the 20,000 barrier he needs to make the Final. He's been a dark horse all year, and he's carried form into Hawaii. A Final at Sunset may be beyond him, however, don't be surprised if he's in the mix once the double-qualifiers are sorted from the chaff and the real cut-off becomes known.
Beyond Cibilic is Ethan Ewing who jumped 24 places following his 4th place at Haleiwa. Ewing only has 840 as his lowest score, however nothing short of a Final finish will make up the shortfall for him. A fourth place finish will also put him bang on 20,000 points.
Worth noting here the points difference between 4th and 5th is 1,000 (6,300 to 5,300), meaning even a Semi finish for Ewing may not be enough.
Back in equal 18th is Liam O'Brien, followed by Stuart Kennedy, Wade Carmichael (who'll qualify on the CT irrespective of his Pipe result), and then Jack Robinson back at 22. All of them are mathematical chances, however even with a second place Jack will fall short of the 20,000 mark (19,930), while O'Brien will land plum on 20,000 with a third place finish, and Kennedy will need a second to crack the line.
Each of them will need a fairytale finish to jump up to the CT for 2020.