Submitted by Craig on Fri, 03/07/2014 - 07:49
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 7th March)
Best Days: Sunday, early Monday east of Melbourne, Thursday morning on the Surf Coast, Friday east of Melbourne
A medium sized W/SW swell filled in yesterday but conditions were average across all locations with a moderate S'ly wind. This morning an unexpected reprieve in the onshore winds (linked to a trough that's moving over us stalling just a touch further west and across the Otway Ranges) has resulted in clean fun waves breaking across the Surf Coast, while the Mornington Peninsula remained bumpy and onshore.
We should see winds swing back to the SE during the day and freshen as the trough starts moving to the east, while a slow drop in swell is also expected.
This weekend (Mar 8 -9)
There's been no change to the weekend's forecast with a long-range and inconsistent but strong SW groundswell expected to arrive through tomorrow afternoon, peak overnight and then ease slowly through Sunday.
The one improvement is the local winds on Sunday and now they look to be straighter N'ly on the Surf Coast, and even N/NW in areas creating cleaner conditions for the reef breaks.
Saturday will be a write off though with strengthening SE tending E/SE winds leaving no decent options for a wave.
Size wise, we should see inconsistent 3ft waves across the Surf Coast Sunday morning with 3-4ft sets at 13th Beach, while the Mornington Peninsula is expected to offer larger 6ft+ waves across the open beaches. The afternoon should remain relatively clean across both coasts as winds tend variable, creating a full day of fun waves!
Next week onwards (Mar 10 onwards)
Next week will start off slow with a small easing swell on the Surf Coast Monday under offshore winds expected to become tiny into Tuesday. The Mornington Peninsula should offer clean but inconsistent 3ft+ waves early under a N'ly wind, but this will swing more NW during the morning ahead of a gusty but relatively shallow S/SW change, so make the most of the dawny.
Tuesday is expected to remain small with a variable wind favouring the Mornington Peninsula during the morning for keen surfers.
We're heading into an active period of waves from the middle of next week well into the following week as a series of W/SW groundswells push through Bass Strait.
This will be related to a progression of polar fronts being steered up towards WA and then eventually through the Bight by the Long Wave Trough. The LWT is currently over WA but is expected to move slowly into the Bight and stall there for most of next week, sending front after front after front up through our western and then south-western swell window.
Moderate pulses of W/SW and then SW groundswell will result, ebbing and flowing each day, with the first considerable increase due Wednesday afternoon ahead of a secondary pulse Thursday afternoon and then another next Saturday. This trend will continue well into next week but the big question is the local winds.
Early in the period, the Surf Coast will fair best Thursday with a W'ly flow, but a weak change will see winds swinging E'ly into Friday and the more N'ly Saturday, favouring locations east of Melbourne.
Beyond this an approaching front will swing winds back to the western quadrant and the action back to the Surf Coast, but we'll review this all again on Monday.