Submitted by Craig on Mon, 11/04/2013 - 08:13
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 4th November)
Apologies for the computer model forecast downtime, we're battling some gremlins in the system but hope to have it back ASAP
This week (Nov 4-8)
The swell kicked up by Sunday's change will continue to fade through Tuesday and an improvement in conditions should be seen across the state as a light NE wind develops. The swell will still be rather lumpy and wobbly from overnight onshores but should improve mid-morning before E/SE sea breezes kick in.
Wednesday looks like the best day to go surfing as a strong but inconsistent W/SW groundswell fills in (pictured right). A peak is expected into the afternoon to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula's open beaches and conditions should remain clean all day under a fresh N'ly breeze. This will favour 13th Beach and Fairhaven on the Surf Coast over the reefs.
Keep in mind there'll be long waits between sets with this swell due to the large distance between where it was generated and our coast.
A slow drop in size is due Thursday but conditions will deteriorate as a weak trough moves in from the west, swinging winds onshore from the SW.
A moderate pulse of SW groundswell is due Friday morning, but winds will freshen from the E/SE leaving protected locations on the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island with the best surf. Size should peak at 3ft+ across the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula during the morning with a drop into the afternoon.
Longer Term (Nov 9 onwards)
Friday's SW swell will be replaced by a junky SE windswell building into the weekend as a strong high pressure ridge moves slowly across the country from the west. The ridge may be squeezed by a surface trough in the Tasman Sea, kicking up larger levels of SE swell into early next week but associated strong E/SE winds will create poor conditions.