Submitted by Craig on Mon, 04/28/2014 - 11:38
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 28th April)
Best Days: Tuesday morning east of Melbourne, Thursday, early Saturday west of Melbourne
The Surf Coast offered a small clean window of waves Saturday morning with an easing swell from Friday and fresh NW winds ahead of a SW change around 9am. The Mornington Peninsula was average with the NW tending SW wind.
A new spike in swell due Sunday came in on model forecasts, but under my expectations (adjusted for the size seen Friday across the coast from a very similar cold front). Winds were onshore in any case with an average 3-4ft of swell on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula with more workable E'ly winds.
Today the swell has dropped away to an inconsistent 2-3ft at exposed spots on the Surf Coast but with great offshore N'ly winds, while the Mornington Peninsula was in the 4ft range and clean as a whistle. The swell should continue to fade during the day as winds persist from the N'th.
This week and Saturday (Apr 28 – May 3)
Tomorrow morning will be tiny across the coast and only worth a look around the western end of the Mornington Peninsula with a strengthening N/NW wind ahead of a late W'ly change.
We may see the start of a new long-range W/SW groundswell arriving later in the day, generated by a vigorous polar low in the Southern Indian Ocean last week and over the weekend, but the peak from this swell is due Wednesday.
This swell was generated in our far swell window and hence there'll be a lot of swell decay and inconsistency, with the Surf Coast peaking in the very inconsistent 2-3ft range, with the possible bigger set at swell magnets, while the Mornington Peninsula should see 5-6ft sets.
Conditions will unfortunately be poor as a strong SW change moves through around dawn, so unless your around Torquay early for the dawny, it's not worth a drive from Melbourne.
Thursday should be better with an easing mix of swells from an inconsistent 2ft to occasionally 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula under all day NW winds.
Heading into the end of the week and weekend we'll see a lot more activity across the state as a strong polar low fires up from the south-west of WA and projects north up towards during the second half of this week.
A pre-frontal fetch of W/NW winds will generate an initial small increase in W/SW swell Friday morning before the stronger SW swell arrives into the afternoon and peaks Saturday. Size wise we're looking at 4-5ft surf west of Melbourne with 6-8ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula but winds look poor again, swinging onshore after a change during Friday and persisting from the SW Saturday. The Torquay region however should see more favourable W'ly winds during the morning.
Sunday onwards (May 4 onwards)
A drop in swell is due Sunday as winds swing back to the NW ahead of another cold front and change through the day. There's plenty more swell due through next week as the Southern Ocean remains active, but we'll review this again on Wednesday.