sean killen, 1698644785
Scored some chunky lefts this morning at my loca( 5 months) ..recent swells finally shaped some nice banks again..
conrico, 1698656814
Alway wondered, does October get same swell as March? Both 2 months from mid winter. Very autumn like S and E swell mix recently…
stunet, 1698657547
Pretty special arvo around these parts. Not huge but just friggen lovely conditions. Took a walk as the wind swung, got an elevated view, and every corner was doing it.
freeride76, 1698658215
May I suggest my seasonal reversal article for a perusal Conrico.
Craig, 1698702300
The swell is maxing at Manly, well more specifically from North Steyne to South Steyne. It's picked up from 4-5ft to 6ft and now 8ft. All the while Queensy looks a much more manageable 4ft.
If this guy drove through this barrel, it would have been the best I've seen made at Manly..
[img]https://i.imgur.com/uUfuuoI.png[/img]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/9U3KgOH.jpg[/img]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/bfMZQiR.jpg[/img]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/5anATtn.jpg[/img]
thermalben, 1698702900
Fwoar! Puerto Mantown.
Dunno why old mate is crouching.. that barrel is so big, he could be standing tall and skimming his hand along the roof!
Craig, 1698703320
Shitting himself!
Replay is down the beach on the Manly camera, 7:16:15s
Travelled a bit in it!
john_c, 1698704741
Insane at my local point on the NB this morning, 15 Sec + east swell made for some super gnarly barrels!
sean killen, 1698709506
Only 4ft this morning early it’s absolutely bombing now 6ft+ best waves in 6 years
Sanga, 1698712199
Pumping!
Rabbits68, 1698713368
Shark Island cam 11:40:30
Solid set - lid gets a bomb.
Pedro1212, 1698713587
Muscle memory kicks in for us Manly locals.
Sprout, 1698714011
Sick one!!
Mostly rubbish non-event SC, painful to watch the cams down south haha.
How's the Manly wash-through 10:59 (11:59).
stunet, 1698714950
Crazy things going on.
Rabbits68, 1698717889
Out the back! Incredible…
Craig, 1698723360
North Steyne looked like 3rd reef Pipe! Without the inside left barrels though,
Glennmc, 1698734349
Genuine question. How can the forecast section show 1-2ft then it maxes at 8ft-12ft per the the report? Always read forecaster notes anyway, but planning to have one of those “not feeling well boss” days makes it tricky, especially if some travel is required. Granted no way in hell I would have been out there today, but still curious
stunet, 1698741420
Today's pagan festival:
Craig, 1698742109
Incredible!
Sprout, 1698746591
Shots. Smokin'.
tylerdurden, 1698747849
I don’t subscribe here so therefore don’t get the detailed forecast notes. I’m guessing the answer from Swellnet will be “read the forecast notes, it’s all in there”.
Maybe it was in there Glen and you missed it?
But in terms of the predicted size from the forecast algorithm, 1.1m 12.4sec east swell as predicted on the forecast page (midday Tuesday) obviously is a massive underestimation and therefore represents a problem with the algorithm. I’ll give credit where credit is due and say the algorithm is often pretty accurate save for a few examples that I’ve noted over the years when it has been clearly waaay off the mark. Today I’d say it was more like 3m, maybe 13s and even fraction north of east given Queenscliff was smaller than the south end.
No algorithm is perfect but occasionally Swellnet’s is way off.
Best bet is to go for the often underestimated option of eyeballing the surf in person. Doesn’t work for everyone but if you’re flexible it’s the only real way.
Some of my best sessions over the last 25 years here in Manly have been when the surf has been predicted to be small and unexpectedly is bigger and better, the crowd relying on the forecast stay away.
Having said that, although I worked this morning I probably would’nt have gone out today, maybe right at the Queenscliff end perhaps
jasonacollins, 1698748417
I was going to ask the same question! It seems a common theme recently - the forecast section showing much less swell than is stated in the forecast notes (and the forecast notes being much more accurate). e.g. Wollongong has 1-2ft for today, with 2ft for North facing, increasing to 3ft for South facing by the end of the day.
dannyz, 1698748462
this one really snuck under everyone’s radars.. didn’t see anyone or any robot predicting 8-10ft bombs everywhere!
Craig, 1698779580
Yeah the models totally missed this swell, both size and period. All did though, not just Swellnet. And the BOM also missed it as well, they had 1-1.5m. They also issue Dangerous Surf Warnings at the drop of a hat but none yesterday.
Updated version that's running in the backend performed better but still only forecast 4-5ft for this event. Looks like ASCAT missed the peak of the low as well for verification.
Panman, 1698780207
Lucky we weren’t under one of those smokers Stu we would’ve lost more than our wetsuit
simba, 1698782573
Jeez stu you wont be popular down 'there' posting those shots
stunet, 1698782574
Ha ha...gone!
Never had that happen before.
Wong, 1698786182
It's the east coast of Australia, Stu's photos will have little affect on the place when you can assume points all over the place would of been lighting up yesterday.
john_c, 1698789467
Wind guru was calling 1.8 meter 14 second period east swell for days. That equates to solid gnarly barrels at my local - although it did come in over that . It's based off GFS data like most of these forecasts seem to be, it seems the interpretation might be out sometimes.
tylerdurden, 1698792469
Agree John. Windguru as of yesterday afternoon was reading it at 2.3m 13s while Swellnet’s was still 1.1 at 12.4.
Not sure what Windguru said on Monday though.
I generally found the old Magicseaweed to be pretty good for period and direction although bad for estimating near shore wave heights.
Craig would know better than me but it seems east swells have more punch than south swells of equivalent size and period. Maybe it’s just that east swells hit everywhere and south are obviously selective.
As a general rule, I think a 1.5-2m east swell with 12s period will be pumping, an equivalent south swell (even at south facing beaches) will be manageable. Just my anecdotal experience, no science behind my opinion
Pops, 1698793959
I've been staring at that first shot for 20 minutes now. That's the perfect wave.
Why did yesterday have to be a deadline day!
conrico, 1698806927
For sure thanks! could you add the link can't find it