thermalben, 1453950840
Well, Kelly said it a couple of hours ago: "I think everyone thought the swell was gonna arrive late but it ended up being easily big enough for #TheEddietoday. Probably too big on a few sets, actually."
And this from Connor Kollenda: "Waimea Bay a couple minutes ago. Swell is still building and the bay is closing out a lot already."
roubydouby, 1453952669
It's pretty obvious we need to sacrifice a big wave legend so we can move past 'the bay'.
I'd nominate Laird, simply because 'The Hamilton' has a rather grand air to it.
On second thoughts, the 'Eddie would go' tag line would become 'Laird would Tow', undermining the whole paddling jaws thing.
helmet-not-hose, 1453954016
Nice. I think 'the Foo' has a good ring to it.
Picture the bumper sticker "Foo would do!"
It works (almost) perfectly.
sarge4, 1453955253
There has to be more to it....
atticus, 1453955620
Stu, did you think about the link between this story and your last?
stunet, 1453956589
I assume you mean 'Quiksilver eyes private deal'? If so, yeah I did think of the link yet I'm reluctant to get into speculation about the consequences of Quik's financial woes. I'm not so concerned with the 'whys' of the Eddie no show. I'd prefer to offer unsolicited yet helpful advice.
maddogmorley, 1453960523
I reckon the Eddie has had it's day. It's been so long since it's run I don't even bother checking the updates. Looks pretty much like just a takeoff anyway - no real wall like Jaws. (unless you are Bruce Irons and like getting pounded in the shorey).
Read somewhere Albee Layer got an invite this year but wasn't sure he would 'go' as he would hate to miss a swell at Jaws.
From what I understand if the Bay is on so is Jaws....maybe Jaws doesn't handle the wind quite as well being more open ocean.
Faunt Leroy, 1453960747
I think with the forecast technology everyone has at their fingertips perhaps we all overthink it a little and rely on it to much. Most models had the swell peaking over night which probably had a big say on whether or not the event ran or not. I seem to remember in the old days, the organizers down on the beach making the the call on the day, hence having all of the alternates , if you weren't there you didnt get a guernsey .
They need to get old school, contact all the invites and tell them, "we might be on, be there or dont.."
They rely on to many online models. My advise is make the call in the morning of the swell...like the old days. It will mean more underground guys will get in the event and that to me is wayyy more exciting.
maddogmorley, 1453960990
Spot on Faunt Leroy - very easy to overthink it. Nothing like being there to see for yourself. Had a few swells recently at Yorkes that were a lot bigger than forecast - just as well I went anyway :)
barley, 1453961303
Good call leroy..and by the sounds of it quikky are fucked maybe too fucked to run it? Sounds like all the big guns would rather hit jaws!
Any one see dingos freefall today?maybe a bit of karma for all those drpins? Haha
Faunt Leroy, 1453961643
I remember the old vids when the director (George downing??) was on the beach, making the call, The organisers weren't there this am. To much reliance on tech. Go down and use your eyes.
southey, 1453963011
I think they need to have a word to BEN - thermalben in here for advice ... i didn't read any other forecasts , so i will presume they got it wrong ...... Not swellnet though ?!?
Should have run ......
thermalben commented Monday, 25 Jan 2016 at 9:35pm
Still looking massive IMO. I'm surprised they've called off the Eddie so far ahead. Could easily see it kicking in through the morning. Arvo will be huge!
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caml's picture
caml commented Monday, 25 Jan 2016 at 11:32pm
Even a nw swell is good jaws & might be better for the west bowl albee zone . And thats still not shadowed . Ben the swellmet forecast has it biggest thurs am right ? What arvo do u mean ?
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caml's picture
caml commented Monday, 25 Jan 2016 at 11:36pm
Ah rightyo latest updated cast has weds arvo the peak now not thurs morn . Still cant see what day could possibly be an eddie comp with that forecast . Ben can you shine some light on this ?
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southey's picture
southey commented Monday, 25 Jan 2016 at 11:48pm
Ben maybe alluring to the fact that this is still all in Model land .
The fact that many other systems have intensified abruptly in the region that this systen is to travel through is key . Models sometimes don't pick up obvious " rhythmic patterns " . I think personally the supporting / surrounding low pressure region will be key , whether or not it draws the low through too quickly , as it its progression east is too fast . A stall or rotation of the overall regional low is often needed to get us into that XXL territory . But we need to keep in mind that storm currents and existing seas states will help the swell build fast . Could be the last / second last chance for a few weeks .
thermalben, 1453965000
I have been speaking with a few surfers over the last few weeks (including prior to this swell) but not with anyone involved in running the event. As far as I'm aware all forecasting and associated event decisions are done in-house.
Regardless of how much l technology is used to make a decision in advance, I strongly believe that they should be making the final call on the day, especially line calls like this when it's obviously so close to ticking all of the boxes.
This means having the entire contest infrastructure - including a full TV broadcast and webcast crew - ready to go at dawn, even if the event ends up not running. The risky part of that equation is that it costs the same $$, regardless of whether the event is called on or off.
I saw that firsthand in 2011: Quiksilver freighted half a tonne of broadcast equipment from Australia to the North Shore (as the local gear was being used for another event), and employed operators who worked their arses off the day before and on the day of the swell - only for the Eddie to be called off due to a lack of consistency. That was an expensive non-event.
So I understand Quiksilver's dilemma. But I can't see how the event will ever get run in the future, now with so many other waves taking the limelight. If we see a swell next season, will the WSL's event at Peahi take priority? We can't always guarantee Eddie swells every year, let alone a couple to pick and choose from. If it was ever going to run, the El Niño-fueled run of 2015/2016 was always going to make it happen.
Faunt Leroy, 1453966951
I can see what you mean re jaws v Waimea but if the eddie ran today it would have been an incredible event. I think the eddie is more than live coverage etc, its About the day at the bay. Its about being down there and watching it live, think about it, the last time it ran was pre live events, pre live coverage, if you wanted to watch it you bought the dvd or you watched a special on tv. The Eddie is an enigma and if and when it runs it will be amazing.
Faunt Leroy, 1453967044
Edit...I also see what you mean re $$$
barley, 1453969242
Eddie was live last time it ran wasnt it?
rjl, 1453969354
You cant make the call on the day, because the stuff cant be set up in time.
George Downing used to be able to pick the swell like a nose, with no technology, is he still on the payroll?, many aren't.
There is something else going on probably to do with the chapter 11 they are under.
Its a shame it hasn't run this year, but there is more swells coming....
lostdoggy, 1453970228
Yeh barley, I remember watching at least one live.
Kelly pulling into closeout tubes on an orange 8-9 ft gun? Seemed incredible at the time but you wouldn't blink twice now, after what we've been exposed to recently.
chook, 1453970835
nobody from quicksilver or otherwise involved in the Eddie Aikau Invitational would speak to you? makes it all sounds pretty mysterious.
freeride76, 1453971665
The 2009 event was amazing, by far the best big wave contest I've ever seen apart form the latest Jaws one.
Made all the other BWWT events looks sad.
clif, 1453975230
It can run on the day.
Cue drones.
Cue GoPros.
Cue live stream to mobile phones.
Any airports nearby? ;-)
caml, 1453977206
All the opinions & information is above are well said & valid , and as Fauntleroy was there saying it would have been good I feel a possible reason is being kept quiet most likely quicksilver financial status but I believe george downing may just be awaiting the perfect conditions & that is not a big period swell which these last two were . Vaguely remember that the bays best on a 15-16 sec swell , of course thats a major difference .is this a possibility ?
caml, 1453977277
When greg long won it was broadcast
lostdoggy, 1453978644
Less close outs at 15-16 is there?
caml, 1453986518
Some waves are best at a certain period ldogy , tomorrow lets search spot check Waimea on surfline . Waimea might have much better shape at that period
southey, 1453986635
I would say it would have less water movement at that period .
Faunt Leroy, 1454001787
Sorry, was broadcast live, seems so long ago I just figured it wasnt..ha.
Gary G, 1454021273
I reckon they should replace the Eddie with the Gary.
"When the swell lifts, so will the Gary - The Gary is always lifting, lurking, waiting."
You could also make it a 2 part event. People can be scored for how ripped they look standing in front of those big guns at the opening ceremony, and then you'll always have a winner even if the swell doesn't show up.
The Gary is all about Guns, big guns, and faceys.
thermalben, 1454023560
[quote=rjl]You cant make the call on the day, because the stuff cant be set up in time..[/quote]Yes you can (as I mentioned above). But that's the risky part of the equation: it has to be set up - at considerable expense - in the knowledge that the event could be called off. Doesn't become cheaper if the event doesn't run, because the broadcast gear and staff still have to get paid.
[quote=rjl]George Downing used to be able to pick the swell like a nose, with no technology, is he still on the payroll?[/quote]My understanding is that George's son Keone Downing (who won the 1990 Eddie) is assisting with things, not sure about George though.
[quote=rjl]Its a shame it hasn't run this year, but there is more swells coming....[/quote]Fingers crossed, eh?
thermalben, 1454023800
Interesting - Quiksilver did actually upload something to the event page yesterday, though I'm not sure what time. It's not a blog post, and it's not dated or time stamped, and it's also just a simple line of text that rotates amongst three other article promos on the Eddie homepage, but it says this:
The text was a simple link to Surfline's Waimea surfcam and North Shore surf report, and scored 3,500 click throughs yesterday (an interesting result, considering Quiksilver haven't really pushed the Eddie webpage at all - people would have had to sniff it out on their own).
caml, 1454028944
[quote=southey]I would say it would have less water movement at that period .[/quote]
Stating the obvious there southey . its all about the bathymetry , waimea is a bit of a slab rather than a huge vast reef area . It will need more swell height but less period to equate to 20 ft plus & thats why the eddie swells must form over the certain ( dateline ) area , close range .
Coops70, 1454028959
To me it seems quick ain't going run it for what ever reasons probably financial otherwise there would have at least been some standby alert for invitees. If every man and his dog can see a swell coming now days thanks to you guys and other sites then surely they can. The whole things weird imo and no comment from the site? Something fishy going on!
caml, 1454031769
Google search the mechanics of waimea bay ; this might explain the whole mystery & misunderstanding of why the Eddie hasn't run . Key points ; swell period , direction of swell , close proximity of storm , basically none of the requirements were reached during the last few big swells . I would bet on it that this is why it hasnt run . Best swell periods for waimea are 14-17 specifically 16 , & 15 . Direction 295-305 , storm proximity 1500 miles .
Craig, 1454034434
Cam, the huge swell 1.5 weeks ago was really really close, and this one was as well. Within 1500 miles.
caml, 1454035299
But the period was way over the prime , being over 20 secs right ? If u read this surline article can u then say that the recent swells had the necessary swell signature craig ?
Craig, 1454035740
Yeah I'm aware of that article, but that's the apparent perfect combination, and how many perfect swells do we get that are what we want, hardly ever.
Also you won't get many 20ft+ swells in the 14-16s range due to the scope and wind speeds within the storm needed to make a swell that big, naturally generating larger periods.
Yesterday and the swell before were goers for me.
thermalben, 1454035740
As far as I know, the only publicly stated requirement was that the surf had to be "over 20ft".. nothing about any other swell parameters (direction, period, source).
Obviously, the consistency of the swell should be considered. When I was there in 2011, it was (just) big enough, but from sun-up, the genuine 25ft sets were about 40 mins apart, so they called it off around 8am due to inconsistency - because there would have been only one decent set per heat. Kinda makes sense (though as soon as they called it off, the consistency ramped up.. but, that's the way these things go).
So if there is more criteria that needs to be met for the Eddie to run, fair enough. But it's not a particularly good PR strategy to keep the general public guessing. A little communication goes a long way.
caml, 1454036981
Yes points taken & maybe I would lose the bet . But obviously this event doesnt run unless the conditions are right and as we all know it goes years without running , Thats because its a fickle break . So back to the other reasons why it wasnt GO ...
U maybe right about the duke & the eddie stu , think I understand a bit more now
memlasurf, 1454037982
Stu I will indulge in speculation. I reckon the Private Capital dudes have pulled the plug after reading all that has gone down with the US company recently. Those guys wouldn't give a stuff about the contest and pouring lots of dollars down the dunny for zero return. Maybe saving for their amalgamation with bongalong. I never realised Europe and OZ are separate entities in the Quicksilver sphere of things until I read the article yesterday on swellnet. USA can go down the gurgler and the other two are unaffected.
chickenlips, 1454050112
What makes Eddie! The Duke or Kelly even wanna go out there? Something different pumps through their veins! Fuck the tennis! That's gotta be the best show on Earth!
caml, 1454053118
Heard from a mate in oahu & he said that the bay was the biggest and best in years . So that pretty much explains that quiks got issues . Nothing wrong with the waves , I stand corrected
caml, 1454053189
Both recentl swells he said
Tobiasl, 1454054404
I haven't read the posts (cos there's too many) but the Eddie's no show & no updates on the webpage has nothing to do with criteria & everything to do with $, Quiksilver as has been widely reported is trying to broker a deal to stay alive, they simply don't have the money to run this contest, I heard somewhere that it costs a million dollars to run a webcast, a million they don't have.
As far as the comments that it's because the Bay has lost it's relevance because of Jaws, Nazare etc doesn't float, there isn't a big wave surfer alive who wouldn't want an Eddie title, the bay is still an amazing wave.
udo, 1454059583
Brutality at Waimea-Wed January 27th : Vimeo
Craig, 1454062802
That's great to hear, my personal opinion and forecasts which you can read back over, the first was def an Eddie swell, and this second one as well, although timing wasn't as ideal (for their 8 hour requirement) but still more than enough size.
thermalben, 1454099904
Quik have responded on their Instagram page:
"Let’s set the story straight, the team here at Quiksilver want The Eddie to run more than anyone. However we also want it to be a fair event contested in conditions Eddie Aikau himself would have approved of.
For this prestigious event to get the green light the event criteria must be met. The waves MUST be in 20 foot plus range for an entire contestable 8-hour period. That means from 8am to 4pm Waimea Bay must be bigger than 20 foot.
The judging format for The Eddie is different to every other event in the world. The surfers waves in the first heat are judged against surfers waves in the last heat. Therefore if we ran the event yesterday, where the waves didn’t peak until the afternoon, the first three heats would have been surfed in smaller, lesser, unfair conditions.
The event window remains open until February 29th and another storm is forming for next week. Although it’s a long way out, we have everything crossed that it will produce the waves we need to run this amazing spectacle of a surfing event.
Any questions, hit us in the comments and we will do our best to make sure they are answered."
caml, 1454109953
Aha it goes back to the conditions not being right , debatable. but valid point taken
caml, 1454111814
The eddie has only been run 8 times in 31 yrs . This means that they do wait for the right conditions quite scrupulously
thermalben, 1454112706
However, they made the official call three days before the swell arrived (Mon Aust, Sun local).
How confident could they possibly be three days out that it was going to be the right size for only five or six of the required eight hours?
In my mind, that's a decision that could have only been made on the day. The evening before at the earliest, perhaps once they'd confirmed (or not been able to confirm) the new swell via the 51101 buoy (which provides 8-10hrs notice for the North Shore).
And, none of this information was advertised publicly either.
maddogmorley, 1454112966
Also read on another site this morning that 15-16 sec period is optimal for the bay compared to what they've had the last 2 swells which was around 20 sec.
caml, 1454113357
Well they got it correct tho because the swell was small until 10.30/11am . Ben I think your right to be sus of their call but I still think that the guys who call the comp surf conditions are onto it . From what I have learned about George downing he has it sussed . But we will find out because if they do get the specific conditions that are undoubtedly correct and they don't run it well thats proof . But so far I can understand why theyre saying it wasn't correct conditions . All the photos of waimea are just quite horrific waves nothing like good bay . The rip was churning heavily , lots of chop on the face
shoredump, 1454114411
When are there swells that don't have a peak? They just don't want us to know the real reason behind the decision which was an economical one.
thermalben, 1454115144
I'm fine with the decision not to run the event. I am just questioning:
1) that the decision was made three days in advance, rather than on the day, and
2) Quiksilver's lack of public discussion (on their own event webpage) about all of the North Shore's big swells this season. Specifically the last two swells, which reached Eddie thresholds; that of which the general public thought was required to press the green light.
Even smaller swells (ie 15ft) are worth chatting about (too small, wrong direction, wrong period, difficult winds etc), because the majority of Quik's audience are not surfers, and to whom any swell event on the North Shore is classified as 'big surf'. And by having this regular dialogue, Quiksilver only benefits in the process - it's cheap PR for the event and keeps the Eddie story up in lights.
Tobiasl, 1454116685
I still reckon its about $
caml, 1454117793
What site mdm ,Surfline or other ?
caml, 1454117874
Yep sure ben & tobias odds are thats the case . Good points ben
tonybarber, 1454117897
Yep, valid questions. According to another chat (Quiksilver eyes private deal) Quik is out of chapter 11. The Eddie would be a great stepping stone to start generating cash. The event this is, would have to attract sponsors. The audience is hungry and looking forward to it. The location is magic. Given that this event is very selective on the conditions for obvious reasons, it is promising to see that there is swell on the horizon.
If it comes, the event will deliver.
maddogmorley, 1454118626
Yes Surfline...
Surfline's Kevin Wallis: "To clarify, the Eddie needs all day surf of 20’ Hawaiian, which translates to 30-40’ faces. A reading of 20’ swell on the buoys is not a requirement, although often happens on days big enough for the event to run.
"Waimea Bay needs very strong energy in the slightly shorter period bands of 15-17 seconds to really come alive. Very long period energy 18 seconds and above will focus more on some of the nearby outer reefs and leave the Bay in somewhat of a swell ‘void’. This is one of the reasons that Waimea was on the slower side, relatively speaking, first thing on Wednesday. At that point in the day, the swell was building in at very long periods of 19-25 seconds and Waimea was below the 20’ criteria. However, strong energy in the 17 second period band quickly filled in over the mid to later morning and especially the afternoon with solid 20’ surf and occasional close out sets in excess of 25’ (50’ faces)."
caml, 1454119475
[quote=maddogmorley]Yes Surfline...
Surfline's Kevin Wallis: "To clarify, the Eddie needs all day surf of 20’ Hawaiian, which translates to 30-40’ faces. A reading of 20’ swell on the buoys is not a requirement, although often happens on days big enough for the event to run.
"Waimea Bay needs very strong energy in the slightly shorter period bands of 15-17 seconds to really come alive. Very long period energy 18 seconds and above will focus more on some of the nearby outer reefs and leave the Bay in somewhat of a swell ‘void’. This is one of the reasons that Waimea was on the slower side, relatively speaking, first thing on Wednesday. At that point in the day, the swell was building in at very long periods of 19-25 seconds and Waimea was below the 20’ criteria. However, strong energy in the 17 second period band quickly filled in over the mid to later morning and especially the afternoon with solid 20’ surf and occasional close out sets in excess of 25’ (50’ faces)."[/quote]
Reply ; yep that's what I been trying to point out mdm , unfortunately swell period is a very much misunderstood factor that the average punter hasn't grasped how it works . But regardless of that let us discuss this further with the other reasons that are understood better
ant shannon, 1454130539
If they wrote a book about The Eddie, this would be in chapter 11.
tsunalu, 1454214615
Eddie Aikau went missing in the kiwi channel, the Hokuleia would have gone past Maui so why not move the contest to Peahi?
thermalben, 1454878211
No press releases or otherwise have been received as yet, but The Eddie has been given the yellow light for this Wednesday.
mick-free, 1454882087
Atleast they're being consistent with their communication.
thermalben, 1454883103
Pat Caldwell's notes last Friday said "This event is expected to be lower than 1/27" (ie the swell event this article was penned around). Also seems to have a very similar upwards trend as the last event, perhaps a few hours earlier - that is, leading edge filling in before dawn, steady upwards phase through the morning and a peak from lunchtime onwards.
caml, 1454931320
Eddie ?
caml, 1454933873
So this swell coming is a bigger period nnw angle . Big waves for the Eddie !
Epic swell run
thermalben, 1454956110
Eddie called on for Wednesday!
caml, 1454968667
So it turns out that it is called on ? they were just a waiting for the specific conditions bra !