caml, 1409712161
Good . Wheres the lwt now stu ? Nz/ tahiti has been getting swell for ages
Craig, 1409713440
Not wrong there Camel, it's been meandering off the east of New Zealand for a couple of weeks producing the continued run of swell.
It's currently moving off to the east now, (hence the swells coming more from the south, spreading up radially not from the ideal swell window) but a new strong node is due to push east of New Zealand early next week!
This should produce large swells for the end of next week and into the following weekend.
Current LWT moving east from NZ...
[img]http://i.imgur.com/n0WkdJh.png[/img]
Next Tuesday LWT, strong off the NZ East Coast and prime for Tahiti
[img]http://i.imgur.com/jcxsbrJ.pngg[/img]
fitzroy-21, 1409714145
Well Stu, I may just bump into you somewhere there ! But I dare say at the sight of any crowd we will sail off elsewhere.
Great looking forecast though. Have fun :)
eel, 1409714226
I was scouring your long range forecasts twice a day leading up to my trip to the ments in july. I found them pretty spot on and also used them to decide on the quiver. We got 2 solid swells on our trip which you guys predicted. I find your short board works pretty well over there, even on the bigger days. I rode my 5'11 most days and my 6'1 on a few of the bigger days. Took my 5'8 out on a couple of smaller days.
stunet, 1409716559
Unreal Fitz. If by chance you bump into my mob at least come up and say g'day.
stunet, 1409716750
Cheers Eel. Six foot is as big as I've ever had it in the Ments, and my standard shorty (5'10") covered it. Think I'll take a couple of them and maybe a 6'4". Got a 6'6" that's going unreal for me but unless the charts start blushing I'm not sure if I'll need it.
fitzroy-21, 1409716776
Will do.
I'll keep a close eye on the forecast on the lead up. Thanks for the long range report.
mibs-oner, 1409724595
i'd back that too. we scored a couple big days last year and my 6'0 step up was all over it. Didn't even wax up the 6'4. Next year i'm only taking 2 shorties and a 6'0. There's something about indo compared to here when it gets solid getting into them seems a lot easier. Maybe something to do with water temp or something???
have a good trip.
neville-beats-buddha, 1409728303
Reckon that Marco Luciano Occhilupo guy can surf big waves?
wesley, 1409730846
Any ideas as to what the Banyak Islands will be up to Stu/Ben with this swell? Anyone ever been? Tips for boards to take? Cheers!
donweather, 1409735995
Wes when will you be up there?
And please ensure your update next week Stu includes the LWT charts out past 21st Sept!!!
yew_shredding, 1409736193
You can't predict the future!! Don't jinx it swell net!
wesley, 1409736389
Will be there on Tuesday for ten days mate
donweather, 1409737793
Boat or land based Wes?
wesley, 1409738398
Boat.
caml, 1409739588
Plenty swell coming lucky for yous
donweather, 1409739799
Wes, which one?
caml, 1409746740
Stu & don etc wats the chance of the forecasted swell in 180 hrs fruiting ? Lookin good for sth swell indo
wesley, 1409764510
The boat is called The Dream, Don.
donweather, 1409774391
Caml are you talking about the swell that hits Indo in 180hrs or a storm that forms in the Indian Ocean in 180hrs. If it's the former then I'd say there's a good chance of it coming to fruition given the travel times are 4-5 days thus the storm formation is only 3 days or so away. Give or take a foot or so the forecast shouldn't be too far out.
barreldogs, 1409783645
Hey Don, don't wanna rush you, but can you answer Wes's question if you get a chance please? Kinda got a vested interest in the answer myself!
caml, 1409786448
Don it seems i frothed too early . You know lookin at the 180hr animation u see a red blob but its way too far out to actually become real . No doubt theres good swell for middle next week in nw wa & indo a few days later.
Craig, 1409790063
Wes and Barreldogs, looking at the map, it looks like southerly swells are blocked by Nias, so what you want is bigger SW groundswells from the Western Indian Ocean.
So size wise, I'd check the Nias forecast, and take a couple of feet off that, and then if the swell is more south, take even more off.
System generating swell for the 17th/18th even though a touch south of south-west will have real long periods and looks a gooden.
sbsb, 1409808453
Hi Wes and BD
Craig's forecasts are invaluable, but as for your question about the banyaks in particular you don't need to worry about the more south swells being blocked on the Bangkaru breaks unless they get right down to 185 or below, and then it depends a bit on the period. (Bay of Plenty needs more west in the swell). In fact if the swell's too west you probably won't surf those as it needs more south to line up well.
Most people a standard shortboard almost all the time, if you get Cobra or the left in the bay at 8 feet you might want a little more under you but that's a pretty rare occurrence. (Or if you want to take on the bombies!)
This page has some info you might find helpful http://www.surfbanyak.com/faq/seasonal-surf-conditions/
(disclaimer: I used to work for these guys).
I'll be over there end of September/beginning October, so hope this run of swell continues until then! Have a great trip guys!
gm14, 1409809954
i'm heading over to west java in 2-3 weeks. which of your forecasts you reckon would be most appropriate, ments / bali / wherever?? i'm assuming they'd all mean basically the same thing but who is to say.
Craig, 1409810576
Thanks for the info sbsb.
Craig, 1409810700
You're probably best having a look at both the Bali and Ments forecasts, keeping an eye on the South Sumatra outlook.
Keep in mind the forecast is for exposed spots, so if you're in slightly more protected areas it'll be smaller depending on direction.
Here's the link for West java: https://www.swellnet.com/reports/indonesia/java/west-java/forecast
gm14, 1409810838
cheers man. if recent conditions are anything to go by i'm really going to have to pack some balls haha.
barreldogs, 1409816967
Thanks heaps for that. Funny how I've looked at that site a few times for info, but for some reason never once bothered actually looking at the pics. Really good info about swell direction though thanks.
How recently did you part company with them? Wasn't you that inadvertently placed an outsider onto our "exclusive" booked boat was it? Hahahaha
donweather, 1409826563
Sbsb what's the best swell direction for treasures? SW?
Also I'm a wee bit confused by your bay of plenty comment. First you say it needs more west in the swell but then you say you won't be surfing it unless it has south in it? I'm confused?
sbsb, 1409833674
barreldogs The Dream is a boat surfbanyak have been an agent for alongside the owners' vessel The Seriti (a much better option in my opinion), and as you know some of your group went through another channel. Suffice to say that if not for some extra intervention on our side you would have probably found out about your extra pax when you got on the boat! Anyway this stuff is not really for a public forum, but those in the surf travel game know that with all that goes on you wouldn't enter the field for the money and often not for the fun. We were able to sort it anyway and hope you guys have a great trip!
donweather I meant that the Bay of Plenty on Tuangku (not where Treasures/Cobra and Turtles are on Bangkaru) is where the West is needed, if you look on the map you'll see why. Treasures is a bit more flexible than Cobra on swell direction, swells more west make the point more into four defined sections but also throw out more for a more intense barrel in those sections, whereas the more south swells usually run down the point for a more even ride and less consequential lip. But sometimes the sections become unmakeable in the more W swells. It does depend on the period as well - I thought I knew a few years ago what was what there but I've been surprised and learned why the Seriti skipper says "the forecast is a forecast" - sometimes you take the numbers as useful advertising but each swell really is its own thing and often the best thing is to get up in the morning and look at it (this might relate to the limitations of models and the lack of buoys and other infrastructure out there).
The bottom line is that if you're on a boat based there your skippers will want you surfing because then you are out of their hair, and most of them are great surfers themselves so rest assured they'll be doing everything they can to get you to the waves. Have a great one, being up the archipelago it doesn't get the size and intensity of the Ments or Bali but there are some world-class waves there and the crowd factor suits me! Feel free to ask any questions and happy to share what I can, it's not like it's a secret now it's on Swellnet!
barreldogs, 1409866136
Not having a go SB, just taking the piss out of what would have been a rather uncomfortable situation for the other punter if it had have eventuated ( I know I wouldn't want to be him on a boat by myself with everybody else on board being mates already - especially with one latecomer being denied because of him).
So pumped, and loving your reports SB - especially the one regarding crowds after the debacle at Snapper/Greenmount/Kirra last week. Yeeeewwwwwwwwwwwww!!!
Blowin, 1409888461
Just reading an old surf mag and Tom Carroll was asked which board he would take to a desert island surrounded by his favourite Indo waves. His answer was a 6'5" quad.
I'm partial to a bit of length myself. A not so distant boat trip I was on through the Ments saw most of the crew on 6'5"s . Very good surfers most of them.
A little bit of length is nice for the perfect waves on offer. Squirrelly is for kids. Of course not everyone agrees....
stunet, 1409889089
How distant Blowin? And you gotta remember TC was partial to a bit of length, saw some footage of him recently throwing around an inordinately long Rawson in head high Hawaiian waves. Not necessary.
indo-dreaming, 1409889568
Speaking on TC, board lengths and Indo..lets not forget this http://www.swellnet.com/news/surfpolitik/2013/09/20/revolution-undermine
indo-dreaming, 1409889873
Interesting read, been meaning to get up there for years, always heard different things on how heavy "Treasure island rights" are some guys say its quite heavy while others hollow sections but fun, you points on swell direction would explain a bit (coupled together with swell period)
stunet, 1409890409
Yep, things have changed. I think back to the boards I used to ride at some of the reefs I grew up near, at the time I thought the length was necessary. Now when I surf them I'm on boards 4"-6" inches shorter and there's no loss in performance.
sbsb, 1409892100
Yeah indo - you can see the difference between e.g. this video
Blowin, 1409892290
I was at the Ments in April / may . The TC interview was about a year old I think.
donweather, 1409893147
Well just so happens I'm picking up my new 6'5" Quadfather from Mark tomorrow!!! :)
Blowin, 1409895506
Each to their own. Just trying to help . What size waves are you riding on which equipment Stu ?
stunet, 1409895873
I've got two identical 5'10"s that go good in anything from 2'-6', then a 6'4" that will handle maxing Cronulla Point/Voodoo/etc so that's the step up covered. I'll wait till the charts totally reveal themselves before deciding on a fourth board, either a 5'10" with a wide tail block if it gets small, or head toward the other end of the board rack.
Blowin, 1409896843
What size board would you ride at say 8' G Land ?
stunet, 1409896985
7'0" gunned out pintail.
Blowin, 1409897108
You don't need the same for Voodoo ?
stunet, 1409897340
Like G'land, Voodoo has girth, it has thickness, and you gotta cover ground quick, but the difference is Vooey is a ledge takeoff. You don't need a real long board to paddle into it, in fact too much nose and you'll nosedive. There's a lot of curve in the wave. 6'8" tops for me.
The 6'4" has a bit of extra foam under the chest, low rocker, and two layers of 6 Oz top and bottom. Fucker is fast and bulletproof.
Blowin, 1409897830
That sounds like exactly what I just got off Mitchell Rae for the North West .... Only with parabolic stringers and it's a 6'5".
stunet, 1409898191
Mitchell Rae? Beautiful boards. Boards that perform are invaluable, but get a board that performs and looks like a piece of art...well, you talk about those relationships even 20 years after the fact.
Hope it goes well for you.
donweather, 1409898456
Stu, are you over there around the 16th-18th Sept?
stunet, 1409898526
Yeah Don, 14th till 21st or 22nd (can't remember).
donweather, 1409899137
Current forecasts are indicating you may wish to pack that bigger board for your first day surfing (Sunday 14th)!!!
barreldogs, 1409900274
Oh Don, I think I just developed a man crush on you and your reports (so long as they're positive like that between say September 8-19th)
Craig, 1409900878
Looking very Tasty barreldogs, looking at waves in the 8ft+ range at this stage at exposed spots in the Ments.
Blowin, 1409901508
The board goes amazingly well. Mitchell is a legend. It is a work of art. Or was... Till I dropped the fucking thing .
I'd heard he was good, went and saw him, he told me about himself and his whole deal. He asked what I was chasing and then told me how he would provide it. Which he did. And he was a gentleman of his word and went the extra yard to look after me. I can't credit the man or his work enough. Do yourself a favour ( sorry Molly )..... Give him a visit.
donweather, 1409954755
And some more based on latest forecasts for Sunday 14th!! Stu are you actually surfing this day or still travelling?
stunet, 1409955066
Ha! Yeah, saw that Don. Apparently I get there at 10am on the 14th and the swell appears to peak that arvo. Looking very solid now, think I'll be taking Blowin's advice and walking to the other end of the board rack.
Hope that swell comes off, getting very excited now.
donweather, 1409967489
Just keeps on growing for Sunday week!!!
Craig, 1409968280
That it does :o
caml, 1409986017
Haha huey is delivering for the lwt spell . Yehoow
donweather, 1409987641
If this swell for Sunday week comes to fruition will it be one of the biggest swells to Indy in some time? I can't recall seeing that size and more so swell period for a long while.
Craig, 1409987818
There's been a couple Don, but man this one is another beauty. Core wind speeds reaching 55-60kts generating those super long periods. Great stuff!
Craig, 1409988333
Also, with another node of the LWT peaking east of New Zealand this Sunday/Monday (discussed with Camel elsewhere) a very strong polar storm will fire up, generating a large swell for Chopes..
What a beast!
[img]https://s3.amazonaws.com/swellnet-worldwinds/2014090518/charts/Australia-East-Coast-lge/swellnet.gfs.dsfcwinds.36.480x320.png[/img]
[img]https://s3.amazonaws.com/swellnet-worldwinds/2014090518/charts/Australia-East-Coast-lge/swellnet.gfs.dmslp.36.480x320.png[/img]
caml, 1409990620
How big r u calling for papatowai craig
caml, 1409992734
Msw says 7--11 ft can someone confirm that theyre undercalling it . Always for that location.
wellymon, 1409993079
Was thinking the same Caml,,,?
A good friend of mine from Dunedin will be all over it, will check him out.
SN's swell WAM's look like it will pass by....? Never know tho as its still many days away..?
Geez the 19th SN Swell WAM's for Vic are massive 40 ft plus, Purple stuff.
Snow for the South land of that system tho.
Craig, 1409995020
We've got a lot bigger than that, 5.1m @14.9s. Not the best system as it forms late in the swell window but still very big!
caml, 1409998479
Yes welly also when i check windguru dunedin i cant see much size ever also . Can u explain . Been checkn msw pptwi for 2 yrs never says much . If u check msw princetown its always triple in comparison .craig thanks i wanted to hear such
caml, 1410009603
Where to surf on a 20 sec period next wknd ?
donweather, 1410051129
There would certainly be some novelty breaks appearing with that swell next Sunday/Monday although models look to have the swell peaking overnight under the cover of darkness now so you might just be safe Stu!!! ;)
mick-free, 1410065304
Camel,
You can check the sites surf2surf.co.nz and gosurf. Greeny does a pretty good job doing a forecast.
They have had a good run of waves over there. Check out
http://www.boxoflight.com/?report=263#report
http://www.boxoflight.com/?report=270#report
I haven't really got any specific buoys. When we used to go down there, just waited for Dunno's to be massive and then head to the Catlins.
Geez you've had a nice winter tucked away in the bight haha!
mick-free, 1410068424
Perfect direction for 16-18th Sept, forecasting 219 degrees for Eastern Indonesia, more SSW for Ments
caml, 1410069899
Mickfree thanks will check that . Nobody knows where i am
mick-free, 1410072756
I heard reports of a camel sighting close to Penong earlier in the winter....
caml, 1410080782
True mick . Just one of the places to cool off after goin awol . You heard of hyden wave rocks ? Its howlin offshore & big today !
caml, 1410080911
Ps dont tell cuplifter i went there & didnt stay back at black
caml, 1410082250
The locals will be angry u mentioned there spot mick . Too crowded anyway
uplift, 1410083168
'Ps dont tell cuplifter i went there & didnt stay back at black'
When are you gonna wake up and stay in your own kitchen. Woulda been a perfect view. Betta than getting crushed and going left at caves. Zero crowd too.
caml, 1410085837
The cup you are lifting is the champion of sorting out the kirra kooks cup . You da champ . But hey no crowds at the lefts i been surfing .
sir ambrose beachfucker, 1410086929
caml somebody wants to argue check the lunar cycle
caml, 1410087016
Actually i was back at my homebreak "cs" on the day of the year recently . 3ft & amasing . Fickle wave its only been good once in 3yrs . & u think i should stay there localising it ?
caml, 1410087265
Sir ! Haha yeah im the one lunacy trawling this site for ages looking for a bight , finally got one and i think its a big one . Hows the storm track & high pressure forecast for next week ! Sept spring ! Shark season low crowds cool green water ...
mick-free, 1410087909
yeah - just about had biffo at the local pub - they don't like those city types with funny coloured wetsuits. Met Haydos, Monk and the Elliston crew, great bunch of blokes. Had a week there best surf
uplift, 1410098704
Been to the island yet? Whats that? Don't forget before you became a big boy heavy, when you were the underground, well, the undertable Gland 'enforcer'... ant exciting tale.
fitzroy-21, 1410125466
Hey Stu,
Day 1 is looking the goods.
donweather, 1410126440
Just a wee bit!!!
caml, 1410128896
Mick thanks for links. Im stoked to see pics of mate leroy & much older mate smarty charging
fitzroy-21, 1410130562
Hey Don,
You're heading over the region too aren't you? Enjoy.
BTW, I reccon you'll like the QF. Mark does some nice boards.
stunet, 1410130974
Ha ha ha...lovely understatement Fitz. Would've been nice to get the feet in the wax for a day or two, but it's not to be, first afternoon - boom! - 10-12 foot. Not sure how that forecast figure is gonna transfer to the local waves, I imagine we'd be surfing Telescopes under those conditions and that apparently misses a touch of swell, but still, 10 foot straight off the boat is gonna be a jolt.
donweather, 1410131321
Yep. Banyaks from 21st Sept. Forecast is looking a little underwhelming for our first few days.
And yeah I've already got a 6'1" QF and love it so I'm sure my 6'5" will go gangbusters as my step up.
stunet, 1410141325
Has anyone ridden Telescopes or any of the waves in that region at size? Wanna give a heads up how they are - quality, board size needed, etc etc?
JFC, 1410142657
I am coming on the Aloita Mentawi trip Stu. Probably arrive with you. I haven't moved to the new style of shorter everything except my hair. Those banana boards early 90's stopped me thinking I should ride what the pros ride lol.I am taking my standard 6'5" my 6' 8" egan and my 7'. I am thinking of leaving the 7' at home though and filing the board bag with new undies and possibly some dipers and a dumby !! Looking forward to seeing your forecast hopefully wednesday and meeting with you. GIS is my game. It will be a great trip I am sure !!
stunet, 1410143795
Cheers JFC, look forward to meeting you. Craig does his Indo forecast tomorrow, and I'll also do another 'Tracking the Mentawai forecast' article tomorrow. I can't help myself though, here's a screen shot of the forecast for the first two days of our trip:
There's still a week to go so the specifics may waver, but shit, we're gonna have swell. I'm gonna include a 7'0" in my board bag, might whack a few spare sets of undies in there too.
donweather, 1410144499
With swell periods approaching 20 seconds, I reckon you'll need every bit of that 7'0" Stu at the exposed breaks!!!
Oh and can you please save some swell for me, as the start of my trip is looking VERY mediocre indeed!!!
udo, 1410144896
Any vacancies for this trip ?
caml, 1410145063
Yeah i just rememberd this threads about mentawai forecast . Why do i keep blah blah about aust southern coasts & nz ) ? Looking good there too . Craigs progged lwt is doin its thing . Ive seen these patterns for yrs but only just learnd its called a lwt . & yeah a 20 period is reason for equipment upgrade
caml, 1410145165
Thanks craig ! & back off topic , how bigs papas today ?
stunet, 1410145654
How long you out there for Don?
Craig, 1410145810
No worries, the LWT is such a great tool for medium to long-range forecasting.
And not sure on Papas but the satellite observations are looking great, fetch of 50-60kt+ winds aimed straight up there..
[img]http://i.imgur.com/jTvocDK.png[/img]
stunet, 1410145843
Ha! Sold out a week or so ago, apparently.
JFC, 1410146169
Holly shite.....My mate Grant who will be with us is taking some water camera gear , he is a flim producer etc. might just end up with an epic reel but all Occy lol. We will be okay, I am sure there would be a spot or two that doesn't cop it all and could be 6ft not 12ft. i haven't caught a wave 10ft in 10 years lol. This week can't go quick enough though that is for sure. Talk next week Stu.
donweather, 1410146603
21st - 4th Oct.
donweather, 1410146671
Be good if we could get some LWT plots for 18th onwards please!!!! :)
Craig, 1410147000
Ok Don, the 18th onwards isn't looking favourable with a bigger upper ridge persisting from the 18th through to the 22nd and onwards..
Hopefully something changes, but it's not too good at this stage.
Here's the 18th:
[img]http://i.imgur.com/Z7w7EPc.png[/img]
And the 22nd:
[img]http://i.imgur.com/5aAJDLP.png[/img]
mick-free, 1410147941
Let me know if you get a late cancellation
fitzroy-21, 1410149954
If it's not to much trouble Stu, can you do a screen grab for the 15th - 26th when you or Craig do an update later in the week please. Still trying to decide on the 3rd board to put into the bag!
Much appreciated.
mick-free, 1410152316
Thats the only Hyden I know, its offshore there everyday!
http://www.waverock.com.au/
indo-dreaming, 1410155548
Surfed telescopes pretty solid five-six foot sets, gets heavier and hollower especially if low/half tide but still not as heavy as other Mentawai A grade waves at that size (although can be a bit shifty), IMO can still get away with everyday hp board.
Like I think you said above more south swells can miss it, id expect it to be around the 6ft size maybe 8ft at the peak of the swell..
At least your in the right area for that kind of swell with those winds "telescopes" and can always surf the other smaller lefts "ikan muka" and "tikus" for warm up surfs or if it gets out of control.
Ha ha..but pack a gun if you plan on surfing "Icelands" at that size.
stunet, 1410156299
Cheers for the info ID. A mate of mine has been staying at my house the last few months. He moved out last weekend but left a few boards in the rack, one of them a beautiful 7'0" Banksy. He said I could use it, so...I think I will. Never thought I'd take a 7'0" up to the Ments but dont wanna be caught short.
blow-in-9999, 1410157563
Certain exposed spots will pick up (noticeably) more than that forecasts (!) and handle it too.
The well known island however will be somewhat smaller.
Craig, 1410158417
Bigger than forecast? Our models currently have 15ft for exposed spots in that region. It's not very often at all that Indo gets bigger than this, and I'd say it'll probably be in the 12ft+ range.
Also this 15ft forecast is surfers feet (ie 6x overhead) not face feet.
donweather, 1410160675
Now listen here Craig, I don't want you to give me bad news!!!! ;)
I want to hear good news god damn it!!!
The node that's between SW WA and Heard Island on the 18th and 22nd, is that the same node? ie it doesn't move for 4 days, or is it a new node moving across the Indian between the 18th and 22nd?
donweather, 1410160803
Also, from the home page, when you click on the article that's been responded to the last on the RHS of the home page, what's the god damn quickest way to get to the last comment without having to scroll down to the bottom of all the comments on the first page of the article and then hitting "last". It's giving me the shits with these long comments/responses on the articles.
caml, 1410161546
Yeah me too ! Re don request . So craig does that lwt go under bight & nz after the 18th?
Craig, 1410163429
In that model run posted above the LWT moves slightly towards the Bight but then weakens, to only re-strengthen right under South West WA again.
So the nodes don't always continue moving east, they some-times stall in certain areas for a period, and this is when selected regions see continued swell and frontal activity for as long as it stays in the area.
Haven't got 00z through yet, but you'll be pleased to know Don, 18z didn't have the blocking pattern and instead had a nice new node on the 22nd. Will keep a close eye on them to see which way that start consolidating on, as that is a long way in the future.
Oh and re comments, yeah annoying and a fix is on to do list. Thanks for your patience, kills me as well.
kookster, 1410164257
Howdy guys. Can anyone tell me if the same swells that hit the Ments are same as Maldives? In he Maldives same time as Don is in Banyaks basically 20th to 27th
blow-in-9999, 1410165806
I wouldn't be surprised. It's the biggest swell magnet in indo.
donweather, 1410172868
Kookster What part of the Maldives as they each have different swell windows.
kookster, 1410173407
Central or Southern atolls is about as much as I know Don sorry.
kookster, 1410173468
And I'm taking a 5'11 and 6'1 Quadfather :-) love them best boards I've ever ridden
donweather, 1410174626
Well they're still both very different swell windows as far as I'm aware. Central atolls won't pick up SW swells. Southern atolls will. Central prefers a SE swell coming off the top of a flat top semi stationary high pressure system parked off the WA coast. The exact system I don't want!!!! More so known as a blocking high!!!
And yep quadfathers are all I ride these days!!!
caml, 1410214550
Ok craig . I just meant separate nodes one at each wa & nz . I didnt believe it mives eastward . They just seem to appear when theres lack of high pressure cells . Ie wa at moment
caml, 1410214743
Craig ,ben , is it possible the20 sec plus swell progged for weekend will be as big as the well 9th aug ? It is showing phenominal size & period
Craig, 1410222213
Firstly Camel, the nodes of the LWT rotate around the globe, strengthening and weakening as they go, moving faster when there's more of them.
So if there's 5 strong nodes then they will move around quicker than if there were only 3 drawn out nodes.
Then the only reason you see stationary highs is when a trough of the LWT sits over an area, ie the dip between nodes.
Now, with regards to the size of this swell compared to the swell that hit WA on the 9th, it is looking very similar in size with even a touch more period due to the stronger and more sustained core wind speeds of 50-60kts.
The only issue is, is that these real strong winds associated with the large periods are created a long way away, south-east of South Africa and Madagascar and as a result the swell will see more decay and be less consistent.
I'd say it'll be around the ball park though!
caml, 1410223573
Wow
lopez, 1410224838
Hi Cam,
Have you got around to surfing that Board from Al you won.?
caml, 1410226448
Hi G , yes i won 2 AB boards & had one custom shaped . Now which one dya mean ? Craig thats gnarly about wind strength making an even bigger period than other swell . Theres unitial forerunners progged at 26 sec on fri at w.a. Underneath the bigger shorter swells. Sat i guess will be less swell height but even bigger period than aug 9 . As u say it could be same size .i guess same same but different . Less consistant , and more west in direction which will be a major factor . Can u detaul a bit more about its potential seeing it is a rare monster ? Cheers G & craig . C
stunet, 1410226451
I'm closing the comments on this article as Part 2 is now live:
Testing the Mentawai long range forecast: Part 2