Sheepdog, 1401576524
I'd look at a possible upgrade for "June 7 onwards"...... An umpteeth low may form, or a very strong trough wedged north the high at least, creating a fetch of "above trade swell" proportions.... Things should be clearer tomorrow....
mitchvg, 1401675209
whoops.
Getting some flat top highs now :)
Sheepdog, 1401677591
Monday, 9th june, 0600....... What a peculiar map....... A precursor? 9th thru 16th could be quite interesting....
donweather, 1401678214
Which model, time run SD? GFS 18z run?
Sheepdog, 1401678618
Don - http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain®ion=swp&noofdays=7
Also have a look at your bellmere site.... Plus check 16th/17th whilst there too....
mitchvg, 1401679276
And I'd say the Mbah bouy is registering some energy from the east, which was mentioned above.
donweather, 1401679311
That's 18z GFS run SD. I'd much prefer the EC latest prog.
http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!Australia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014060112!!/
And 16th/17th.....that's a fortnight away mate. I know you work for NOAA but for us mere mortals that don't have access to the inside manipulations of the computer models, 14 day weather charts should just be laughed at.
donweather, 1401679563
Actually SE according to Byron and Brisbane buoys.
mitchvg, 1401681658
So if the "small, long range E’ly swell generated by an unfavourably-aligned low NE of New Zealand earlier this week." is actually arriving here from the SE... why?
mitchvg, 1401681768
The great circle paths are not that close, I've tooled around in google earth trying to see if it was possible to confuse swell directions, and the apparent changes are too insignificant
Sheepdog, 1401686731
Looks e - ese to me.....
donweather, 1401686831
Ok my bad. I thought you were referring to the other lower period swell. It's E/SE for the swell you're talking about. Around 115-120 deg or thereabouts.
thermalben, 1401687495
Singular buoy data has to be taken with a grain of salt - unfortunately it's not always representative of what's in the water. And it also depends on the buoy manaufaturer, as they all do things slightly differently than the others. For example, the NSW buoys (all Datawell) struggle to display the correct directional data if there are two swells in the water with a similar period - it'll split the difference (so if there's a NE swell and a SE swell with a similar period, it'll display the singular direction value as E'ly).
The spectral data should be a more accurate representation of the various directions however I have observed many anomalies over the last year or so (ever since the spectral data was released) that seem out of whack with what I have observed at the beach. Not sure for the reasoning behind this - maybe my own interpretation is incorrectly biased - but ever since the new displays were live on the MHL website, something hasn't felt quite right.
thermalben, 1401687761
BTW, averaging the singular direction data at Byron and Tweed Heads over the last 12 hours shows that it's been E/SE. Brisbane is SE though, not sure for the reason behind that (although the Brisbane buoy's direction is frequently a little skewed against beach obs IMO).
freeride76, 1401688521
It was ESE. Just bigger than called.
mitchvg, 1401690598
I was in the water at Tallows beachie early yesterday arvo FR, and I'd say the sets were lining up from somewhere sth of straight in, so SSE. Didn't count the period unfortunately cos I was paddling around though. Did see small lines coming from N of E, but don't think it was backwash from the headland. The Bay didn't have nothing.
If you drew lines of best fit across the period graphs (mean and peak), by eye, I'd say you could match that to directional change towards the E (keeping in mind your note about mixing swell directions of similar period ben), from today. Perhaps the mbah buoy peaking with 13sec energy yesterday was all Sth energy making it's way in and dominating all other tiny residual swell? Today is 'the east swell'?
mitchvg, 1401691020
So FR, "it" was today? I ask cos I'm wondering if the little ENEish lines I saw were a proper swell to factor into next time when hunting for some bowlyness on less crowded stretches
mitchvg, 1401691775
And DW your initial comment about SE was implying that the Brisbane and Byron buoys can be taken with a lesser amount of salt than others, right?
donweather, 1401692325
MV, I just always rely more so on Brisbane and Byron (partic byron with it's multi-spectral display) if I want to see what swell periods and directions they are. Tweed, Goldy and Mbah all get contaminated (directionwise) when there's longer period swells due to their location and/or shallower water.
Sheepdog, 1401693706
"14 day weather charts should just be laughed at." I'd agree...... 90% of the time...... But when the 7 day chart spells out certain precursors.... Well........ You'll notice patterns one day, champ ;)
donweather, 1401693920
Ok, I'll watch and learn, champ.
Sheepdog, 1401696279
hehehe........ Moisture...... It's all about moisture..... ;)
donweather, 1401699530
Well whilst we're talking moisture how's this chart for early June!!!
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=216&focus=mh
Sheepdog, 1401704475
Don, looks impressive.... Bottomline, somethings on the brew.... Seen warm starts to winter like this before -all 4 maps show heaps of warm moist easterlies.... Big "dead" area between 2 highs off east coast..... Upper level moisture moving in from west on 2 predicted occasions (9th - 11th, 15th -17th) - even that benign ecmwf map you supplied showed inland rain over NSW with no surface system - obviously an upper level trough....... All 4 maps metvuw, bellmere, ecmwf, accessg show strong indications to possible ecl..... one scenario for 11/6 coinciding with upper system, second scenario for 16th/17th with next upper system....... Just a matter of which of the two upper systems, and what part of coast between Townsville and Eden.... Time will make things more clear on that one.....
These potential ecl sytems often hail the true start to winter ( after a warm june intro') , close to the solstice... They "flush" autumn patterns out.....
mitchvg, 1401704920
In this case Doggie, I think the ECMWF colour means wind speed in m/s. Not to knock your whole argument down though.
mitchvg, 1401705066
It still looks like a troughy high with that L just sth of New Cal, so moisture feeding across to Aus no doubt
mitchvg, 1401705505
And a massive warm pool(?) above, by the 500hPa (height? in ? units). More signs of moisture feeding in and potentially spinning up
Sheepdog, 1401757096
Mitch, yeah my bad re' that one map... But doesn't knock prediction down at all, if not reinforces it...... That looks like the most dodgy of the 4 maps anyway imo.... Weatherwise, something is definitely on the brew for the east coast re' that time frame... Eyes wide open... And lets hope it correlates with maximum swell potential...