Surf forecast model not updating (April 2022)

thermalben's picture
thermalben started the topic in Saturday, 9 Apr 2022 at 6:24am

Just a quick heads up - our primary data supplier for the wave model (NOAA) has been experiencing tech issues over the last few days, so our wave model hasn't updated for a few cycles.

Latest update from NOAA is: "We have a team dedicated still to resolve all of the remaining issues with access, and apologize for the disruption. Thank you for your patience while we work to fully restore our systems".

At the moment the outage doesn't seem to have greatly affected our computer generated forecasts though we'll keep an eye on this and update accordingly (as always, the Forecaster Notes and its associated comment section will contain the latest and most up to date information).

Apologies for any inconvenience.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 10 Apr 2022 at 6:09am

NOAA have advised that their services restored overnight, however our systems haven't clicked back in yet. We'll look into this ASAP.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 10 Apr 2022 at 1:50pm

Looks like things are back on track. Latest model run came through, all looking sweet.

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman Monday, 11 Apr 2022 at 9:24am

Same issue again?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 11 Apr 2022 at 10:50am

Yep. Righted itself yesterday lunchtime, came off the bandwagon overnight. Looking into it.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 12 Apr 2022 at 7:04am

OK, we seem to have fixed the problem (fingers crossed!) - however, model forecast data may be a little under for the next week or so (when a model run is missed, the 'swell growth' expected for that time frame disappears). We'll put a warning at the top of the forecast page to advise.

surfiebum's picture
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surfiebum Tuesday, 12 Apr 2022 at 8:07am

Yeah, the ex-TC Fili swell is entirely gone from the sunny coast forecast. 1ft from the SSE apparently :D

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 12 Apr 2022 at 9:09am

Yeah, that's the unfortunate outcome when the wave model has to be restarted following some kind of failure - it doesn't have the correct start up conditions (i.e. the swell energy already in the ocean, generated days ago). So, all of the swell production over the weekend is missing - the model had no idea those winds occured.

Take a look at the Bali forecast (screenshot below): https://www.swellnet.com/reports/indonesia/bali/uluwatu/forecast

Because of the long travel time from the swell source to the destination, the first swells (being generated today) won't arrive through Indo until early next week. All of the swell trains showing on the charts prior to then is locally generated, short period windswell.

Although this is a rare occurence (maybe a half a dozen times in twelve years), I'm still very annoyed that it has happened.

As such, we'll develop and implement a solution so that in the event of an outage, we can 'backfill' the model with at least a week's worth of data, and then run the machine enough times to make up the difference (so, four model runs per day = twenty eight model runs per week, which at an hour and a half per model run will take a day and a half to complete).

bigredcouch's picture
bigredcouch's picture
bigredcouch Tuesday, 12 Apr 2022 at 3:26pm

Hi Ben,

Thanks for the transparency. I see the models have successfully undergone another update. From what day onward would you consider to be accurate for swell?

Thanks

Mjrobdog's picture
Mjrobdog's picture
Mjrobdog Wednesday, 13 Apr 2022 at 8:25am

When will it be fixed?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 13 Apr 2022 at 9:28am

The model was fixed overnight Monday, but the accuracy will be variable for the next few days depending on where you live.

East Coast Australia should be fine from now on, but locations with longer travel times - WA, Vic, SA etc - may need a few more days to sort itself out.

Long range locations like Indonesia will be good to go from early next week.

Striderinthechannel's picture
Striderinthechannel's picture
Striderinthechannel Wednesday, 13 Apr 2022 at 6:41pm

Hi Ben, Do you know if the SA yorke peninsula forecast has updated to be correct currently or is the model still faulty? if so could you give a quick summary of the next few days? im tossing up doing a trip there over Easter or staying in Torquay

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 13 Apr 2022 at 6:49pm

The SA forecaster notes have all the gold Strider. https://www.swellnet.com/reports/australia/south-australia/middleton/for...

Tonelocal's picture
Tonelocal's picture
Tonelocal Thursday, 14 Apr 2022 at 8:09am

looks like its very wrong for the indonesia area still.....

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 14 Apr 2022 at 8:10am

Yep, owing to swells being generated some 5-7 days in the past and those not being in the data.

ruckus's picture
ruckus's picture
ruckus Saturday, 16 Apr 2022 at 7:35pm

Hey team, hope you’re all having a great Easter

Your SEQLD & NNSW report states;

This is expected to generate a sustained period of large, and sometimes wind affected southerly swells from Thursday onwards - favouring Northern NSW with the most size - holding through the weekend and the first half of the following week.

Are the long range charts / modelling still not resolving properly? They are calling a drop of in swell Friday and through the days following. Going to be in the hood just working out whether I need to organise a car or not :)

cam.jw's picture
cam.jw's picture
cam.jw Sunday, 17 Apr 2022 at 11:21am

Are these long term swell graphs fixed?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 17 Apr 2022 at 3:27pm

Yep.

cac's picture
cac's picture
cac Sunday, 17 Apr 2022 at 7:51pm

Indo charts seem to have regressed again this arvo, checked this morning and they were looking correct and then this arvo looking off again?

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman Wednesday, 20 Apr 2022 at 1:08pm

Same problem again?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 20 Apr 2022 at 1:11pm

No, NOAA had a planned data outage (we were advised a few months ago). Should be back up to speed this afternoon.

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman Monday, 23 May 2022 at 10:05am

Model issue again?