COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 10:21pm

BD, nobody is pinning you down and giving you a shot champ, but there are consequences for your lifestyle choice.
WTF should the taxpayer pick up the tab for you if you require hospital treatment for covid if you're too stupid to get a simple injection that would massively reduce your chances of needing hospital treatment?
You should also be charged a premium for health and travel insurance. WTF should I be charged higher premiums to cover your stupid arse?
And then of course there's the next inevitable variant. The vaccines were very effective in limiting transmission during the delta wave, not so much with omicron. WTF should you be allowed to go anywhere you want putting others in danger because you're too stupid to get vaccinated?
Yes the vaccines aren't perfect but they do significantly help protect people from getting covid and needing advanced medical treatment. I'm kind of getting the shits with weak "my body my choice (no consequences)" flogs who want everyone else to bend over backwards and pay for their stupid lifestyle choices.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 10:25pm

VL I really would be happy to be left to rot for the selfish anti vax clown that you've made me out to be than to be protected by the ilks of people like you and the propaganda you swallow daily.
Death doesn't care which side youre on.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 10:30pm

I don't think I can imagine the levels of fear you live with BD, I mean, you must feel personally targeted on a daily basis. Sadly, you've built the literal mountain out of a molehill here - one tiny needle - maximum irrational fear.

And despite your broad-brush and weird assumptions - I'm not in any way a hoarder. I was firmly pissed off throughout 2020 here in Melbs watching carnts empty the shelves because they felt the world collapsing around them. It's the epitome of privileged - there's literally people who can't afford a day's groceries, yet some people felt they needed to stack their fridges and pantries with way too much shit, which probably mostly went to waste anyway.

Also - @gsco, see what you've done? Don't encourage BD....for all of our sakes.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 10:42pm
bluediamond wrote:

So Novavax got approved. Hadn't seen that. Well that's good!

Because I'm so 'anti vax'
I've been open to the right medication all along. And I've made that clear. I've been sceptical of a medical trial that has left severe life long injuries on its participants, without offering either treatment options, even though proven options are available, or an alternative tried and tested vaccine. The push for the Mrna vaccines MUST be linked to the criminal history and actions of the companied pushing them. Ive posted all the evidence here before. Its been ignored by the pro covid dungeon dwellers. A clear agenda is in place, freedom of information has been withheld, and you lot wonder WHY all the questions confrontation and discontent.
If people choose to b vaccinated good on em. I do applaud their conviction. But to assume you can force that choice from someone based on everything we now know..fuck, sorry, but you should be hung.

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 11:00pm

25th Jan 2020 > Oz Covid - 2 years on....
Sharon openly recalls the first days of WHO Hooter > Covid > labs > Oz 1st virus transmission...

28th Jan 2020 > tbb will share the Goldie Covid Scare from same timeline!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7937217/Coronavirus-suspected-c...

Not said! Oz role in bigger picture!
Most nation's labs were supplied with case/s for virus to study before countdown to WHO hooter.
WHO had actually detailed how best to export Covid from Wuhan to approved labs!
Clever crew...These first City [+] sites play larger roles (eg:) Goldie > Diamond Princess > Qld CHO
Coincidence that Cities had #1 Bio Labs & cases were Military / Uni / Wuhan sister company reps!
It's no accident the Virus Outbreaks located near these Bio lab centres...not evil?
In fact some early Trials were included from same centres.
Not said here! CMO Brendan was still claiming you couldn't catch Covid from another! (Hence the trials!)
Recall he was pipped for Australian of the Year > One year on...a year ago today!

PS: Not long after this interview, our WHO rep Sharon was diagnosed with brain cancer!
swellnet crew wish Sharon the best of health...thanx for sharing the origin of our Oz covid story!
https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NC2131H005S00
0:00 - 9:00 > Oz Covid origin
9:00 - 15:30 > Modelling / Future
15:30- 19:20 > Career / HIV
19:20 -27:35 > Family origin.

Bonus OZ Day Double Dose..."Vaccine the inside story" features Qld V451 Vaccine (SBS Sign in)
https://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/video/1933731395628/vaccine-the-inside-s...

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 10:47pm

Apologies Stok. Just a typical Melbourne wanker then.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 10:50pm

BTW stok, try telling my friend who's life may never be the same again, it's just one little needle. Just hope this never happens to anyone you are close to.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 11:09pm
bluediamond wrote:

So fuck, sorry, but you should be hung.

Please, do continue BD, the night is young and the rabbit holes are deep.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 11:14pm

Omicron Is Spreading. Resistance Is Futile
The good news is that the variant’s mildness makes preventing infection much less of a priority. As the Omicron wave crests, there’s bad news and good news. The bad news is that the main strategies for slowing its spread—repeated testing, masks and vaccine boosters—are largely futile for that purpose. The good news is that while protecting the vulnerable remains vital, slowing the spread of the virus needn’t be the priority. The biggest danger from Omicron is probably acute hospital staffing shortages, in part because of asymptomatic employees who stay home from work after testing positive.

Although Covid testing can be useful, it also has important limitations. The “gold standard” PCR tests are frequently too sensitive; research has shown that in many cases people who test positive are no longer contagious. The increasingly used rapid antigen tests have the opposite problem, often failing to detect infections during the earlier part of the five-day isolation period of presumed contagiousness. This coronavirus, especially the Omicron variant, is so fast-moving that mass testing and contact tracing, and probably even isolation and quarantine, can’t slow it down significantly. The U.K. and other countries, unlike the U.S., already had widespread rapid-testing capacity during their recent surges, yet they experienced the same meteoric rise in cases. As with other interventions such as booster shots, testing is most useful for those at high risk of serious complications, who might benefit from early treatment.

As for masking, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently acknowledged that cloth masks do relatively little to prevent spread. Some experts on coronaviruses, including epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, for nearly two years have questioned the efficacy of masks. A recent rigorous review by his University of Minnesota research group concludes: “We are well past the emergency phase of this pandemic, and it should be well-known by now that wearing cloth face coverings or surgical masks, universal or otherwise, has a very minor role to play. . . . It is time to stop overselling their efficacy and unrealistic expectations about their ability to end the pandemic.” The first large randomized community-level study, published last month in Science, found that while generic surgical masks provided a modest (about 10%) reduction in the risk of infection from Delta, cloth masks didn’t significantly reduce risk. Masks may be even less protective against an extremely contagious variant like Omicron.

That has led to calls for mandatory N95-type masks, which are more effective but harder to use. Some schools have even mandated them for children. Yet two years is a long time for anyone’s face to be covered for many hours a day, and it’s an interminably long time for young children, possibly leading to lasting psycho-social and other harms. Like Delta and earlier variants, Omicron doesn’t seriously threaten the vast majority of children; preliminary evidence suggests much less risk for youth than from Delta. An increasing number of public-health experts, including infectious-disease specialist Monica Gandhi, have called for ending school mask mandates soon. And while vaccines and boosters continue to offer strong protection against serious illness and death—and are therefore vitally important to those at high risk—they’re less effective at preventing infection, especially with the Omicron variant. While a new CDC study finds that boosters substantially reduce risk of infection as well as hospitalization from Omicron, countries like the U.K. and Israel that had widespread booster coverage before Omicron struck have also seen unprecedented surges in cases.

In any case, even if you get a booster now, the current surge probably will have subsided by the time immunity kicks in. It’s possible that future variants will arise against which currently administered boosters would still be useful, although by then immunity may have waned significantly. The European Medicines Agency recently cautioned that repeated boosters may weaken the immune system over time. Which brings us to the good news: Because the new variant is relatively mild and so many people already have some immunity from vaccines, prior infection or both, Omicron’s explosive spread is much less threatening than previous waves. A recent Southern California study looked at more than 50,000 patients infected with the new variant. Not one required mechanical ventilation and only one died, compared with 14 deaths and 11 ventilations out of some 17,000 infected by the Delta variant during the same period. Consistent with evidence from other countries, hospitalizations were considerably lower and average hospital stays much shorter among Omicron than Delta patients.

Although reported numbers of “Covid hospitalizations” are up nationally, these figures include patients admitted for other reasons who incidentally test positive. Based on data from several states and the U.K., it appears that roughly half these admissions likely aren’t caused mainly by the virus. Health and Human Services Department data indicate the total number of patients in U.S hospitals has hardly budged over the past six months. Because the new variant primarily targets the upper airways instead of the lungs, doctors report that few patients are requiring ventilation or even supplemental oxygen. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates in the Lancet that the number of Omicron deaths “seems to be similar in most countries to the level of a bad influenza season in northern hemisphere countries.” In 2017-18, the flu caused some 52,000 deaths in the U.S., probably peaking at more than 1,500 a day.

Public-health authorities are beginning to come to terms with the passing of the Covid emergency. Six experts who advised the Biden transition, including Mr. Osterholm, earlier this month called for a pivot toward accepting Covid as an endemic disease, following the example of several European countries. As Anthony Fauci has acknowledged, “just about everybody” will eventually become infected. Some scientists have even suggested that Omicron may end up providing a kind of global “superimmunity” against serious illness from future variants. It’s past time to shift focus from trying to stamp out all new infections to protecting the most vulnerable from severe disease directly through vaccination and other evidence-based measures and alleviating hospital staffing shortages. Ending mask mandates, de-emphasizing isolation and encouraging vaccination ought to be a compromise most of us can live with.

Mr. Halperin is an adjunct professor at the Gillings School of Global Public Health at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill and author of “Facing Covid Without Panic.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-is-spreading-resistance-is-futile-m...

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 11:17pm
Stok wrote:
bluediamond wrote:

So fuck, sorry, but you should be hung.

Please, do continue BD, the night is young and the rabbit holes are deep.

Just for context because weak pieces of shit like Stok don't actually address the sum of all parts but feverishly find a snippet to try to hang you on...you don't work for channel 7 do you stok??
bluediamond wrote:
So Novavax got approved. Hadn't seen that. Well that's good!

Because I'm so 'anti vax'
I've been open to the right medication all along. And I've made that clear. I've been sceptical of a medical trial that has left severe life long injuries on its participants, without offering either treatment options, even though proven options are available, or an alternative tried and tested vaccine. The push for the Mrna vaccines MUST be linked to the criminal history and actions of the companied pushing them. Ive posted all the evidence here before. Its been ignored by the pro covid dungeon dwellers. A clear agenda is in place, freedom of information has been withheld, and you lot wonder WHY all the questions confrontation and discontent.
If people choose to b vaccinated good on em. I do applaud their conviction. But to assume you can force that choice from someone based on everything we now know..fuck, sorry, but you should be hung.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 11:19pm
bluediamond wrote:

BTW stok, try telling my friend who's life may never be the same again, it's just one little needle. Just hope this never happens to anyone you are close to.

Heartless scum @stok

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 11:22pm

@stok, quiz time! Who has the largest criminal record in the United Stares?? Hint, its not Ronald McDonald.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 11:46pm
Supafreak wrote:

Omicron Is Spreading. Resistance Is Futile
The good news is that the variant’s mildness makes preventing infection much less of a priority. As the Omicron wave crests, there’s bad news and good news. The bad news is that the main strategies for slowing its spread—repeated testing, masks and vaccine boosters—are largely futile for that purpose. The good news is that while protecting the vulnerable remains vital, slowing the spread of the virus needn’t be the priority. The biggest danger from Omicron is probably acute hospital staffing shortages, in part because of asymptomatic employees who stay home from work after testing positive.

Although Covid testing can be useful, it also has important limitations. The “gold standard” PCR tests are frequently too sensitive; research has shown that in many cases people who test positive are no longer contagious. The increasingly used rapid antigen tests have the opposite problem, often failing to detect infections during the earlier part of the five-day isolation period of presumed contagiousness. This coronavirus, especially the Omicron variant, is so fast-moving that mass testing and contact tracing, and probably even isolation and quarantine, can’t slow it down significantly. The U.K. and other countries, unlike the U.S., already had widespread rapid-testing capacity during their recent surges, yet they experienced the same meteoric rise in cases. As with other interventions such as booster shots, testing is most useful for those at high risk of serious complications, who might benefit from early treatment.

As for masking, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently acknowledged that cloth masks do relatively little to prevent spread. Some experts on coronaviruses, including epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, for nearly two years have questioned the efficacy of masks. A recent rigorous review by his University of Minnesota research group concludes: “We are well past the emergency phase of this pandemic, and it should be well-known by now that wearing cloth face coverings or surgical masks, universal or otherwise, has a very minor role to play. . . . It is time to stop overselling their efficacy and unrealistic expectations about their ability to end the pandemic.” The first large randomized community-level study, published last month in Science, found that while generic surgical masks provided a modest (about 10%) reduction in the risk of infection from Delta, cloth masks didn’t significantly reduce risk. Masks may be even less protective against an extremely contagious variant like Omicron.

That has led to calls for mandatory N95-type masks, which are more effective but harder to use. Some schools have even mandated them for children. Yet two years is a long time for anyone’s face to be covered for many hours a day, and it’s an interminably long time for young children, possibly leading to lasting psycho-social and other harms. Like Delta and earlier variants, Omicron doesn’t seriously threaten the vast majority of children; preliminary evidence suggests much less risk for youth than from Delta. An increasing number of public-health experts, including infectious-disease specialist Monica Gandhi, have called for ending school mask mandates soon. And while vaccines and boosters continue to offer strong protection against serious illness and death—and are therefore vitally important to those at high risk—they’re less effective at preventing infection, especially with the Omicron variant. While a new CDC study finds that boosters substantially reduce risk of infection as well as hospitalization from Omicron, countries like the U.K. and Israel that had widespread booster coverage before Omicron struck have also seen unprecedented surges in cases.

In any case, even if you get a booster now, the current surge probably will have subsided by the time immunity kicks in. It’s possible that future variants will arise against which currently administered boosters would still be useful, although by then immunity may have waned significantly. The European Medicines Agency recently cautioned that repeated boosters may weaken the immune system over time. Which brings us to the good news: Because the new variant is relatively mild and so many people already have some immunity from vaccines, prior infection or both, Omicron’s explosive spread is much less threatening than previous waves. A recent Southern California study looked at more than 50,000 patients infected with the new variant. Not one required mechanical ventilation and only one died, compared with 14 deaths and 11 ventilations out of some 17,000 infected by the Delta variant during the same period. Consistent with evidence from other countries, hospitalizations were considerably lower and average hospital stays much shorter among Omicron than Delta patients.

Although reported numbers of “Covid hospitalizations” are up nationally, these figures include patients admitted for other reasons who incidentally test positive. Based on data from several states and the U.K., it appears that roughly half these admissions likely aren’t caused mainly by the virus. Health and Human Services Department data indicate the total number of patients in U.S hospitals has hardly budged over the past six months. Because the new variant primarily targets the upper airways instead of the lungs, doctors report that few patients are requiring ventilation or even supplemental oxygen. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates in the Lancet that the number of Omicron deaths “seems to be similar in most countries to the level of a bad influenza season in northern hemisphere countries.” In 2017-18, the flu caused some 52,000 deaths in the U.S., probably peaking at more than 1,500 a day.

Public-health authorities are beginning to come to terms with the passing of the Covid emergency. Six experts who advised the Biden transition, including Mr. Osterholm, earlier this month called for a pivot toward accepting Covid as an endemic disease, following the example of several European countries. As Anthony Fauci has acknowledged, “just about everybody” will eventually become infected. Some scientists have even suggested that Omicron may end up providing a kind of global “superimmunity” against serious illness from future variants. It’s past time to shift focus from trying to stamp out all new infections to protecting the most vulnerable from severe disease directly through vaccination and other evidence-based measures and alleviating hospital staffing shortages. Ending mask mandates, de-emphasizing isolation and encouraging vaccination ought to be a compromise most of us can live with.

Mr. Halperin is an adjunct professor at the Gillings School of Global Public Health at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill and author of “Facing Covid Without Panic.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-is-spreading-resistance-is-futile-m...

I'm no expert Supafreak, but this sounds like the effects of a never before seen wave of 7000 million plus humans on this planet. I guess we're just finding out where our tipping point is!! Jab away! Im sure all the answers are in the jab.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 11:51pm

amazing to think there's double the amount of humans on this planet a shy 3000 million to when i was born. But yes, cant see where the problems are arising! Climate change? Diseases. No way. Nothing to see here. Not to mention the fucking suoerbank! Love your work supafresk. Cheers

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 11:51pm

bloody hell.. hope Stus not counting my posts today! I've had a big day!! :-P

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 11:54pm
bluediamond wrote:

@stok, quiz time! Who has the largest criminal record in the United Stares?? Hint, its not Ronald McDonald.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 12:00am
bluediamond wrote:

Just for context because weak pieces of shit like Stok don't actually address the sum of all parts but feverishly find a snippet to try to hang you on...you don't work for channel 7 do you stok??

BD, I can assure you, even if I wanted to I could never, ever address the sum of all parts of what you've been posting tonight. You've taken the cake.

I know it's kind of cliche, but go to sleep early, get some waves tomorrow and stop browsing the Web hunting down answers to back up your own suspicions.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 12:04am

Typical cowardly response Stok. Nothing more than I expected.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 12:11am

Hi. My name is Stok. Im going to google 'largest criminal fine in US history ' just to see what comes up.
I hate people browsing the Web to suit their own suspicions but surely an open question like that cant be hard to answer.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/sep/02/pfizer-drugs-us-crimina...
Ahh shit. How am I going to deny this..

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 12:31am
bluediamond wrote:

Yeah makes sense about people trying to stay away from being close contacts @Stok. Cheers for the feedback from Melbs.

How it started.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 12:31am
bluediamond wrote:

Typical cowardly response Stok. Nothing more than I expected.

How it ended.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 12:50am

@stok. You've avoided every debate that you yourself has put forward. Ive put all my thoughts above. You've avoided all if them. No worries you don't have to, but to cut tiny snippets of any of my posts and not actually debate. I fo think you have nothing of substance to say. Feel free to respond. I am convinced you're a dipshit.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 12:56am
sypkan wrote:

'Wow, so mean.'

well you're the one that waltzes in with paragraphs and paragraphs of abuse, belittlings, and name calling...

largely from a position of ignorance it would seem

from an 'academic' no less

waddle waddle quack...

Fucken ay! +1 to this.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 1:13am

@stok, @toadgimp, @pricktoadkill, i'll remind you exactly why you are all deadshits and not worth respecting. My original post tonight was about a friend who was in very ill health. Her prognosis currently could go either way. While you all belittled me, my beliefs and chose to do all you can to shut down my thoughts, there's one thing you all high and mighty, fighting for the greater good of society and caring so much about everybodies health..forgot to do. To at least acknowledge my friend and wish her the best. You lot are the lowest kind. She needs all the love at the moment to help her along, yet you lot couldn't even acknowledge her existence, let alone wish her well. Very sad.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 5:21am

Bd, a couple of 6 packs later. Alcohol and SN mixed resulted in a whole bunch of stupid posts.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 5:34am

Busy night

gsco's picture
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gsco Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 7:34am
Stok wrote:

Also - @gsco, see what you've done? Don't encourage BD....for all of our sakes.

Just a small deflection of blame there... I'd personally hold myself accountable for arguing with someone all night in an online forum, as though they're actually my actions that I chose to do and was hence responsible for myself.

I think you make some great contributions to the debate but you seem to get offside with a large chunk of people in here by thinking you're smarter and more informed than them, openly presenting yourself as such and as some kind of gatekeeper of wisdom, and openly label and write them off as basically uneducated, uninformed, etc, anti vaxers, with mental problems.

I made the same mistake when I first started contributing whereby I thought I was smarter, more educated and better at debate etc than these people in here and treated them like that, but I was quickly humbled or at least set upon and fairly relentlessly abused until I treated them with more respect and as equal human beings.

I'm not perfect and am in no way repository of knowledge or intelligence, and although I've made some contributions people seemed to like, it's clear that I myself am a little unstable and don't handle the whole covid situation very well personally, wrt to whole greyness of the situation, lockdowns, boosters, child vaccinations, the media, government incompetency, etc... But at least I now treat people in here as equals.

I don't like how people keep trying to convince BD that he has mental problems and needs help. I spent the better part of my late teens and 20s toiling away with shovel in hand on concreting job sites under the hot Aussie sun with a bunch of solid battlers who seem just like him, who wear their hearts on their sleeves, think for themselves and live by their beliefs, and never pack it in or blindly accept authority. Even though I went on to do a masters and PhD, and then work in the finance industry, one thing I've learnt is I'm not in any way smarter or better than those guys I used to slave away with digging holes in the dirt.

Happy Australia Day.

And BD I hope your friend is ok and pulls through.

Alana_a's picture
Alana_a's picture
Alana_a Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 7:36am
gsco wrote:
Stok wrote:

Also - @gsco, see what you've done? Don't encourage BD....for all of our sakes.

Just a small deflection of blame there... I'd personally hold myself accountable for arguing with someone all night in an online forum, as though they're actually my actions that I chose to do and was hence responsible for myself.

I think you make some great contributions to the debate but you seem to get offside with a large chunk of people in here by thinking you're smarter and more informed than them, openly presenting yourself as such and as some kind of gatekeeper of wisdom, and openly label and write them off as basically uneducated, uninformed, etc, anti vaxers, with mental problems.

I made the same mistake when I first started contributing whereby I thought I was smarter, more educated and better at debate etc than these people in here and treated them like that, but I was quickly humbled or at least set upon and fairly relentlessly abused until I treated them with more respect and as equal human beings.

I'm not perfect and am in no way repository of knowledge or intelligence, and although I've made some contributions people seemed to like, it's clear that I myself am a little unstable and don't handle the whole covid situation very well personally, wrt to whole greyness of the situation, lockdowns, boosters, child vaccinations, the media, government incompetency, etc... But at least I now treat people in here as equals.

I don't like how people keep trying to convince BD that he has mental problems and needs help. I spent the better part of my late teens and 20s toiling away with shovel in hand on concreting job sites under the hot Aussie sun with a bunch of solid battlers who seem just like him, who wear their hearts on their sleeves, think for themselves and live by their beliefs, and never pack it in or blindly accept authority. Even though I went on to do a masters and PhD, and then work in the finance industry, one thing I've learnt is I'm not in any way smarter or better than those guys I used to slave away with digging holes in the dirt.

Happy Australia Day.

And BD I hope your friend is ok and pulls through.

What a beautiful , honest post.

Now let the shit show begin

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 8:35am
Alana_a wrote:
gsco wrote:
Stok wrote:

Also - @gsco, see what you've done? Don't encourage BD....for all of our sakes.

Just a small deflection of blame there... I'd personally hold myself accountable for arguing with someone all night in an online forum, as though they're actually my actions that I chose to do and was hence responsible for myself.

I think you make some great contributions to the debate but you seem to get offside with a large chunk of people in here by thinking you're smarter and more informed than them, openly presenting yourself as such and as some kind of gatekeeper of wisdom, and openly label and write them off as basically uneducated, uninformed, etc, anti vaxers, with mental problems.

I made the same mistake when I first started contributing whereby I thought I was smarter, more educated and better at debate etc than these people in here and treated them like that, but I was quickly humbled or at least set upon and fairly relentlessly abused until I treated them with more respect and as equal human beings.

I'm not perfect and am in no way repository of knowledge or intelligence, and although I've made some contributions people seemed to like, it's clear that I myself am a little unstable and don't handle the whole covid situation very well personally, wrt to whole greyness of the situation, lockdowns, boosters, child vaccinations, the media, government incompetency, etc... But at least I now treat people in here as equals.

I don't like how people keep trying to convince BD that he has mental problems and needs help. I spent the better part of my late teens and 20s toiling away with shovel in hand on concreting job sites under the hot Aussie sun with a bunch of solid battlers who seem just like him, who wear their hearts on their sleeves, think for themselves and live by their beliefs, and never pack it in or blindly accept authority. Even though I went on to do a masters and PhD, and then work in the finance industry, one thing I've learnt is I'm not in any way smarter or better than those guys I used to slave away with digging holes in the dirt.

Happy Australia Day.

And BD I hope your friend is ok and pulls through.

What a beautiful , honest post.

Now let the shit show begin

Yep. Was excellent.

Stay strong BD . Whatever your choices. Don’t let the negativity and spite of a couple of these clowns influence your situation. Things are good. Coming up to a good time of year for waves in your location.

old-dog's picture
old-dog's picture
old-dog Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 8:55am

Regardless of what a small fringe cult chooses to believe the history books will show that there was a world wide pandemic which killed millions and thanks to the planets greatest combined effort vaccines were developed which saved millions of lives. The only clowns around here are those who refuse to believe what the rest of the world knows to be true.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:08am

That will be interesting to see: how history records this pandemic.

And whether people change their opinions based on that.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:09am
gsco wrote:

Just a small deflection of blame there... I'd personally hold myself accountable for arguing with someone all night in an online forum, as though they're actually my actions that I chose to do and was hence responsible for myself.

I think you make some great contributions to the debate but you seem to get offside with a large chunk of people in here by thinking you're smarter and more informed than them, openly presenting yourself as such and as some kind of gatekeeper of wisdom, and openly label and write them off as basically uneducated, uninformed, etc, anti vaxers, with mental problems.

I made the same mistake when I first started contributing whereby I thought I was smarter, more educated and better at debate etc than these people in here and treated them like that, but I was quickly humbled or at least set upon and fairly relentlessly abused until I treated them with more respect and as equal human beings.

I'm not perfect and am in no way repository of knowledge or intelligence, and although I've made some contributions people seemed to like, it's clear that I myself am a little unstable and don't handle the whole covid situation very well personally, wrt to whole greyness of the situation, lockdowns, boosters, child vaccinations, the media, government incompetency, etc... But at least I now treat people in here as equals.

I don't like how people keep trying to convince BD that he has mental problems and needs help. I spent the better part of my late teens and 20s toiling away with shovel in hand on concreting job sites under the hot Aussie sun with a bunch of solid battlers who seem just like him, who wear their hearts on their sleeves, think for themselves and live by their beliefs, and never pack it in or blindly accept authority. Even though I went on to do a masters and PhD, and then work in the finance industry, one thing I've learnt is I'm not in any way smarter or better than those guys I used to slave away with digging holes in the dirt.

Happy Australia Day.

And BD I hope your friend is ok and pulls through.

Morning GSCO, hope you enjoy your day off.

You seemingly had some conflicting elitism and intellectualism issues, which it sounds like you worked through. Kudos.

I too learnt a long, long time ago that I'm no different to others, that knowledge, life skills and wisdom transcends professions and education.

I'm no philosopher, but a fundamental, backbone part of general intelligence is understanding the limits of one's own self knowledge - and this is a severely lacking factor in the online, vaccine discussion world (and particularly this forum). The stakes are high with covid, and the importance of getting information from the right places, and not spreading misinformation is at an all time high.

As I'm sure is the case with most people who post here, I don't really care what others think of me. I'm not worried about protecting any reputation - but most of what I say is done with a smile, to get a chuckle out of the other side I'm arguing with. At the end of the day life is short, we're all banging our heads against brick walls here - have a laugh while doing it if you can.

Finally, I'm actually not writing BD off as someone with issues. I'm actually concerned for their well-being, as their posts clearly turned a corner yesterday - hopefully they are just getting fired up and wearing hearts on sleeve stuff. But who really knows.

Stok's picture
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Stok Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:12am
Alana_a wrote:

Now let the shit show begin

Lol.

Doesn't have to be like this though, does it. People could just stop sharing propaganda from grifters.

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Stok Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:17am
freeride76 wrote:

That will be interesting to see: how history records this pandemic.

And whether people change their opinions based on that.

I'd guess it would take a generation or two before people start agreeing on things.

There's certainly been disputes in history over the years, but with the online propaganda and echo chambers (on both sides....), this time will be different for sure.

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Stok Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:24am
old-dog wrote:

Regardless of what a small fringe cult chooses to believe the history books will show that there was a world wide pandemic which killed millions and thanks to the planets greatest combined effort vaccines were developed which saved millions of lives. The only clowns around here are those who refuse to believe what the rest of the world knows to be true.

History books probably won't write too fondly about people who refused to take part in or conspired against the fight against covid too.

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I focus Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:47am
freeride76 wrote:

That will be interesting to see: how history records this pandemic.

And whether people change their opinions based on that.

Wasn't there a lot of shame that came out of the Spanish Flu in the US so not much was written?

And this https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-lonelines...

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burleigh Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:49am
Stok wrote:
old-dog wrote:

Regardless of what a small fringe cult chooses to believe the history books will show that there was a world wide pandemic which killed millions and thanks to the planets greatest combined effort vaccines were developed which saved millions of lives. The only clowns around here are those who refuse to believe what the rest of the world knows to be true.

History books probably won't write too fondly about people who refused to take part in or conspired against the fight against covid too.

There are always 2 stories to history. The white man version and what really happened.

This will be no different.

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gsco Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 10:00am
Stok wrote:
freeride76 wrote:

That will be interesting to see: how history records this pandemic.

And whether people change their opinions based on that.

I'd guess it would take a generation or two before people start agreeing on things.

There's certainly been disputes in history over the years, but with the online propaganda and echo chambers (on both sides....), this time will be different for sure.

I've been thinking about this question a lot lately.

I wonder:
Is history ever recorded accurately, unbiased and factually?

Is there such a thing as an unbiased, impartial, factual and neutral recording of history?

Is it recorded by those in power and with influence, from their perspectives?

Is it ever recorded by "the people" from their perspectives and experiences?

Is it largely recorded by academic, intellectual elites with all their layers upon layers of over-complication, overanalysing, mental gymnastics and theatrics, and within academic conceptual theories and frameworks of history and sociology etc...?

One thing I think is a real possibility is there is a very large number of elite scientists, professionals, academics, politicians, etc, from immunologists to epidemiologists to economists to psychologists to biostatisticians, etc, who didn't agree with the world's, or at least their individual nation's, response to covid. They were vocal and outspoken about it, and were subsequently marginalised and basically lost their careers and "credibility". Cancel culture stuff.

They are very likely not going to let this one go. They'll likely devote the rest of their lives to getting to what they believe is the bottom of this and the truth. A large number of scientists will likely spend decades sifting through all the clinical trial data, experimental design, research reports, etc, of the vaccine companies, and every piece of information governments based their decisions on. They will likely spend decades analysing the real world clinical, medical, economic, etc, data generated in the past two+ years.

This is likely only the beginning of the covid wars. It will likely take a very long time for the dust to settle here.

The vaccine companies had better be very certain they got things right here. A very large chunk of the scientific, political and academic etc community - actually entire nations - has a personal, professional and commercial interest in completely bringing these big corporates down and holding them to account.

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freeride76 Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:56am

"This is likely only the beginning of the covid wars. It will likely take a very long time for the dust to settle here."

Most likely but due to the reasons you mentioned prior to that, I think we will come to some basic, shared understanding of reality.

Or least agree on the rough parameters of it.

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tylerdurden Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:58am
freeride76 wrote:

That will be interesting to see: how history records this pandemic.

And whether people change their opinions based on that.

When its over I suspect excess mortality will be the yardstick.
ie the strategy of a given country will be not just be judged on covid deaths alone

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saltyone Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:59am

I am reminded of an awful time in Australia’s history when an innocent woman was vilified and her life made hell by the majority of the Australian public. She was relentlessly attacked, bullied and mocked for years on end for something she didn’t do. Imprisoned. Her life destroyed. The media had a huge part to play in that. Cashing in on an innocent person and fuelling cruelty and hate. Looking back it’s a dark stain on Australian history . A reminder of what not to be.

https://m.

&feature=emb_logo

https://m.

https://m.

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tylerdurden Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 10:06am

You make some good points gsco.
What's the next move from the government once a large percentage of the population have had their booster?
Keep boosting every 3 months until somehow they've achieved 80% of the population within 3 months of their last dose?
I think that is unachievable.

WA will be an interesting experience.
When do they open?
When will they be maximally vaccinated?
Given that a lot of people are due for their booster now if they leave it too long then those who have had their booster will be past the 3 months.
So when do they open?
They may find themselves ironically in a situation whereby only a very small percentage are within the 3 months of their last dose and therefore, in essence, are an unvaccinated population despite obviously having spent millions on vaccinating everyone.

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burleigh Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 10:21am
tylerdurden wrote:

You make some good points gsco.
What's the next move from the government once a large percentage of the population have had their booster?
Keep boosting every 3 months until somehow they've achieved 80% of the population within 3 months of their last dose?
I think that is unachievable.

WA will be an interesting experience.
When do they open?
When will they be maximally vaccinated?
Given that a lot of people are due for their booster now if they leave it too long then those who have had their booster will be past the 3 months.
So when do they open?
They may find themselves ironically in a situation whereby only a very small percentage are within the 3 months of their last dose and therefore, in essence, are an unvaccinated population despite obviously having spent millions on vaccinating everyone.

Doesn’t it sound fucking mad that this is a genuine conversation. Boosters every three months? For what is most part a mild flu like virus.
Especially a vaccine that was developed for the original wuhan strain which from what I understand I’m not circulating anymore.

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frog Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 10:35am

History will compare covid with the 1918 flu.
1918 Flu:
Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic.

... it was much scarier than covid and with broader impact across age groups and the healthy. No one was safe.

Covid's tendency to affect older and certain vulnerable groups offered the possibility of a more nuanced and targeted response than a 1918 type pandemic required. Protect key groups rather than a one size fits all and lockdown everybody.

Such an approach for covid could have had markedly less undesirable direct and indirect social, economic and health consequences than we have had . The approach adopted was for a host of reasons - more a matter of media fear memes, muddle through reactive management, a desire to keep it simple, a need to cover your ass and avoid "brave" decisions than some conspiracy. The moving target also made it hard as new variants were unpredictable and the virus had many weird systemic health effects on some people. As did the highly nimble virus who managed to sidestep most plans and make a fool of many smart people.

That debate is and will happen in many informal and scientific forms but will probably be drowned out the noise of the decision makers in their desire to avoid blame, pretend we got it right, could not foresee and hide the costs etc.

Maybe some good lessons learned will be agreed upon but that is pretty murky water at the moment.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 10:28am

This is the problem with “health”.

You have a clinically obese doctor giving you medical advise on the NSW health social media page.

https://fb.watch/aMg5tysPdl/

We all knew it was nothing about your health when they kept bottle shops open but closed gyms and locked people inside for 23 hours.

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truebluebasher Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 10:34am

Cross-wired history of shame...continues

Hymie says..."I guess we're not wired the same...."
Octavia replies : "Don't you see, people would point & say...Disgusting! He's [+] & She's [-]"

1967 this [+][-] joke drew giggles from the audience...naturally, coz it's hilarious!
2022 VIP (factcheckerz) ordered the destruction of this [+][-] misinformation fuelling the resistance!

Always was! Always will be...mandated VIP Land.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 10:36am
overthefalls wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Yeah, this is how they promote “health”

If you want a golden gaytime, get one from the shops with no side effects.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CZAjtnUPaEE/?utm_medium=copy_link

Hey Burleigh, what did you think of Washington State’s “Joints for Jabs” initiative last year? I reckon they might have been onto something! There are some studies that suggest CBD might help combat covid. Perhaps, combining conventional Western medicine with traditional herbal medicine is the way foward.

https://www.vice.com/amp/en/article/bvn743/oral-cbd-prevented-covid-19-i...

Don’t know anything about it, but if a natural medicine is given then it sounds promising. Much better than a maccas voucher

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Roadkill Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 10:40am

Octavia, was pretty fucking hot.

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burleigh Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:21am
Craig wrote:

What kicked everyone into gear here in Sydney and Melbourne was Delta starting to take off, no coercion, just being able to finally get some form of protection for it.

No offence Craig but you can’t be the voice of two of Australia’s biggest city’s.

Maybe in your circle of friends. That’s it.

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Craig Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:25am

I'm giving on the ground accounts what transpired down here.

A big proportion were fairly blasé about getting vaccinated until Delta started spreading like wild fire and then it gave everyone a little kick up the but to protect themselves.

Speaking to many, not just a close circle of friends and this was the general feeling and motivation across the city. IE looks like we're going to get it so get vaccinated.