COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
Shorty, it is old mate who owes apologies to a lot of what are now his ex mates, sorry if you misunderstood my post. As for educated himself..... if you say so.
Indo , yes signs were there previously , as with many others who may have been teetering on the edge of sanity in the best of times the whole virus fiasco gave them the kick over into total madness that they really didnt need at all.
Seaslug, not the black car
Vic Local wrote:gromfull wrote:aaron61 wrote:"When people with zero expertise are absolute sure their opinions are right (and the experts are part of some giant cover up) you can put them in the "fools with no doubt" bucket".
gold, i like they way you express yourself
VL you didn't read it, did you?Oh FFS gromfull, what part of my previous comment didn't you understand.
"aaron61. I had a brief look. Sorry, busy day yesterday. It raised some interesting points but lacked academic rigour and footnotes. Not a bad opinion piece, but not much more than that."
Hang on a minute, that last line i didnt write, ( VL you didnt read it, did you? ) is someone hacking these forums, now if i did write something i stand by my actions, always, but that line i did not write, i know my memory can be off at times,
Yeah….what was that about medical apartheid being too strong a term? How about when someone loses their life due to this medical apartheid? Is that oppressed enough for you fucking fools?
February 2020: "Please wash your hands!"
— Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) December 6, 2021
December 2021: 'You will be denied an organ transplant and left to die'. https://t.co/oearUTZt6l
Blowin wrote:Stok - With Australia at 90% vaccination and patients who have tested positive to covid only taking up less than 3% of ICU beds in the countrcan you please explain what a vaccine passport and mandated vaccination is achieving from this point?
Australia is experiencing a case fatality rate ( people dying within 28 days of covid positive test , not necessarily dying from covid ) of about 0.3%. This is similar to influenza. Why are people now being ostracised from society and continuous government control of their movements and the lives being accepted? Why are people excluded from employment when they are not sick, the people around them are protected from getting sick themselves and the sickness is now no more dangerous than influenza?
In 2017 Australia had 1257 influenza deaths . This is more than has died with covid in 2021.
Blowin.
Asking leading questions is not solutions.
Pointing out things which may be hard to understand is not solutions.
Which was my point - the people sitting firmly against what the government are doing are opinionated commentators, and they're becoming good and saying the right things at the right times.
Building up any level of immunity within the community IS the only logical solution to a new, rapidly evolving and moving virus which has knocked the entire world off it's axis. That can either be done by letting it rip or through vaccines.
I don't know everything, in fact, I know very little about this field. But I would assume that the mandates are simply about encouraging as many people as absolutely possible to get vaxxed (simple right?).
Think of it like we're at war, but the enemy hasn't really shown up yet, we had a few waves of attacks, maybe that's all they have to throw at us, but maybe they could send a whole lot more at us in the future. We have no itel. Getting vaxxed is like arming the troops. Sure the current version of the vax may not always be the most effective weapon, maybe a booster is needed - but it's literally all we have which the majority of our leaders have agreed upon endorsing.
To be anti-mandate is effectively campaigning against 'arming the troops' in the scenario above. Sure - choice is good and i don't agree with conscription, but virus's come for everyone, so whether we like it or not our immune systems will be fighting this thing.
So, the idea that why don't we stop at 90% falls apart at this - because why stop at all? Why make it OK to simply refuse to join the fight? Eventually, these mandates will fall away, but it won't be a celebrated occurrence, it will happen quiety, and the 5%, or 3% left will have a reasonable level of societal priviledges (similar to real anti vaxxers who don't vaccinate their kids, and choose to homeschool).
Blowin wrote:Yeah….what was that about medical apartheid being too strong a term? How about when someone loses their life due to this medical apartheid? Is that oppressed enough for you fucking fools?
https://twitter.com/PrisonPlanet/status/1467953562701516805?s=20
or the spot you need in the ICU after your organ transplant is taken by an unvaccinated covid patient ?
This year a very good mate died while wait listed for a heart bypass, poor bugger could hardly walk across the room , died in april while waiting for a spot , the hospital system in WA is already half fucked without being full of selfish time wasters that could have prevented their situation..
Unvaccinated people are more likely to become infected, more likely to become symptomatic and are infectious for longer then the vaccinated. The data on these issues may not be exact but the conclusions are clear. In the circumstances it is completely justifiable to expect those working with vulnerable populations or who work in situations where the risk of transmission is high to become vaccinated. In terms of medical services such as surgery, doctors, nurses and ancillary staff already run high risks of infection. It is therefore entirely reasonable to expect their patients to be vaccionated. Well here we are on Swellchan for another day, one of the internet's hot spots for misinformation, outright bullshit and lies.
Stok wrote:Blowin wrote:Stok - With Australia at 90% vaccination and patients who have tested positive to covid only taking up less than 3% of ICU beds in the countrcan you please explain what a vaccine passport and mandated vaccination is achieving from this point?
Australia is experiencing a case fatality rate ( people dying within 28 days of covid positive test , not necessarily dying from covid ) of about 0.3%. This is similar to influenza. Why are people now being ostracised from society and continuous government control of their movements and the lives being accepted? Why are people excluded from employment when they are not sick, the people around them are protected from getting sick themselves and the sickness is now no more dangerous than influenza?
In 2017 Australia had 1257 influenza deaths . This is more than has died with covid in 2021.
Blowin.
Asking leading questions is not solutions.
Pointing out things which may be hard to understand is not solutions.
Which was my point - the people sitting firmly against what the government are doing are opinionated commentators, and they're becoming good and saying the right things at the right times.Building up any level of immunity within the community IS the only logical solution to a new, rapidly evolving and moving virus which has knocked the entire world off it's axis. That can either be done by letting it rip or through vaccines.
I don't know everything, in fact, I know very little about this field. But I would assume that the mandates are simply about encouraging as many people as absolutely possible to get vaxxed (simple right?).
Think of it like we're at war, but the enemy hasn't really shown up yet, we had a few waves of attacks, maybe that's all they have to throw at us, but maybe they could send a whole lot more at us in the future. We have no itel. Getting vaxxed is like arming the troops. Sure the current version of the vax may not always be the most effective weapon, maybe a booster is needed - but it's literally all we have which the majority of our leaders have agreed upon endorsing.
To be anti-mandate is effectively campaigning against 'arming the troops' in the scenario above. Sure - choice is good and i don't agree with conscription, but virus's come for everyone, so whether we like it or not our immune systems will be fighting this thing.
So, the idea that why don't we stop at 90% falls apart at this - because why stop at all? Why make it OK to simply refuse to join the fight? Eventually, these mandates will fall away, but it won't be a celebrated occurrence, it will happen quiety, and the 5%, or 3% left will have a reasonable level of societal priviledges (similar to real anti vaxxers who don't vaccinate their kids, and choose to homeschool).
If you want to use metaphors related to war, I think vaccine mandates are more like military conscription, taking the right of choice away from the person to choose to fight or not to fight, even though i want as many troops standing beside me, i want then to also have a choice to be there.
"In 2017 Australia had 1257 influenza deaths . This is more than has died with covid in 2021."
The issue though is what those numbers would have been without vaccination and the other measures.
blindboy wrote:"In 2017 Australia had 1257 influenza deaths . This is more than has died with covid in 2021."
The issue though is what those numbers would have been without vaccination and the other measures.
Yeah its not a very good comparison for 2020 even 2021 with little Covid in the community and people not vaccinated, but with a high number of vaccinated people and Covid wider spread in the community, there will be a time when you can make the comparison.
Just like we accept that a number of people die every year from the flue, if we really want to move forward we also have to accept that there will be a number of people who will die of Covid every year.
And generally speaking deaths from flue and Covid will be made up of older people often with other health conditions and very close to the end of their lives anyway.
I wish they would just stop reporting Covid infection numbers and only report deaths and report flue deaths too side by side, that would be a great reality check, probably encourage older people to get a flue jab too.
BTW. I think Singapore might've stopped reporting numbers of infection's, or were planning too.
Supposedly there has been no flu deaths for over a year now and only 36 last year
https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/australia-records-zero-flu-dea...
Department of health report: https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surv...
"Just like we accept that a number of people die every year from the flue"
2016-2020 Total influenza deaths in Australia - 2500
Potential covid deaths without lockdowns etc 60,000 (extrapolated from US data).
If you disagree with that number let's see your estimate.
indo-dreaming wrote:If you want to use metaphors related to war, I think vaccine mandates are more like military conscription, taking the right of choice away from the person to choose to fight or not to fight, even though i want as many troops standing beside me, i want then to also have a choice to be there.
Yeah I'll concede a war metaphor aint ideal. Was trying to highlight though that this is a fight that we'll all eventually join - the only real way out of this is to completely shut yourself out of society. Zero contact. So it's a bit different in that regard.
I agree with you latter post though - reporting numbers has been problematic. I've always seen this as the media lapping up the attention...the clicks...the eyes watching. For a somewhat dying industry, covid has been a powerful jolt from the defibrillator. Reporting the daily covid update has been the lifeline, and reporting the case numbers has been central to it.
It's typical disaster porn though, people naturally click on headlines which have emotive and fear inducing words involved.
Some people fall to the idea that this is a type of control/conspiracy. It's actually much simpler - it's the media desperately getting people to click their articles.
"For a somewhat dying industry, covid has been a powerful jolt from the defibrillator. Reporting the daily covid update has been the lifeline, and reporting the case numbers has been central to it."
Stok, people have gone to the traditional media during the pandemic because they want reliable and timely information during a crisis. Same goes for bushfires. ABC does a remarkable job as the national emergency broadcaster. Even the mainstream commercial media have done a commendable job getting vital information out into the public realm. The best reporting has come from organisations with specialist science and medical reporters and correspondents who abide by long held codes of ethics.
Social media simply doesn't cut it for reporting exposure sites, new case numbers, daily updates etc. It has been the media of choice for conspiracy theorists. You just have to look at some of the absolute bullshit posted here by shortenism et al to know that.
blindboy wrote:"Just like we accept that a number of people die every year from the flue"
2016-2020 Total influenza deaths in Australia - 2500
Potential covid deaths without lockdowns etc 60,000 (extrapolated from US data).
If you disagree with that number let's see your estimate.
I would disagree BB with over a million receiving aged care services in Australia 60K sounds conservative to me.
I focus, luckily we will never know what it could have been, but any reasonable estimate highlights the selfish and toxic nature of a lot of what has been posted here throughout the pandemic. You would think that some of the regulars riding the carousel on their favourite hobby horses would be too embarrassed to continue...but unfortunately that is not how arrogance works.
blindboy wrote:I focus, luckily we will never know what it could have been, but any reasonable estimate highlights the selfish and toxic nature of a lot of what has been posted here throughout the pandemic. You would think that some of the regulars riding the carousel on their favourite hobby horses would be too embarrassed to continue...but unfortunately that is not how arrogance works.
Oh Blindboy, does his best to pull apart anything he doesn't agree with, then pulls a random number out of his ass and keeps running wth it.
Only thing you should be counting is your 3 monthly vaccines coming soon champ. Because, you know..... it works so well.
"Only thing you should be counting is your 3 monthly vaccines coming soon champ. Because, you know..... it works so well."
Yeh I will do that burleigh. That's your first sensible comment! Congratulations!
Here's some real stats from the REAL health issue in Australia.
Heart Disease:
1 in 4 deaths
Costs tax payers 5 Billion each year
118 people everyday die
This is preventable through proper nutrition and exercise, yet we hear nothing from our Government that "care" about your health. Just ad after ad for KFC, Maccas, Beer etc etc
Fuck, look at our Government, basically all fat fucks.
And we all know the one of the biggest risk factors with covid death is obesity.
Wake up VicMoron, Roadkill, Blindboy, your government does not care about your health, they care about business deals. There is no money in healthy people.
They want to inject kids, but dont give a fuck if their parents take them to dinner at maccas everynight, leading to generational curses that will eventually kill them.
So burleigh if you are serious about those issues ypu should support increased funding for education, increased welfare payments (hard to feed the kids properly if you are homeless or working two jobs), universal pre-school funding, increased community health funding etc etc.
blindboy wrote:So burleigh if you are serious about those issues ypu should support increased funding for education, increased welfare payments (hard to feed the kids properly if you are homeless or working two jobs), universal pre-school funding, increased community health funding etc etc.
Are you serious? Our government has just spent billions and billions to keep you injected to keep you "healthy" while letting the number 1 killer slide right by in front of your nose.
We've been ear bashed over and over again about hospital bed shortages all while fat fucks get fatter and sicker. These same fatties that are taking a vaccine and complaining about healthy people that dont. The same fat fucks that are taking up ICU beds with covid even fully jabbed.
Plant foods are some of the cheapest foods around, and guess what? They reverse heart disease (brown rice, beans, fruit and veg)
You have been fooled (again) to think otherwise. Unfortunately they don't taste as nice as a maccas burger filled with chemicals and oil.
Mate you have no idea. In order to enjoy that healthy diet you need a level of education that enables you to understand nutritional information. You also need access to stable accommodation so you have a fridge and cooking facilities, then you need the time to shop and cook. Look at the wages for aged care, child care, delivery drivers etc etc and then plan your budget for paying current rents, feeding and clothing 3 kids, energy bills etc etc. withput holdi g down two jobs. Calling people fat fucks because they are unable to conform to your suggestions only demonstrates how out of touch you are with what is happening in the wider community. On the other hand if I called you an ignorant fuck, I can present the solid evidence of your contributions here.
You sound like one of those smart arse 20 year olds who think they know it all and that the sun will never stop shining out of their arsehole.
blindboy wrote:Mate you have no idea. In order to enjoy that healthy diet you need a level of education that enables you to understand nutritional information. You also need access to stable accommodation so you have a fridge and cooking facilities, then you need the time to shop and cook. Look at the wages for aged care, child care, delivery drivers etc etc and then plan your budget for paying current rents, feeding and clothing 3 kids, energy bills etc etc. withput holdi g down two jobs. Calling people fat fucks because they are unable to conform to your suggestions only demonstrates how out of touch you are with what is happening in the wider community. On the other hand if I called you an ignorant fuck, I can present the solid evidence of your contributions here.
You sound like one of those smart arse 20 year olds who think they know it all and that the sun will never stop shining out of their arsehole.
Just imagine if the government put even a 1/4 of the energy into healthy living (education) instead of Covid Vaccine, jab jab jab, now jab the kids to keep the unhealthy safe.
The attached link has a really interesting graph when you keep in mind that QLD has had bugger Covid. Make of it what you will.
http://www.performance.health.qld.gov.au/Hospital/HistoricalGraphs/99999
dawnperiscope wrote:The attached link has a really interesting graph when you keep in mind that QLD has had bugger Covid. Make of it what you will.
http://www.performance.health.qld.gov.au/Hospital/HistoricalGraphs/99999
Thanks for sharing. You would have to be as dopey as Roadkill, VicMoron & Blindboy to not see whats happening in that first graph.
They have a great habbit of not responding to graphs that dont suit their narrative even when they demand it, so expect the same with this. Nothing to see here......
burleigh is right re obesity in Aus. that problem has been two generations in the making and changing that trend won't happen overnight. We need sugar and fat taxes, education programs, welfare programs, universal access to kids sport etc etc etc.
This of course doesn't mean govt should not vaccinate people and instead concentrate on reducing the obesity crisis. You'd hope they could do both, but Scumo and his mob certainly are work shy, especially when they can't make a few $$$ on the side for their mates.
burleigh, you're starting to sound a lot like those complete frauds Pete Evens and Belle Gibson. I'm starting the think, you might be on the wellness grift too. Maybe own a gym and using the pandemic to increase memberships?
I found Blindboy
Vic Local wrote:burleigh is right re obesity in Aus. that problem has been two generations in the making and changing that trend won't happen overnight. We need sugar and fat taxes, education programs, welfare programs, universal access to kids sport etc etc etc.
This of course doesn't mean govt should not vaccinate people and instead concentrate on reducing the obesity crisis. You'd hope they could do both, but Scumo and his mob certainly are work shy, especially when they can't make a few $$$ on the side for their mates.
burleigh, you're starting to sound a lot like those complete frauds Pete Evens and Belle Gibson. I'm starting the think, you might be on the wellness grift too.
Did we just agree on something? Damn.
Not the Pete Evans or Belle Gibson part
Ha ha thanks burleigh that was a laugh! Sorry to disappoint but I'm still 75kg.
burleigh wrote:I found Blindboy
https://www.instagram.com/p/CXId7muvK4c/
Childish attempt at humour.
No one claims that the vaccines make them healthy, that's just a trope the anti vax crew keep returning to.
Vic Local wrote:"For a somewhat dying industry, covid has been a powerful jolt from the defibrillator. Reporting the daily covid update has been the lifeline, and reporting the case numbers has been central to it."
Stok, people have gone to the traditional media during the pandemic because they want reliable and timely information during a crisis. Same goes for bushfires. ABC does a remarkable job as the national emergency broadcaster. Even the mainstream commercial media have done a commendable job getting vital information out into the public realm. The best reporting has come from organisations with specialist science and medical reporters and correspondents who abide by long held codes of ethics.
Social media simply doesn't cut it for reporting exposure sites, new case numbers, daily updates etc. It has been the media of choice for conspiracy theorists. You just have to look at some of the absolute bullshit posted here by shortenism et al to know that.
I still believe traditional media is by far the most reputable, the commercial channels do have their inherent commercially driven biases, and the ABC does have it's left lean - but you're right, they've been great.
They're not dying out of their own faults necessarily, more so dying because people are looking for entertainment, or re-assurances of their beliefs via social media.
Not sure the ABC has a left leaning bias. They just have a bias against the government of the day which is what good journalism requires.
The LNP have been in power for 19 of the last 25 years and this current mob are corrupt as fuck. Journos attacking this shitty government isn't biased, it's just proper 4th estate journalism. The ABC also stuck it to the ALP during the RGR shitshow, and they were clean as a whistle compared to the pack of crooks running the country today.
Yeah could be wrong there. ABC is my choice of news here in Melbs. Regardless of their political compass they do present two sides to issues quite well.
Plenty of articles were quite critical of Vic Lab's covid response.....which makes it's funny watching the anti MSM crew....who were constantly banging on about how they're all lies and propaganda - there were literally articles shitcanning lockdowns and vax mandates!
burleigh wrote:dawnperiscope wrote:The attached link has a really interesting graph when you keep in mind that QLD has had bugger Covid. Make of it what you will.
http://www.performance.health.qld.gov.au/Hospital/HistoricalGraphs/99999Thanks for sharing. You would have to be as dopey as Roadkill, VicMoron & Blindboy to not see whats happening in that first graph.
They have a great habbit of not responding to graphs that dont suit their narrative even when they demand it, so expect the same with this. Nothing to see here......
The first graph is the one I thought relevant to this chat. I know firsthand of a number of people ending up in ED due to vax but in no way am I suggesting that those numbers are significant to that graph. Would be really interested to learn the breakdown of the issues presented. Something like a 300% increase is going to be a massive legacy issue.
dawnperiscope wrote:burleigh wrote:dawnperiscope wrote:The attached link has a really interesting graph when you keep in mind that QLD has had bugger Covid. Make of it what you will.
http://www.performance.health.qld.gov.au/Hospital/HistoricalGraphs/99999Thanks for sharing. You would have to be as dopey as Roadkill, VicMoron & Blindboy to not see whats happening in that first graph.
They have a great habbit of not responding to graphs that dont suit their narrative even when they demand it, so expect the same with this. Nothing to see here......
The first graph is the one I thought relevant to this chat. I know firsthand of a number of people ending up in ED due to vax but in no way am I suggesting that those numbers are significant to that graph. Would be really interested to learn the breakdown of the issues presented. Something like a 300% increase is going to be a massive legacy issue.
is it due to a change from monthly to quarterly reporting?
Yep it is, note the *
Burleigh again just brushing over the data and not investigating fully to suit his narrative..
blindboy wrote:"Just like we accept that a number of people die every year from the flue"
2016-2020 Total influenza deaths in Australia - 2500
Potential covid deaths without lockdowns etc 60,000 (extrapolated from US data).
If you disagree with that number let's see your estimate.
I don't have an estimate, the numbers will be what they will be.
I cant see how you can use USA figures, seeing the USA vaccination rate is much lower than Australia and the figures you are going off much of that period is from a time period when barely anyone was vaccinated.
EDIT: seems you are talking about the past, I'm talking about the future.
Craig wrote:Burleigh again just brushing over the data and not investigating fully to suit his narrative..
Still hasn't said what he thinks is gonna happen at the next election. The suspense is killing me.
Craig wrote:Burleigh again just brushing over the data and not investigating fully to suit his narrative..
Sorry my mistake. (at least i got the 300% part right :))
A race to the bottom of the rabbit hole with George Christensen:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nationals-condemn-christensen-s-...
Haha forgiven Dawn.
overthefalls wrote:A race to the bottom of the rabbit hole with George Christensen:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nationals-condemn-christensen-s-...
I listened to a bit of the podcast..all the usual stupid words used. Freedom, medical apartheid, nazis, control blah blah blah.
The same words princess snowflake, burleigh, spykan and the other village idiots use in here…it shows they get their facts and words from other village idiots with a greater social media presence. It is just repeating the same old stupid.
Roadkill wrote:The same words princess snowflake, burleigh, spykan and the other village idiots use in here…it shows they get their facts and words from other village idiots with a greater social media presence. It is just repeating the same old stupid.
I usually see the same lame meme/picture shared on various accounts. Kind of embarrassing.
Taking health advice from George Christensen is like taking ethics advice from Peter Foster
Possible evolutionary paths.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03619-8?utm_source=Nature+Bri...
Wow, great link Udo.
Great in so far as it plumbs new depths of bullshit? I mean do we really need to know every new variation of the billion conspiracy theories being pumped out by Trump's stooges? Probably not.
Wasn't very convincing either way, more just a matter of opinion and definitely not dangerous.
blindboy wrote:Great in so far as it plumbs new depths of bullshit? I mean do we really need to know every new variation of the billion conspiracy theories being pumped out by Trump's stooges? Probably not.
I'd say we do need to know about them all.
Conspiracies grow best in the shadows, shining a spotlight on them may save a few people.
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia