COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:31am

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-moderna-ceo-says-vaccines-055048321.html. UPDATE 1-Moderna CEO says vaccines likely less effective against Omicron - FT

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Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:57am

FRANKFURT, Nov 30 (Reuters) - BioNTech and Pfizer's (PFE.N) COVID-19 vaccine will likely offer strong protection against any severe disease from the new Omicron virus variant, BioNTech's Chief Executive told Reuters, as the firm weighs the need to upgrade its commonly used shot. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/biontech-ceo...

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shortenism Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 7:26am

Yep bitterness and anger spews from VLs mouth constantly. but who can blame him. He’s a victim of programmed abuse by the system and we are witnessing the all to often occurrence of the victim radically defending their abuser.

It’s messed up I know. All we can do is be a sounding board i’m afraid.

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Vic Local Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 7:27am

Or you could say, I just don't tolerate fools well, hence my annoyance with you and that pillock burleigh.

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Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:02am
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Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:19am

Far better assessment than that steaming pile of shite unloaded by Monbiate (?) in the Guardian.

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Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:31am

People were talking about the best comparison for Australia’s covid situation. Not Florida.

Try Niger

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/niger/

Similar population size. Dry, warm country with population concentrated in a few urban areas. Virtually no vaccination. Severe nutrient and poor diet amongst population. No covid mitigation such as lockdowns, masks, social distancing.

Perfect parallel with Australia. Niger statistics and case fatalities will no doubt be sky high and display just how necessary our mitigation effects have been….

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Craig Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:39am

Wow, high death rate there Blowin.

259/7,007 = 3.7/100 ie approx 1/30...

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Vic Local Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:40am

Only an idiot would think Niger (rather than NZ) is a sensible Covid comparison for Australia.

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shortenism Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:47am

And the 41 staff are vaccinated..? Are these jabs really offering the freedom we were promised.. Scamwatch!

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john_c Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:50am
shortenism wrote:

Yep bitterness and anger spews from VLs mouth constantly. but who can blame him. He’s a victim of programmed abuse by the system and we are witnessing the all to often occurrence of the victim radically defending their abuser.

It’s messed up I know. All we can do is be a sounding board i’m afraid.

Mate I am guessing the vast majority of people that frequent this site feel frustrated with the delusional anti vaxers on here. Hats to off to VL, Roadkill, etc for calling them out. Not sure why I keep checking this thread out, quite the freak show at times, so it does have some entertainment value. It also provides an insight to the thought processes of the 'special' 5%.

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Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:56am
Craig wrote:

Wow, high death rate there Blowin.

259/7,007 = 3.7/100 ie approx 1/30...

Lol.

What about the overall case and fatality rates? The fact of a high percentage of deaths says a lot more about the Niger health system don’t you think.

Unless you’re inferring that Niger has a particularly deadly strain of covid…..which kills hardly anyone.

259 dead despite zero mitigation.

10 deaths per million people doesn’t sound as scary does it?

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bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:54am
shortenism wrote:

Yep bitterness and anger spews from VLs mouth constantly. but who can blame him. He’s a victim of programmed abuse by the system and we are witnessing the all to often occurrence of the victim radically defending their abuser.

It’s messed up I know. All we can do is be a sounding board i’m afraid.

Not so sure Shortenism. I think in the case of VL it goes much deeper...does this article sound exactly like that poster?
'First, based on the results of psychopathy and sadism, we understand the internet troll as someone who is callous, lacks a sense of personal responsibility and enjoys causing others harm.
The significance of psychopathy in the results also indicates trolls have an empathy deficit, particularly when it comes to their ability to experience and internalise other people’s emotions.
On top of this, the interaction between high sadism and high self-esteem suggests trolls are not trolling because they have low self-worth. In fact, this is quite the opposite. The more someone enjoys hurting others and the better they feel about themselves, the more likely they are to troll.'
https://theconversation.com/new-research-shows-trolls-dont-just-enjoy-hu...
Anyway, enough of my time wasted on that particular matter...just defending myself when someone say's they'll 'keep coming after me', even after repeated attempts to keep a conversation civil and polite....

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Craig Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:57am

I'm just going off the data you linked to Blowin which is the total reported cases/deaths as far as I'm aware?

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Craig Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:59am
Blowin wrote:

10 deaths per million people doesn’t sound as scary does it?

Also your maths is wrong.

3.7 deaths out of 100 = 37,000 out of one million..

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Johknee Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:03am
bluediamond wrote:

Anyway, enough of my time wasted on that particular matter...just defending myself when someone say's they'll 'keep coming after me', even after repeated attempts to keep a conversation civil and polite....

bluediamond wrote:

Angry disturbed individual @ dick(toughguy)vocal.

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freeride76 Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:06am

Niger is a very poor Third World Country, with very limited global people inflows and a mostly subsistence, village culture which would not have much to do with each other.

Wouldn't that be the opposite of a modern country like Aus or state like Florida?

IE, terrible conditions for a virus to spread.

I think the demographics are very young too.

So not at all like Aus or Florida.

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bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:08am

Can't i defend myself against constant vicious attacks from an obvious protaganist. This offends you? Everyone who participates on these forums is aware of this guys continual belittling and anger, never lets the conversation go freely, attacks anyone who challenges his view of the world, and when he comes after me and says 'i'm gonna keep coming after you', you single that one tiny thing out, which if you go back through all my posts before he started attacking me, you'll see i've been nothing but pleasant. You should take a good look at yourself too dipshit.

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Vic Local Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:09am

lucky there's no yellow cards for stupidity eh blowin!!
Mate, give the maths and stats a rest. You'll humiliate yourself a little less often.

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Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:10am
shortenism wrote:

And the 41 staff are vaccinated..? Are these jabs really offering the freedom we were promised.. Scamwatch!

I’m not understanding the living with covid strategy here. These 41 haven’t been confirmed as positve , just possible contact with infected person. I understand they work in a hospital so safety for patients is the concern here but in the Byron hostel episode 84 got locked down and how many have actually given a positive test . This living with covid with such a high vaccination rate is just plain weird. If omicron takes off and is more transmissible then we are all going back into lockdown if these current strategies are enforced.

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Vic Local Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:14am
bluediamond wrote:

Can't i defend myself against constant vicious attacks from an obvious protaganist. This offends you? Everyone who participates on these forums is aware of this guys continual belittling and anger, never lets the conversation go freely, attacks anyone who challenges his view of the world, and when he comes after me and says 'i'm gonna keep coming after you', you single that one tiny thing out, which if you go back through all my posts before he started attacking me, you'll see i've been nothing but pleasant. You should take a good look at yourself too dipshit.

I don't attack anyone who challenges my world view. I just come after idiots who spread racism and covid misinformation because these opinions are dangerous to innocent people. Get use to it champ.

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bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:21am

Unfortunately you hide online, knowing there's no consequences to your insults.
Keep being the tough guy with your gun champ.

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Vic Local Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:25am
bluediamond wrote:

Unfortunately you hide online, knowing there's no consequences to your insults.
Keep being the tough guy with your gun champ.

What are you saying here. Your name is Diamond, Blue Diamond?

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goofyfoot Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:30am

BD airways clear for take off! Announcement is imminent! Safe flight B D!

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Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:50am
Craig wrote:
Blowin wrote:

10 deaths per million people doesn’t sound as scary does it?

Also your maths is wrong.

3.7 deaths out of 100 = 37,000 out of one million..

My maths isn’t wrong. I’ve quoted the Worldometer deaths per million of population statistic. That’s the relevant number in a country which only tests potential fatalities. Who knows how many actually have covid in Niger? Perhaps everyone has had it? All we know is that only 259 have died WITH it.

The point of the exercise was comparison between similar sized populations. Perhaps Niger hasn’t experienced a Covid situation like similar sized Florida because in Niger the virus hasn’t been politicised to the point where people expect to see a tiny orange skinned man with a shoddy comb-over when they observe covid under a microscope?

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freeride76 Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:45am

With respect to the You-Tube clip Blowin posted above.

Here is the essay written by the subject of the clip.

https://unherd.com/2021/11/how-fear-fuels-the-vaccine-wars/

I don't agree with everything the author claims but it's a well written and reasoned piece.

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shortenism Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:52am

John-C, the only reason this thread exists is because of different views and perspectives. So stop your whinging.

If you are asking for a world where everyone is a VL and Roadkill? Have fun with that. You'd already be over the cliff on your 3rd booster shot with no-where to go, wearing a mask at 1.5m apart..

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bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:51am
goofyfoot wrote:

BD airways clear for take off! Announcement is imminent! Safe flight B D!

Haha. Thanks GF. Knew I could rely on you. Don't worry I packed a hanky. :-D

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gsco Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:52am

Blowin I see what you're getting at.

Niger has had 258 deaths with a population of 24m, so about 11 deaths per person in the total population. It's also had 6,989 infections so about 291 per person in the total population. It also has a vaccination rate of 2.1% (lol).

Australia has had about 2000 deaths with a population of about 26m, so about 77 deaths per person in the total population. It's had 210,239 infections so about 8,086 per person in the total population. Vaccination rate is about 77%.

All the data is here: https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/

Interesting comparison given the vastly different covid responses.

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freeride76 Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:56am

"Interesting comparison given the vastly different covid responses"

Yes, but likely not a relevant or meaningful comparison given the vastly different conditions, as outlined above.

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Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 10:00am

You’ve got to put people’s references to covid in context.

If you’re an aging boomer who lives next to a surf break which was basically cordoned off from the general population and no longer needs or wants to heavily socialise, someone who feels personally threatened by the virus and is the recipient of thousands of dollars of government covid hand outs, then you’ll have a differing stance to a young person who’s lost their casual work hours, has had precious partying opportunities canceled with no social or sexual outlet and has little to fear from the virus.

It’s basically privileged old boomers with investment properties who profit from Covid stimulus vs the lower social rungs and younger Australians.

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gsco Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 10:09am
freeride76 wrote:

Yes, but likely not a relevant or meaningful comparison given the vastly different conditions, as outlined above.

Yes, and there is also data definitions, assumptions, collecting, accuracy, reporting, etc, differences between countries.

I highly doubt any of the data is believable, comparable or reliable

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Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 10:14am
freeride76 wrote:

"Interesting comparison given the vastly different covid responses"

Yes, but likely not a relevant or meaningful comparison given the vastly different conditions, as outlined above.

No. I don’t think you’re attempt to overlay unconvincing demographic differences are too convincing. In the population of nearly 25 million people, the residents of Niger are not exclusively isolated pockets of nomads who fail to interact with other humans. There are large population centres full of people who should be vulnerable due to poor nourishment and lack of access to modern medicine. There are millions of people living in urban environments just like Australia only perhaps not as wealthy.

Niger does not necessarily have less global inflows considering it shares porous national borders with neighbouring countries whilst Australia has had closed international borders and quarantine. When it’s recognised that Australia’s Delta outbreak arose from a single unmasked driver who compromised strict quarantine then it’s not hard to appreciate howNiger with no mitigating efforts would see a similar viral spread very easily.

The comparison stands and is relevant.

Niger has had 259 deaths WITH covid despite no vaccines and no virus mitigation. As is the case with many other nations. Why are Western nations and “modern” societies far more likely to endure worse covid outcomes?

It seems very strange to me that rather than assessing why less developed countries fared better with covid, the developed world is hell bent on replicating our destructive and often failing covid measures upon them. Africa has done very well without vaccines but the US, with its double the death rate of any other nation, is proposing that Africa really needs to follow the US lead.

It’s like the fella who came 19th in the local boardriders demanding Kelly Slater follow his coaching advice for surfing heats.

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freeride76 Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 10:04am

V. true Blowin.

For post about Covid impacts depending on circumstances.

I'm still very sceptical about Niger being a meaningful comparison to Aus.

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I focus Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 10:09am

Mean while back at the ranch... WA is very happy keeping you mob out might get another matching McGowan tattoo for the other arm up in Rocko.

"More than nine in 10 residents of Western Australia approve of COVID response, Mapping Social Cohesion Survey finds"

Note 71% of Vic approval rating, clearly = Vic Local right all along, seems the rest of you are, well as Vic would say "fu(kwitts" hysterical evil laughter rings out across the Nullarbor Plain.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-01/scanlon-foundation-social-cohesio...

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freeride76 Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 10:10am

Sounds like the demographics/geography/climate of Niger would be perfect for limiting the spread of Covid.

As of 2018, the population of Niger was 22,442,831[16][17]. Expanding from a population of 3.4 million in 1960, Niger's population has rapidly increased with a current growth rate of 3.3% (7.1 children per mother).[106][107]

This growth rate is one of the highest in the world and is a source of concern for the government and international agencies.[108] The population is predominantly young, with 49.2% under 15 years old and 2.7% over 65 years, and predominantly rural with only 21% living in urban areas.[106]

Mostly young people living rurally in a hot dry country.

Probably not many obese either.

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Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 10:33am
freeride76 wrote:

Sounds like the demographics/geography/climate of Niger would be perfect for limiting the spread of Covid.

As of 2018, the population of Niger was 22,442,831[16][17]. Expanding from a population of 3.4 million in 1960, Niger's population has rapidly increased with a current growth rate of 3.3% (7.1 children per mother).[106][107]

This growth rate is one of the highest in the world and is a source of concern for the government and international agencies.[108] The population is predominantly young, with 49.2% under 15 years old and 2.7% over 65 years, and predominantly rural with only 21% living in urban areas.[106]

Mostly young people living rurally in a hot dry country.

Probably not many obese either.

Irrespective of average age, Niger is still home to a million odd elderly people, the younger people are highly susceptible to I’ll health and the young are known vectors of transmission- that’s why our schools are shut. Also the rate of obesity is surprisingly high in Africa. Niger has about 8% adult obesity.

21% of 25M people is still 5M people living in urban situations. And it’s not like the other 20M are perpetually social distancing. Wilcannia had an outbreak of hundreds despite it being a tiny rural village in a hot, dry desert.

Anyway….none of this is relevant. We are told that covid is a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Age and health is no determinate of susceptibility. Apparently.

Which is it to be? Age or vaccination as defence against the virus?

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seaslug Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 10:29am

I refuse to put on winter tyres because:
This is my car, my choice, my freedom.
The effectiveness of winter tyres isn't proven, unless it's from studies conducted by the manufacturers (you're surprised)
My neighbour Sarah was in an accident after putting her winter tyres on!
Some are already at their 3rd set of tyres, this proves their inefficiency.
It’s madness to put on winter tyres unless you were absolutely sure what they are made of.
Tyre giants scare us with winter just to get rich.
Btw, it was the tyre giants who invented snow and spread it at night when you sleep.
By putting on winter tyres, the government will be able follow you in the snow.
Educate yourself, open your eyes, stop being a sheep!
Say No to winter tyres!

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Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 10:48am

Yeah, sorry mate. What was it you were saying?

I was just lost in thought pondering the sixty years or so where the global health conglomerates were paid to convince humanity that it wasn’t excess sugar and processed food which was bad for you, it was natural animal fats which humans had been consuming for hundreds of thousands years.

And that we should all switch to vegetable oils due to “health” reasons…

I’m sure none of this is relevant during this health emergency. The US has resisted public healthcare as explicit evil for decades, the opioid crisis which killed hundreds of thousands was sanctioned and overseen by the US government, their economy is built on selling toxic substances to the population and the AZ vaccine is not allowed in the US because…..?

But let’s not indulge the conspiracy thinking that the nation primarily driving the covid vaccine narrative is anything but above reproach.

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gsco Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 10:41am

Actually the Niger situation is not so black-and-white.

If you sniff around websites such as https://www.worldometers.info/ and https://worldpopulationreview.com/ and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niger you'll find some interesting facts:

- Niger has a population density of about 19 people per sq km, while Australia's is about 3 or 4.

- about 80% of Niger is covered in desert and about 94% live on about only 35% of the land (similar to Australia)

- the average household size in Niger is about 6 people compared to 2.5 for Australia

- Niger consistently ranks as the very bottom or 2nd bottom country in the United Nations human development index with problems such as "resulting overpopulation, the poor educational level and poverty of its people, lack of infrastructure, poor healthcare, and environmental degradation"

I think one would be forgiven for thinking that out of any country with close to no covid response, if covid was so contagious and deadly then it should have ripped through the Niger population like wildfire and killed a significant amount of people...

The only real mitigating factors I see are average population age, obesity, and possibly covid data is significantly underreported.

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Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 10:40am
bluediamond wrote:

Can't i defend myself against constant vicious attacks from obvious protaganist. This offends you? Everyone who participates on these forums is aware of this guys continual belittling and anger, never lets the conversation go freely, attacks anyone who challenges his view of the world, and when he comes after me and says 'i'm gonna keep coming after you', you single that one tiny thing out, which if you go back through all my posts before he started attacking me, you'll see i've been nothing but pleasant. You should take a good look at yourself too dipshit.

Snowflakebluediamond...plays the victim card. Another who can give it but can't take it.
Poor widdle bd.

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Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 10:58am

Cameroon…..larger population than Australia. 60% urbanisation rate. Vaccination rate 2%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/cameroon/

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freeride76 Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:04am

"The only real mitigating factors I see are average population age, obesity, and possibly covid data is significantly underreported."

That probably accounts for it.

Also, likely much less population movements between villages/cities compared to western countries.

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freeride76 Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:11am

Also sounds like Niger Govt restricted movements.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213398421001056

We've seen in Aus how restricting movements into states that are protected by deserts like SA and WA has meant basically zero Covid transmission.

That may be a factor in Niger?

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Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:16am

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/northern-new-england

I suppose the New Hampshire figures will be claimed as waning vaccination effectiveness and more vaccines are the answer. Despite having a 97% HIGHER vaccination rate than Cameroon.

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sypkan Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:19am

the thing is, it's not just niger..

there's a heap of developing countries with woeful medial systems, abysmal vaccination rates, and pretty much no meaningful restrictions...

they are not getting ravaged by the plague as all the 'evidence' tells us

quite the opposite... life is 'normal'

how?

asking such questions doesn't make one an 'anti-vaxxer'... it makes for a perfectly normal person before the covid tribes came along...

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Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:12am

You have to compare 1st world with first world. Comparing a first world country to a 3rd world country with an uneducated population that belives witch Drs fix disease and illness is just stupid. It probably fits a bias.

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freeride76 Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:14am

I agree Syppo.

But surely we've established now that age and obesity are key factors?

And then certain Second World countries like India and Indo got whacked pretty hard.

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Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:18am
Roadkill wrote:

You have to compare 1st world with first world. Comparing a first world country to a 3rd world country with an uneducated population that belives witch Drs fix disease and illness is just stupid. It probably fits a bias.

Why?

Is it a pandemic of the unvaccinated or a pandemic of the literate? Make up your mind.

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sypkan Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:28am

"I agree Syppo.

But surely we've established now that age and obesity are key factors?

And then certain Second World countries like India and Indo got whacked pretty hard."

yes age and obesity... but it only goes part way to explaining stuff... a very short changed part way...

indo got a bit smashed, but not that badly considering... and now the indo news questions whether the virus has 'disappeared' as it's effects are so minimal now... india, massive overnight turnaround...

I hate to go all shortenism... but meanwhile, we are locking into never ending regime of 'boosters' and ongoing restrictions...