COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

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Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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Mcface Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 12:32pm

My 2cents on two things I keep seeing repeated:

1. regarding weight related health issues - I'm sure if there was a vaccine which reduced risk of hospitalization from heart attack/diabetes etc. we would be taking it. As it stands there isn't and the only way to mitigate your risk is through good diet and exercise - much more difficult to enforce and I don't think anyone here would advocate for strict enforcement of this. Like most however I would still say there is improvement to be done in this space.

2. Many of the anti vaxxers here keep mentioning that those on the other side are living in fear. However from where I sit it seems the antivaxers are irrationally fearful of getting their choice of 3+ possible vaccines available which are all demonstrably safe (compared to the risk of covid), so it seems a bit rich to me that they are the ones crying that we are living in fear. Seems a bit weak to me.

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sypkan Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 12:38pm

and fwiw, I don't really fear it or the 'communism'

but I do fear the mass public gaslighting project that's currently underway...

https://m.

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burleigh Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 12:35pm
Mcface wrote:

My 2cents on two things I keep seeing repeated:

1. regarding weight related health issues - I'm sure if there was a vaccine which reduced risk of hospitalization from heart attack/diabetes etc. we would be taking it. As it stands there isn't and the only way to mitigate your risk is through good diet and exercise - much more difficult to enforce and I don't think anyone here would advocate for strict enforcement of this. Like most however I would still say there is improvement to be done in this space.

2. Many of the anti vaxxers here keep mentioning that those on the other side are living in fear. However from where I sit it seems the antivaxers are irrationally fearful of getting their choice of 3+ possible vaccines available which are all demonstrably safe (compared to the risk of covid), so it seems a bit rich to me that they are the ones crying that we are living in fear. Seems a bit weak to me.

This is the problem, and exactly what is wrong with the fucking world. People would rather take a medication to stop heart disease when all you haver to do is exercise and stop eating shit.

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Ape Anonymous Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 12:42pm

TBB = minority of keyboard warriors recognising #1 Public Health rule: never, ever conduct mass vaccinations during a pandemic. Why? Because it is likely to accelerate viral resistance resulting in #1 Big Problem in Public Health - 'superbugs'.

In the words of TBB, "durr": https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/scientific-blog/the-last-post

Fortunately for everyone, effectiveness of vaccines is waning fast-enough (we hope) that vaxxed will have some resemblance of a broad spectrum immune response when covid superbug hits -now???

Healthy hesitant heathens to become saviours of inherently stupid centralised health care system? Next on the violence channel:

- health care brought to you by Brawndo -it's got electrolytes!

Pay attention, sing along, stay healthy!

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Craig Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 12:38pm

Yep Supa, Lewis Hamilton one of them, would have to be one of the fittest around.

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Roadkill Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 12:48pm
burleigh wrote:
Stok wrote:

There's really two, very polarised sides to this forum, and the wider discussion around covid & associacted vax.

It's either you understand enough about the nature of pandemics, the danger, the urgency, the unknowns and the need to act quickly. When I say enough, I mean enough that a non-subject matter expert should know.

Or, you reject that understanding and you refuse to believe in pandemics. You fall the traps of sub beliefs such as your immune system is fine for everything, that vaccines/mandates are part of some evil plan or potentially that this is the great reset/move to global communism/hell. If you fall in this category, generally you feel that you know more than the people believing in the need to respond to pandemic through a consistent, well led approach. Essentially, you fail to see the extent of your own knowledge limitations, and are blind to your biases regarding what you wish the world would be like (i.e. no pandemics, freedom to do what you want whenever.).

Your immune system is science. Just not the science that generates huge $$$.

Look after it, treat your body the way its meant to be treated, dont abuse it with drugs, shit food and alcohol, then it will look after you.

Not once have i seen anyone on tv telling you to look after your body, put down the KFC and go exercise. Its just jab jab jab.

A patient cured is a customer lost for big pharma.

This is about as fucking stupid as can be.

It's not as easy as eating healthy and exercising.

Plenty of fit healthy people develop various diseases through no fault of their own.

To ignore genetics and predisposition to disease etc etc..is so fucking wrong. You are a real ignorant fuckwit.

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burleigh Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 12:54pm
Roadkill wrote:
burleigh wrote:
Stok wrote:

There's really two, very polarised sides to this forum, and the wider discussion around covid & associacted vax.

It's either you understand enough about the nature of pandemics, the danger, the urgency, the unknowns and the need to act quickly. When I say enough, I mean enough that a non-subject matter expert should know.

Or, you reject that understanding and you refuse to believe in pandemics. You fall the traps of sub beliefs such as your immune system is fine for everything, that vaccines/mandates are part of some evil plan or potentially that this is the great reset/move to global communism/hell. If you fall in this category, generally you feel that you know more than the people believing in the need to respond to pandemic through a consistent, well led approach. Essentially, you fail to see the extent of your own knowledge limitations, and are blind to your biases regarding what you wish the world would be like (i.e. no pandemics, freedom to do what you want whenever.).

Your immune system is science. Just not the science that generates huge $$$.

Look after it, treat your body the way its meant to be treated, dont abuse it with drugs, shit food and alcohol, then it will look after you.

Not once have i seen anyone on tv telling you to look after your body, put down the KFC and go exercise. Its just jab jab jab.

A patient cured is a customer lost for big pharma.

This is about as fucking stupid as can be.

It's not as easy as eating healthy and exercising.

Plenty of fit healthy people develop various diseases through no fault of their own.

To ignore genetics and predisposition to disease etc etc..is so fucking wrong. You are a real ignorant fuckwit.

I would say the real ignorance comes from people like yourself that want to jab healthy children and opening them up to adverse reactions to keep old grumpy people like yourself safe.

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gsco Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 1:17pm

Quite literally The Great Reset is just an initiative of the World Economic Forum to take the opportunity to use the "pause" in our lives due to covid rethink the structure, operation and governance of the global capitalist economy.

I personally warmly welcome the idea.

My understanding is that the conspiracy side of it is that people seem to believe that covid was actually either a hoax fabricated by, or an actual virus created by, people in the World Economic Forum and its partners in order to bring down the global economic system, and some people go so far as to say in order to replace it with communism.

That's well out there.

It's one thing to say that the media, big tech, big pharma, political groups, etc, all just simply took covid as an opportunity to profit and advance their political and commercial agendas and interests, 'as they do' and in the usual way they know how within the global capitalist economy. And the result was the usual sensationalisation, commercialisation and politicisation of covid to the point of significantly upping the confusion, uncertainty, misinformation, unknowns, propaganda, etc, factor.

That's just how the global capitalist system works and it's just what executives are taught in their MBAs from Harvard, Penn Wharton, MIT Sloan, etc: to anticipate global trends and position oneself to profit from them, and while doing so try to influence the trends in one's favour as much as possible.

In that sense covid has put the global capitalist system naked on centre stage for everyone to very clearly see its faults. Addressing these faults is what The Great Reset initiative by the World Economic Forum is all about.

But it's another thing to say that covid was intentionally fabricated or created in order to bring down the global system and replace it with communism. I see no hard evidence of this.

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sypkan Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 1:47pm

I personally warmly welcome the conversation...

but how can we possibly have the conversation, when some are trying to sneak it through the back door denying its very existence?

which has resulted in people like stok and others thinking it's a conspiracy theory indicative of a paranoid imagination...

it's a classic example of, ...a damning example of... there is barely any 'shared reality' of facts anymore... so how can we possibly face the big problems of the future, when we cannot even agree on what is real, facts, and the commensurate problems?

the propaganda media model is broken

and the corresponding big tech. censorship isn't helping anything

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Supafreak Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 2:22pm

Victoria first with mRNA luckily we still have some unvaccinated to do the trials https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/victoria-makes-australias-fi... Meanwhile Professor Petrovsky synthetic protein vaccine gets nothing. Should we be again , be throwing all eggs into one basket ? https://www.shdc.com.au/podcasts/covid-19-vaccines-nikolai-petrovsky/

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H2O Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 2:56pm

Back to the Ballina rally - excerpt from article by George Monbiot - link to follow.
''But much of what we are seeing at the moment is new. A few years ago, dreadlocked hippies spreading QAnon lies and muttering about a conspiracy against Donald Trump would have seemed unthinkable. Today, the old boundaries have broken down, and the most unlikely people have become susceptible to rightwing extremism.

The anti-vaccine movement is a highly effective channel for the penetration of far-right ideas into leftwing countercultures. For several years, anti-vax has straddled the green left and the far right. Trump flirted with it, at one point inviting the anti-vaxxer Robert F Kennedy Jr to chair a “commission on vaccination safety and scientific integrity”.

Anti-vax beliefs overlap strongly with a susceptibility to conspiracy theories. This tendency has been reinforced by Facebook algorithms directing vaccine-hesitant people towards far-right conspiracy groups. Ancient links between “wellness” movements and antisemitic paranoia have in some cases been re-established. The notion of the “sovereign body”, untainted by chemical contamination, has begun to fuse with the fear that a shadowy cabal is trying to deprive us of autonomy.

There’s a temptation to overthink this, and we should never discount the role of sheer bloody idiocy. Some anti-vaxxers are now calling themselves “purebloods”, a term that should send a chill through anyone even vaguely acquainted with 20th-century history. In their defence, however, if they can’t even get Harry Potter right (purebloods is what the bad guys call themselves), we can’t expect them to detect an echo of the Nuremberg laws.

I believe this synthesis of left-alternative and rightwing cultures has been accelerated by despondency, confusion and betrayal. After left-ish political parties fell into line with corporate power, the right seized the language they had abandoned. Steve Bannon and Dominic Cummings brilliantly repurposed the leftwing themes of resisting elite power and regaining control of our lives. Now there has been an almost perfect language swap. Parties that once belonged on the left talk about security and stability while those on the right talk of liberation and revolt."

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sypkan Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 3:30pm

"I believe this synthesis of left-alternative and rightwing cultures has been accelerated by despondency, confusion and betrayal. After left-ish political parties fell into line with corporate power, the right seized the language they had abandoned. Steve Bannon and Dominic Cummings brilliantly repurposed the leftwing themes of resisting elite power and regaining control of our lives. Now there has been an almost perfect language swap. Parties that once belonged on the left talk about security and stability while those on the right talk of liberation and revolt."

yep

but that's what you get with betrayal...

did the leftist elites really think they could walk both sides of the fence when they adopted corporatism?

...well actually... i think they could have... but instead they showed nothing but contempt for the traditional working classes, going 'all in' on their little corporate rainbow alliance...

well how's that working out for ya?

betrayal's a bitch...

when ya eventually reap what you sow

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burleigh Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 4:10pm

26 year old dead after the jab. Please don't mention Lewis Hamiltons long covid again.

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Vic Local Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 4:46pm

Another instagram story from an anti-vaxxer group, and burleigh treats it as a gospel truth.
The story teller even used the letter "v" instead of "vaccine' because she feared her story would be spiked if she used the word "Vaccine". If that's not a red flag for tin foil hat wearers, nothing is.
And of course, they've got the hand out for donations.
It's all getting a little silly burleigh. Time to put on your big boy pants and grow up a bit.

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overthefalls Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 5:01pm

Critical Literacy 101
Module 1: Scrutinising the Credibility & Veracity of Sources
Module 2: Case Studies - Instascam and Fakebook

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overthefalls Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 5:14pm

It seems that even highly educated, intelligent people are susceptible to misinformation. A close family member of mine who vehemently opposes the covid vaccines recently boasted about the advanced research skills he has acquired throughout his academic and professional career. When I asked for an example of one of the sources he has discovered via his advanced research skills, he sent me a link to a Bitchute video! As a non-medical professional, he has also developed the habit of lecturing to doctors in his family, including his own father! The arrogance is breathtaking.

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Roadkill Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 5:42pm
burleigh wrote:

26 year old dead after the jab. Please don't mention Lewis Hamiltons long covid again.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CW4rUEypkAZ/

“I believe my fiancé was a victim of adverse cardiac reaction caused by the ‘v’
The media attention we received was overwhelming and unwelcome.

26year old male, died 17 November.

The comments section say he was a New Zealand. Yet, there is zero info anywhere on NZ media on a 26year old male dying due to covid vaccines. None in Aus either.
So, zero info anywhere on a Rory that died 17 november.

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Roadkill Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 5:44pm
overthefalls's picture
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overthefalls Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 5:45pm

There’s been too much bad news about covid, so here’s some good news: climate change is a hoax! The majority of the world’s scientists are just making us live in fear to perpetuate their academic tenures. If you don’t believe me, just check out some Bitchute videos and some Instagram pages. It’s all there for everybody to see. Don’t believe the mainstream narrative. Wake up, open your eyes and think for yourselves. Does this sound ludicrous?

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Roadkill Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 5:51pm

There is some real dodgy shit.
You tube has multiple Rory Nairn posts with Indians speaking and candles.

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Craig Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 5:59pm

Surprise surprise.

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burleigh Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 6:52pm
Roadkill wrote:

Found this though.

https://ans-wer.com/who-was-rory-nairn-dunedin-nz-plumber-death-cause-an...

This is nothing. Nice try though. this is all covered in the original post. From his partner

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burleigh Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 6:48pm
Roadkill wrote:

There is some real dodgy shit.
You tube has multiple Rory Nairn posts with Indians speaking and candles.

Again. absolutely nothing. keep trying though fool

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burleigh Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 6:51pm
Vic Local wrote:

Another instagram story from an anti-vaxxer group, and burleigh treats it as a gospel truth.
The story teller even used the letter "v" instead of "vaccine' because she feared her story would be spiked if she used the word "Vaccine". If that's not a red flag for tin foil hat wearers, nothing is.
And of course, they've got the hand out for donations.
It's all getting a little silly burleigh. Time to put on your big boy pants and grow up a bit.

Keep trying Vic. There is no link for donations. nice try to discredit though

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Roadkill Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 7:11pm
burleigh wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

There is some real dodgy shit.
You tube has multiple Rory Nairn posts with Indians speaking and candles.

Again. absolutely nothing. keep trying though fool

You would have to be one of the gullible fools they are targeting. Funny stuff.

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Roadkill Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 7:13pm
burleigh wrote:
Vic Local wrote:

Another instagram story from an anti-vaxxer group, and burleigh treats it as a gospel truth.
The story teller even used the letter "v" instead of "vaccine' because she feared her story would be spiked if she used the word "Vaccine". If that's not a red flag for tin foil hat wearers, nothing is.
And of course, they've got the hand out for donations.
It's all getting a little silly burleigh. Time to put on your big boy pants and grow up a bit.

Keep trying Vic. There is no link for donations. nice try to discredit though

The post next to it has a woman with kids…she has a gofund me…no doubt you will be contributing?

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etarip Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 7:36pm

I like it how one of the the anti-vax tactics is to call people out for being ‘scared’ of the virus…

Then post multiple links to stories about vaccine ‘injuries’… presumably to scare people into NOT taking the vaccine.

It’s a pointless game. For every anti-vax story there’s probably 100 sad tales of covid deaths.

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Vic Local Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 7:35pm

Hey burleigh, I got myocarditis after the jab. Had to take a month off work and can't pay the rent. Can you send me your credit card details so I can take a donation out of your account.
Thanks in advance. VL.

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burleigh Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 7:43pm

Boosters every 3 months in the UK now. Because it works so well right?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/29/covid-booster-jabs-to-be-o...

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Vic Local Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 7:49pm

Vaccines do work well burleigh. Very well but you want perfection.
Do you wear seatbelts dopey? They work well in car accidents but they don't guarantee you'll survive all car accidents.

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burleigh Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 8:03pm
Vic Local wrote:

Vaccines do work well burleigh. Very well but you want perfection.
Do you wear seatbelts dopey? They work well in car accidents but they don't guarantee you'll survive all car accidents.

As we discussed a few days ago dopey, The vaccine is like putting sticky tape over your seatbelt. But now you have to replace your stickytape sooner, all while the sticky tape manufacturer is getting very rich and free from any liability when his sticktape fails.

But he knows people are dopey and will keep putting it over the top because channel 7 told them so.

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lostdoggy Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 8:02pm

I had friends in Europe return to Australia after having covid (they were fine) unvaccinated - told to wait 6 months for a vaccine but now aren’t allowed to do anything even if they have antibodies because they’re not allowed to get the vax yet?

This does not compute in my head, what’s the go? I assume they have antibodies from recovering from covid.

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burleigh Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 8:06pm
lostdoggy wrote:

I had friends in Europe return to Australia after having covid (they were fine) unvaccinated - told to wait 6 months for a vaccine but now aren’t allowed to do anything even if they have antibodies because they’re not allowed to get the vax yet?

This does not compute in my head, what’s the go? I assume they have antibodies from recovering from covid.

Because antibodies are not the science that gets people paid. Take your jab people and dont ever question it.

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Supafreak Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 8:08pm
lostdoggy wrote:

I had friends in Europe return to Australia after having covid (they were fine) unvaccinated - told to wait 6 months for a vaccine but now aren’t allowed to do anything even if they have antibodies because they’re not allowed to get the vax yet?

This does not compute in my head, what’s the go? I assume they have antibodies from recovering from covid.

This is part of the shitstorm in the US , covid recovered medical staff that can’t work if unvaccinated. Makes zero sense to me .

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lostdoggy Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 8:09pm

Yeh, I’m pro vax but there’s a lot of complete dumb shit happening.

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burleigh Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 8:12pm

Here is an undercover video of a Pfizer scientist talking about natural antibodies.

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Hiccups Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 8:13pm
burleigh wrote:
Vic Local wrote:

Vaccines do work well burleigh. Very well but you want perfection.
Do you wear seatbelts dopey? They work well in car accidents but they don't guarantee you'll survive all car accidents.

As we discussed a few days ago dopey, The vaccine is like putting sticky tape over your seatbelt. But now you have to replace your stickytape sooner, all while the sticky tape manufacturer is getting very rich and free from any liability when his sticktape fails.

But he knows people are dopey and will keep putting it over the top because channel 7 told them so.

Why does this, and every other one of these turds, assume that everyone who disagrees with then watches channel 7, Kochie, etc? So dull.

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Supafreak Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 8:17pm
lostdoggy wrote:

Yeh, I’m pro vax but there’s a lot of complete dumb shit happening.

My neighbour’s in the same boat , volunteered last year to do one of the last Qantas flights to South America before it all stopped. Got covid, said it was pretty horrible ( not hospitalised )but made full recovery then laid off by Qantas. Went to doctor last month for testing of antibodies and results showed a very strong amount. Now is being penalised on where he can go , doesn’t really want the vax now as what’s the point. He got covid in March or April 2020 .

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Vic Local Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 8:19pm

sticky tape? oh dear.
When it comes to vaccines you either take it or you don't. It is so painfully obvious to everyone except the anti-vax cookers, that taking it is a much better option for you health.
Not only is it a better option for your health, it's a better option for everyone else's health. Being an anti-vaxxer puts other people at risk and that's why there are consequences for idiotic choices.
Anti-vaxxers: stupid, selfish and so arrogant. Burleigh, tell us exactly why you are right and the vast majority of medical experts who specialise in viruses are wrong.

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burleigh Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 8:42pm
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Hiccups Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 8:45pm

...

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Roadkill Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 8:49pm
burleigh wrote:

Fully vaccinated nurse has died of Covid.
https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/emergency-nurse-jill-demp...

Watch the anti vaxers use her death for their bias.

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Vic Local Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 9:01pm

"Fully vaccinated nurse has died of Covid."
Vaccines aren't perfect dickhead.
How many times do I have to explain this to you burleigh?
And there's a good chance she caught covid from some anti-vaxxer flog.
What sort of arsehole uses the tragic death of a nurse, doing the right thing, to promote medical misinformation that is dangerous to people's health.

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burleigh Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 9:32pm

ive posted 2 x deaths today. 1 Vaccine related & 1 Covid related. Both equally tragic & sad.

Yet, the first death you had a completely different tone and tried to discredit.

Why?

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truebluebasher Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 9:34pm

18 of the World's wealthiest & highest vaxed nations 'in a race' to spread Omicron across the Planet
Vax Experts teamed up to impossibly trip over Omicron from half a world away.
Are they all equally the most pathetically stupid Pandemic Scientists of this & next millennium!
Can we now finally tear up their Expert Cornflake Pack Degrees! (Seems that no one cares anymore!)
No one notices the little stuff...Omicron only attacks Rich White High Vax Nations! (Not Important!)

Crew may believe Expert Vax nations raced to collect Omicron samples before Travel Ban hooter!
Note! This is how WHO spread the first lot, even detailing on how to export the virus to Labs!
Imported samples for even faster Covid spreading Vaxes or "Blind" Outbreak Trials for Mass Vax Race!
Experts should be jailed for repeatedly & knowingly spreading more Covid...(Pure Evil!)

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burleigh Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 9:52pm
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Stok Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 9:54pm
H2O wrote:

The anti-vaccine movement is a highly effective channel for the penetration of far-right ideas into leftwing countercultures.

Thanks for that post H2O, very interesting stuff.
To me this is as much fascinating as it is infuriating.
Watching the growth of the far right, and fairly extreme seppo republican identities seep into our political landscape.

On a side note, ant covid vax and pro-freedom has been binge worthy media for me of late. I've actually been browsing it on Instagram quite regularly (more so just out of shock value - as in how stupid can one get?). Checking in with the usual Victorian suspects (the well known ones, the ones who went down the rabbit holes, and the newcomers).

Now my instagram search page is hilarious - full of far right and conspiracy propaganda!

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Vic Local Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 10:26pm

Stok,
anti-vaxxers and the far right are a natural fit.
You're basically looking at a bunch of "victims" looking for an excuse.
The boneheads are just too lazy or too stupid to make something of themselves so they point their fingers at immigrants and say "they are to blame".
The anti-vaxxers / pro freedumb mob are the same. Yes times have been tough with covid, but rather than pivoting, these people have just had a massive tantrum blaming anyone but themselves. They are addicted to "victimhood", and are still demanding their freedumbs, even when life is more or less back to normal. They will find a new thing to sook about when the pandemic bill passes. This pack of arseholes will need another excuse for being shit at life soon.
Probably a bit harsh. Obviously some of the anti-vaxxers have serious mental health issues and hopefully they get professional help.

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bluediamond Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 11:00pm

Angry disturbed individual @ dick(toughguy)vocal.