COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 12:46pm
indo-dreaming wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

It’s pretty much impossible to keep variants in 1 location. Air travel and human movement will always spread.

100%

Before we had a vaccine there was a descent excuse for closing borders and quarantine, but now we have vaccines even if a strain is more resistant, it's going to spread.

The idea that we can keep any strain out of Australia long term is just not realistic and only hurts us trying.

Plus who the hell wants to go through all that crazy shit again, only wankers that do will be supporting the idea for political reasons, so they can hate on the government...they can go get fucked.

I agree, but it seems dumb to not stop flights right now

pig headed, dumb, and non-sensical

a tenporary ban like we did with india seems appropriate

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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 12:48pm
indo-dreaming wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

It’s pretty much impossible to keep variants in 1 location. Air travel and human movement will always spread.

100%

Before we had a vaccine there was a descent excuse for closing borders and quarantine, but now we have vaccines even if a strain is more resistant, it's going to spread.

The idea that we can keep any strain out of Australia long term is just not realistic and only hurts us trying.

Plus who the hell wants to go through all that crazy shit again, only wankers that do will be supporting the idea for political reasons, so they can hate on the government...they can go get fucked.

It is worth keeping new variants out of the country for as long as possible to allow them to get more study, better ICU treatment developed etc etc.
I would prefer not to be the country with the first serious outbreak.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 12:56pm

Temporary ban is okay for a few weeks as work out more, makes sense to just do that like other countries, but they were saying on the radio there is no direct flights to and from SA anyway.

They are announcing restrictions by a press conference in about 5 minutes.

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burleigh Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 12:57pm
Roadkill wrote:
indo-dreaming wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

It’s pretty much impossible to keep variants in 1 location. Air travel and human movement will always spread.

100%

Before we had a vaccine there was a descent excuse for closing borders and quarantine, but now we have vaccines even if a strain is more resistant, it's going to spread.

The idea that we can keep any strain out of Australia long term is just not realistic and only hurts us trying.

Plus who the hell wants to go through all that crazy shit again, only wankers that do will be supporting the idea for political reasons, so they can hate on the government...they can go get fucked.

It is worth keeping new variants out of the country for as long as possible to allow them to get more study, better ICU treatment developed etc etc.
I would prefer not to be the country with the first serious outbreak.

Listen to yourself Roadkill. We literally know nothing about this new variant. Stop living in fear, get outside, breath fresh air and live your life.

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 1:04pm
burleigh wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
indo-dreaming wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

It’s pretty much impossible to keep variants in 1 location. Air travel and human movement will always spread.

100%

Before we had a vaccine there was a descent excuse for closing borders and quarantine, but now we have vaccines even if a strain is more resistant, it's going to spread.

The idea that we can keep any strain out of Australia long term is just not realistic and only hurts us trying.

Plus who the hell wants to go through all that crazy shit again, only wankers that do will be supporting the idea for political reasons, so they can hate on the government...they can go get fucked.

It is worth keeping new variants out of the country for as long as possible to allow them to get more study, better ICU treatment developed etc etc.
I would prefer not to be the country with the first serious outbreak.

Listen to yourself Roadkill. We literally know nothing about this new variant. Stop living in fear, get outside, breath fresh air and live your life.

I have zero fear.

You assume a lot.

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indo-dreaming Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 1:56pm

"COVID live updates: New Omicron variant prompts tightening of Australian quarantine for travellers from South Africa and other countries"
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-27/covid-live-updates-who-omicron-co...

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shortenism Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 2:02pm

Fear is the pandemic

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Supafreak Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 2:58pm
brainiac wrote:

get the popcorn out.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-05/government-buys-merck-covid-antiv...

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/merck-says-covi...

also with suspect side effects.

Be a race now to secure Pfizer’s new pill .

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 2:59pm

Ignorance trumps fear.

Ignorance march today, get out there.

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shortenism Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 3:46pm

bravery trumps fear.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 4:05pm

Trump was brave and 700,000 US citizens are dead now.

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Supafreak Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 4:47pm

In naming the new varient they went from mu to omicron skipping past nu and xi , was there a political reason for skipping xi ? E9-A86743-9-E74-4-C18-9-AFA-0-EA533542-AA9

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gsco Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 5:10pm

Lol, probably didn’t need to though because the Greek pronunciation of Xi is zz-eye but the Mandarin is more like “tshee” (with the tongue behind the bottom teeth)

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 5:35pm

Today's little rally in a small rural town i attended pulled in about 1000. Of note, the majority were clearly elderly. Some really ancient. That came as a big surprise. I would suggest anyone labelling those marching with derision should perhaps get out there to a rally and meet these people themselves. With an open mind. These are ordinary everyday people like you and me who have had enough. Nobody wants to be there on a glorious Saturday morning. People are forcing themselves out if their comfort zones because they know things fundamentally are wrong. Its happening everywhere. Was q powerful experience for such a small community to come together in a place that will make no media headlines.

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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 5:38pm

What rural town was that BD?

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 5:54pm

Prefer not to say locations on here Roady.

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bluediamond Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 6:07pm

Since my last post earlier in the week two more people I know personally have been laid out by job.
Hearing from friends similar stories..

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goofyfoot Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 6:22pm

What does laid out mean? My apprentice had a bad headache the day after getting his Pfizer shot and he went home early and went to bed. Fine the next day.
Is that laid out?

And why is it that it’s only anti-vaxxers that know “heaps” of people who have been affected by the vaccine?

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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 6:36pm

I was laid out and shattered after my Pfizer last Sunday. Went home from work early on Monday and lay on the bed exhausted with a headache. Tuesday felt better but still a bit tired. Wednesday pretty much back to normal..all known side effects and an indication that the jab and your body is doing the right thing.
All good. No need to dramatise it

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 6:44pm

“ No need to dramatise it”

Exactamundo.

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freeride76 Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 6:54pm

I went to the Ballina rally today.

Not on purpose, I had no idea it was on and was on my way to BCF.

thought I'd stop in and make my own judgements on the people there and the "counter-narrative."

Report to follow.

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Vic Local Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 7:04pm

I'm pro vax and know absolutely nobody who has had a bad reaction to the vaccine. "A bit tired" and "a sore arm for the day" is it. This is not a shock given how rare serious side effects are.
Funny how the anti-vaxxers seem to personally know multiple people who have had crippling side effects or died after the jab. And these folk know absolutely nobody who has had Covid. What a coincidence.

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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 7:12pm

Just to clarify, my reaction to my 3rd jab should not be classed as a bad reaction…..it was just a mild reaction.

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AndyM Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 7:23pm

Interested to hear, looked like there was a bit of a turn out.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 7:23pm

Interested to hear, looked like there was a bit of a turn out.

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AndyM Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 7:31pm

Looks largely like a grab bag rent a mob

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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 7:53pm

The signs on display from todays marches show most people attending are stupid.

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bluediamond Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 8:07pm

Didn't seem like stupid people where I was roady. My read was 70% of the crowd were normal enough concerned citizens. There would have been about 30% that came across a little bit too passionate, also a little bit aggressive in their demeanour. It definitely adds an uneasy element to the people there who come along with purely legitimate concerns and I think it drove a few away during. The whole Aussie oi thing and flag waving/eureka flag doesn't sit comfortably with me normally and during a peaceful protest its definitely abrasive. But like I said, alot of elderly. That really surprised me as they've seen alot more in their time than I have.

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Vic Local Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 8:15pm
Roadkill wrote:

The signs on display from todays marches show most people attending are stupid.

The only thing worse than that idiot mob is the right wing grifters trying to outdo each other to win their votes.
If Palmer, Hanson, Katter or one the other lunar right micro-parties can be the preferred fuckwit politician of choice for the anti-everything mob, they are a very good chance of getting a senate seat. Probably not in their own right, but with preference flows from the other nutter parties, they probably would get a quota.
These fuckers are encouraging the mob big time. They are becoming increasingly deranged to match the mob. Speaking at their rallies and pushing covid misinformation on their social media platforms. They don't give a flying fuck about the consequences just as long as they stay on the tax payer funded gravy train.
Only a complete moron can't see how the mobs at the "freedom marches" are the scumbag's useful idiots.

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bluediamond Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 8:18pm

I do tend to agree w u there VL. Very wary of each of them and their underlying motivation.

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seaslug Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 8:31pm

Freedom Marches for firk sake, my 10th Lighthouse Grandfather would be rolling in his grave

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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 9:01pm

Definitely some genuine people in the crowd, BD. It would be wrong to not acknowledge there is some concern. I doubt 70% normal….from what I see at marches 90% are morons.

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bluediamond Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 9:06pm

Hmm, fair enough Roady. Thats what it appeared. Alot of the elderly looked like farmers, hard working folk.
In judgement of morons I guess it depends on your own personal perspective of people. Each to their own on that one. Im pretty sure if you were there today you'd have a different opinion being on the ground amongst it. My personal perspective is they were mostly low key, concerned everyday Australians. The only ones carrying on were the minority.

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Vic Local Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 9:07pm

See Lobster Guy is promising no more lock downs, ever, no matter what if the Victorian Libs are elected in 2022.
What a farcical promise. He is basically promising not to take into account any expert medical advice if elected premier. That, or he's bullshitting and will lockdown Victoria (if the experts recommend it) despite the "no lockdown" promise.
There's a reason why these clowns are so far behind in the polls. Rabble pure and simple.

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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 9:11pm

Well as you won’t tell us where you went, what you say is meaningless stories and probably biased.
At least we can make judgements on the marches that have had publicity.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 9:16pm

Haha ok roadkill. Let's leave it at that then. Ive got nothing more worth adding anyway.

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burleigh Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 9:49pm

Roadkill & Vic up to their typical waffles after 100s of thousands of people again took to the streets against vaccines mandates, arrogant power (money) hungry premiers.
1: You cant deny the crowds
2: You can try and write them off as extremists, however especially Viclocal has a very poor record of extreme views himself and other rubbish (Andy Meddicks daughter prime example) I have attended several protests and i have never seen such an eclectic mix of people all marching as one. Of course you have the odd nut job, thats what will happen when over 100k people come together.
3: I do believe several minor parties will do some serious damage at the next election, and i could not be prouder to be voting for them. We are all equal when it come to voting.

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burleigh Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 9:56pm

How long until we no longer hear about the Delta strain and every headline is Omicron? Remember Alpha, what happened to that? did it die with the flu?

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burleigh Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:03pm

Just another Vaccine injury that you will most likely ignore:
https://au.sports.yahoo.com/everything-i-got-afl-great-paul-dimattina-in...

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burleigh Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:05pm
burleigh wrote:

Just another Vaccine injury that you will most likely ignore:
https://au.sports.yahoo.com/everything-i-got-afl-great-paul-dimattina-in...

Here is an Instagram page dedicated to Injuries which will most likely be deleted soon:
https://www.instagram.com/jab_injuries_australia/

Craig's picture
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Craig Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:08pm

Burleigh.. first article.

"“I had a reaction to the booster jab but I’ve also now got Covid."

So the article isn't about a bad reaction to a booster, he's got COVID as well.

This with an autoimmune disease isn't ideal at all. Wish him all the best.

Craig's picture
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Craig Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:14pm

Also this guy has to be taking the piss.. really! Fuck me dead.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:20pm

All fully vaccianted international arrivals now have to quarantine for 72 hours apparently. haha its already begun

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:22pm

Indigenous flag at Ballina today, as well as signs “My body my choice”, “Fear is the real virus” and “Coercion is not consent”.
And interestingly, the Australian red ensign aka the merchant navy flag.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:24pm

How many where there today burleigh Eleventy gazillion?

etarip's picture
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etarip Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:31pm

Looked at a few photos of protests across a few news sources. They were smaller than what I was expecting to see tbh.

I also don’t know of anyone going to these protests. Not a single person.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:33pm

A young kid got up and spoke today. He got the biggest round of applause. It was a pretty brave effort, only 13. He spoke about being the outsider at school, how he gets bullied, threatened for being 'antivax'.
You crew throwing insults don't realise that stuff starts here. People like etarip saying "shoot em" about protesters (surely worthy of a ban as much as anyone), or vic local, roadkill Goofyfoot and others constantly berating the mental capacity and worth of these fellow humans. It shouldn't matter your opinions, when you attack, berate, humuliate and incite violence or death against fellow humans, you have to understand this is goimg to have consequences on people. Do you people ever stop to consider that your hateful words have consequences and that the weight of them can result in a 13year old kid being ridiculed, bullied and outcast. Pull your heads in.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:35pm
etarip wrote:

Shoot ‘em

Just in case anyone wants to call bullshit on my comments. Really? This is acceptable amongst adults debating.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:47pm

" Pull your heads in."
Oh piss off BD.
People who jump down the anti-vax, anti-lockdown, anti-science, Qanon rabbit hole ruin their lives and the lives of family members. The shitheads who push this rubbish are nothing more than cult leaders.
I actually feel sorry for the 13 year old kid, brainwashed by his or her parents.
I know people who's partner's are conspiracy theorists and they are at their wits end. They have to explain to the kids why mum's saying crazy things. They have to pick up the pieces. Another popular person I know, now has no friends because she keeps posting qanon drivel on social media. People have tried to help but she's turned on all her old friends.
This shit is splitting families apart. You cooked fuckers are an embarrassment, but not harmless embarrassments.