COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

overthefalls's picture
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overthefalls Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 7:14pm

Hey Burleigh, you’re stretching the truth if you think there are loads of medical professionals who agree with you. Sure, there are some, but they’re a minority.

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Fraser G Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 7:17pm
happyppl][quote=Fraser G wrote:

No not from the Mid...surfed it as a grom...Is there any place better for a grom surfwise?Christies stormwater was as dangerous as Wart Berin down at you at Mach 10....

Mate if you know you know...must be showing our age you and me

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burleigh Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 7:37pm
overthefalls wrote:

Hey Burleigh, you’re stretching the truth if you think there are loads of medical professionals who agree with you. Sure, there are some, but they’re a minority.

I stand by my words.

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udo Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 7:55pm
shortenism's picture
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shortenism Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 9:42pm

Shortmemory haha bravo roadkill!

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shortenism Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 9:47pm
burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:06pm
shortenism wrote:

The old ‘definition change’.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-...

All you can do is laugh but the 5 - 11 year old suggestions makes my skin crawl.

They want to injure kids to make adults feel safe. That's fucking sick.

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bonza Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:19pm

for those who have been listening to the experts, not the voices in their head, there never has been a definition change.

March 2020
" In February, independent data scientist Youyang Gu changed the name of his popular COVID-19 forecasting model from ‘Path to Herd Immunity’ to ‘Path to Normality’. He said that reaching a herd-immunity threshold was looking unlikely because of factors such as vaccine hesitancy, the emergence of new variants and the delayed arrival of vaccinations for children...It’s unclear whether vaccines prevent transmission"
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

April 2020
"There are over 175 COVID-19 vaccines in development....But there’s no guarantee that this will happen. Even in the most promising cases, we can’t yet be sure that any vaccine will permanently prevent people from catching COVID-19 and enable ....Vaccines may just reduce the severity of symptoms or provide temporary protection"
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-what-will-happen-if-we-cant-prod...

October 2020
"Most people who get COVID-19 recover, but around 3% of those who have tested positive around the world have died. We do not know what proportion of those who make some sort of recovery will go on to develop long-term side effects (known as long COVID), but it could be up to 10%. Studies of people infected with Sars in the early 2000s show that some of them still had lung problems 15 years later......It looks as though outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will be a fact of life for some time to come.... but “learning to live with the virus” should not mean letting it infect large numbers of people. "
https://theconversation.com/can-we-actually-learn-to-live-with-coronavir...

from the very beginning the epidemiologists and scientific community have made it clear their doubts and expertise on what is required to beat this disease. but hey soros, gates and the reptilians make a better story. the "unknown" is an excellent repellent for the dumb, scared and faithful.

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shortenism Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:27pm

It sure is burleigh! It’s insane.

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Vic Local Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:50pm
burleigh][quote=shortenism wrote:

All you can do is laugh but the 5 - 11 year old suggestions makes my skin crawl.

They want to injure kids to make adults feel safe. That's fucking sick.

Still massively playing down the impact of the virus and massively exaggerating the negative effects of the vaccine. nothing more than Clive Palmer style rubbish.

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truebluebasher Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 3:16am

Gold Standard Experts have a way with words.

20th Sept 2021 : US Prez : "Boosters Rollout begins > Strictly for Vaxerz 8 months after 2nd Dose."

12th Oct 2021 WHO Chief : "Boosters are Immoral & Unfair & Unjust & It has to Stop!"

9th Nov 2021 Pfizer / BioNTech : "We demand 'Emergency Use' override for All Age Boosters...NOW!"

19th Nov 2021 FDA : "Streamlining the eligibility criteria and making Booster Doses available to all individuals 18 years of age and older will also help to Eliminate Confusion about who may receive a booster dose and ensure booster doses are available to all who may need one!"

(Confused! Think that was a message from the Essential Home Vaxer VIP shopping channel).
tbb dug a little deeper ...This is the expert sciency life saving message that the crew were hangin' on...

19th Nov 2021 CDC Sara : "Even if the added immunity given by Boosters doesn't last long, it can help!"

Not to be outdone...

24th Nov 2021 EU Head : "Booster doses should be considered for all adults! Boosters will increase protection against infections caused by waning immunity and could potentially reduce the transmission in the population and prevent additional hospitalisations and deaths.

Finally! Evil Covid & Diabolical Anti Vaxerz get a week off!
Now it's all the poor waning Vaxer'z fault...Copping a real right kicking from EU Police State Bullies!

"Double Warp Speed will boost Doses 1&2 to keep spreading & killing twice as many in half the time!"
Maybe, stamp out the infectious murderous confusing unjust Yule Tide Waning Pandemic.(Is that right?)

In just 2 short months, Vax has halved it's efficacy from 8 to 4 months & queue jumped 3 Phases! [SOS]

Definition of Waning:
A vaccine that infects more than the virus during incubation & then every day onward...just for kicks!
Incubation : No Vax 21.39/10k/day (vs) Pfizer 38.60/10k/day (Way More Infectious) > re: Vax Spikes!
UK kidz Pfizer 1 dose / AZ spray combo is #1 Infectious group on whole Planet + Recalled twice!
(Never did one Govt script > VIP vaxer might bother to isolate?) Cough! None give a shit from day one!

(1) [L] UK Home Study : "As early as week 10 - Vaxerz already spread more Covid than Non Vaxed!"
That's it folks! [VIP Card] must be torn up at 10 weeks or World is promoting 2x Virus & death!

(2) Aug 2021 (Whole Month) Israel Ben Gurion Airport [ PCR Tests ]
[+] 'Rate' was 2x Higher for Vaxed than Unvaxed (Meaning! Waning vaxerz spread more than Delta!)
That's off the charts...100% more infectious than WR Delta unvaxed infections!
(Fact : This Airport count was actually used as the basis for cooking up yer Vax wane Boosters!)
They figured any Vax so fucked up...could do with a boost!

(3) Paper "Waning Immunity after Pfizer Vax in Israel"
(16-39yr) Month 1(52.1/100k/wk) > Month 4 ( 118/100K/wk) Note, youngest wane fastest! (re: UK / EU)
(40-59yr) Month 1(51.2/100k/wk) > Month 5 (117.2/100k/wk)
(60yr+) Month 1(49.1/100k/wk) > Month 5 (105.7/100k/wk)

(4) UK Fully vaxed infections are much higher than UK Fully Vaxed %...(Yes! It's rocket Science...durr!)
Sure! If any care to explain $Gazillion Master Plan of infecting & killing more innocents...all are listening!

(5) 4-5 months (16-44yrs) Vaxerz drop extra 20% to 40% (Alone! At the bottom of who knows where?)
#1 Most infectious are awarded {vip} # 1 Hot Shot Passes to spike Covid Tsunamis as they please!
This is too creepy & murderous that ...well, you all know what had to happen next...

Ask! Why the hell ya think the world is plugging #1 Infectious Hotties with Boosters! Hurry! NOW!

World Rollout has ramped three times the Cases & twice the deaths....& still spreading more & more!

Now the World is gonna picket the White Trash Vax Halls! { Booster Detox Gigs for the Poor }
https://www.vox.com/22759707/covid-19-vaccine-gap-covax-rich-poor-countr...

PS: Vaxed never know when they're infected...bummer for the Whole World!
However! It's also a lifelong death Sentence for the selfish Vaxer...
Vaxerz find out all too late that they've been infected & by then, their Long Covid is too far gone!
BT Vaxer's infections aren't trivial & carry a 53% higher risk of death than former self.
59% Higher risk of at least one long lasting medical condition.
Generally it's Lungs & organs....all this without ever once Testing [+]...mind how you go!
Yes! Yes! Big Pharma promised...promised what? Covid can't hurt you...Much!

tbb is sharing this info primarily to assist safety for Vaxer'z & non vaxerz alike.
Stands to reason that to beat Covid or live longer, we need to share everything about the world of Vax.
Never healthy for Govts to devote 99.9% of time bullying a 5 yr/old hesitant & censoring vital Vax info!

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 5:03am

It’s all about the science!

So please explain why the US doesn’t recognise Astra Zeneca ?

Do they have different science in the Northern Hemisphere?

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 5:19am

No one ever said the vaccines prevent you from catching or transmitting the virus. That’s just voices in your head!

That’s some hardcore literal gaslighting there Bonza. Nice.

“It’s not just in the clinical trials, it’s in real world data” This lady was lying to your face.

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Supafreak Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 6:26am

COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective in protecting against serious illness, but they do not protect against "long COVID" in people who become infected despite vaccination, new data show. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/long-covid-r...

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 6:27am

The Wuflu version of “Don’t mention the war”.

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Roadkill Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 6:33am

Todays irrelevant fixation that no one cares about is obesity and covid…..presented by princess snowflake blowin.

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gsco Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 6:41am

with that scatterplot it looks like we're playing the game of "spot the confounding factor in the data"

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Supafreak Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 6:52am

WHO calls special meeting to discuss new Covid variant found in South Africa with ‘a large number of mutations’. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/25/who-calls-special-meeting-to-discuss-new.... https://fortune.com/2021/09/15/south-africa-covid-mutations-variant-hiv-...

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 6:50am

It says a lot about the blind devotion to prevailing media narrative when the established scientific fact of 80% of severe covid outcomes being amongst the obese and an interesting graph of covid mortality plotted against varying rates of obesity in different countries is greeted by a gormless “ So what? That’s irrelevant.”

Zero desire to improve the situation or consider any possibility beyond that dictated to them by Kochie on Sunrise.

More proof that it’s just as much a cult as it is a health situation.

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 6:51am

“Todays irrelevant fixation that no one cares about is obesity and covid”

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 6:53am

“Todays irrelevant fixation that no one cares about is obesity and covid”

Go get your 89th jab bloke. Then back in your Henny Penny bunker.

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bonza Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 8:30am

"That’s some hardcore literal gaslighting there Bonza"?

You don't remember them saying that? You think those links i provided are bogus?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 8:40am

I’m just proving to you that people were told that vaccines were the magic cure. The CDC was unequivocal about it - the results weren’t just hypothetical but backed by real world data!

It’s been one lie after another by authorities and institutions, this goes far beyond any recalibration of knowledge as study of the situation has progressed. It’s blatant lies. That’s not “ voices in your head” or some other such pleasant accusation, that is a literal accounting of the expert’s provably false statements.

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san Guine Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 8:45am
Roadkill wrote:
burleigh wrote:
overthefalls wrote:

Burleigh, would you be willing to sit down with a medical professional and dispute the first four claims?

There are LOADS of medical professionals that will agree with me. Just not the ones controlled by AHPRA and threatened with deregistration if they do not comply with the government

Psssstt. Naturopaths and Instagram clowns like Pete Evans aren't medical professionals.

Burleigh,
Hahahahahaha loads of medical 'professionals', watch out AHPRA's coming to get them.
Who are these people?

But don't let your fake news, half truth, media manipulated opinion stand in then way of reason .

Watch out the Enlightenment is due soon, the mid 17th century is just around the corner

bonza's picture
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bonza Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 8:46am

Well I guess I was reading it different to you.

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 8:51am

"......that is a literal accounting of the expert’s provably false statements."

And we wait, more in hope than expectation, to see if once, just once, in this endless stream of senseless assertions, evidence will be provided. But that would ruin the fun wouldn't it?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 8:59am

Yeah….The Director of the CDC saying they’ve got real world data showing the vaccines prevent infection and transmission of covid almost 5 months after vaccines began being supplied to the public and many months after the vaccine trials.

She’s lying and there’s video evidence of it directly above.

Once again, no one is left to wonder from where the name Blindboy derived it’s origins.

Here it is again as your myopic exclusion appears to be boundless.

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blindboy Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:07am

"It’s been one lie after another by authorities and institutions, this goes far beyond any recalibration of knowledge as study of the situation has progressed. "

Well no, within a couple of weeks they released data showing they were wrong. So lie after lie? No, one error, made genuinely, as demonstrated by the prompt correction.

https://nypost.com/2021/04/02/cdc-walks-back-claim-that-vaccinated-peopl...

But hey, keep trying and maybe, if you make slightly less hysterical claims, you will be able to back them up.

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Patrick0710 Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:10am

"The Portuguese government has said it is to reintroduce vaccination certificates for public spaces including bars, hotels, restaurants and gyms and once again make face masks compulsory indoors."

Dictator Dan out of CONTROL again!!!!!

Oh, wait ...

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Roadkill Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:11am
Blowin wrote:

I’m just proving to you that people were told that vaccines were the magic cure. The CDC was unequivocal about it - the results weren’t just hypothetical but backed by real world data!

It’s been one lie after another by authorities and institutions, this goes far beyond any recalibration of knowledge as study of the situation has progressed. It’s blatant lies. That’s not “ voices in your head” or some other such pleasant accusation, that is a literal accounting of the expert’s provably false statements.

No one ever said vaccines were the magic cure. Feel free to post evidence to the contrary.?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:12am

“One error, made genuinely”

“ This isn’t just hypocritical, this is backed up by the real world data.”

Months after the vaccine rollout. Months after vaccinated people were known to be catching covid. It was a lie. It wasn’t a miscalculation or miscommunication or misrepresentation. It was a lie.

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overthefalls Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:12am

Rabbit holes are excellent echo chambers.

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:17am
Patrick0710 wrote:

"The Portuguese government has said it is to reintroduce vaccination certificates for public spaces including bars, hotels, restaurants and gyms and once again make face masks compulsory indoors."

Dictator Dan out of CONTROL again!!!!!

Oh, wait ...

Mao couldn’t have been an authoritarian because some other people said Stalin was also an authoritarian!

Dictator Dan personally oversaw the harshest covid restrictions in the world. He also personally oversaw the most covid fatalies of any state in Australia.

His response? Try and self appoint himself the power to unilaterally impose draconian measures at his whim. He wants to imprison people for a couple of years if they go into a shop whilst unvaccinated despite being completely free from covid. He’s a fucking madman and it’s the chicken shit softcocks of Victoria who give him the confidence to throw his wok-eyed weight around like Mussolini.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:25am
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:

I’m just proving to you that people were told that vaccines were the magic cure. The CDC was unequivocal about it - the results weren’t just hypothetical but backed by real world data!

It’s been one lie after another by authorities and institutions, this goes far beyond any recalibration of knowledge as study of the situation has progressed. It’s blatant lies. That’s not “ voices in your head” or some other such pleasant accusation, that is a literal accounting of the expert’s provably false statements.

No one ever said vaccines were the magic cure. Feel free to post evidence to the contrary.?

No one except the Director for the United States Centre for Disease Control in the video above. She made it clear It wasn’t just her making broad assumptions from theory, her provocation was backed up by real world data. She said vaccines prevent transmission , infection and illness by covid.

It’s the pattern- Make the big lie and then slowly pretend it never happened or walk it back when the waters are sufficiently muddied.

Vaccines will save us.
Vaccines prevent infection and illness
Vaccines provide lasting immunity
Double vaccinated catching covid is super rare
Vaccines will never be mandatory
Vaccine passports will never happen
Boosters are only for the immune compromised, they’ll never be made essential for general population ( this one is being walked back as we speak)

Etc etc

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:19am

How come Astra Zeneca isn’t approved by the US government ?

Different science?

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:21am
Blowin wrote:

“Todays irrelevant fixation that no one cares about is obesity and covid”

Go get your 89th jab bloke. Then back in your Henny Penny bunker.

Blowin, does an obese person's life have less value than someone that isn't obese?

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:24am
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:

I’m just proving to you that people were told that vaccines were the magic cure. The CDC was unequivocal about it - the results weren’t just hypothetical but backed by real world data!

It’s been one lie after another by authorities and institutions, this goes far beyond any recalibration of knowledge as study of the situation has progressed. It’s blatant lies. That’s not “ voices in your head” or some other such pleasant accusation, that is a literal accounting of the expert’s provably false statements.

No one ever said vaccines were the magic cure. Feel free to post evidence to the contrary.?

No one except the Director for the United States Centre for Disease Control in the video above. She made it clear It wasn’t just her making broad assumptions from theory, her provocation was backed up by real world data. She said vaccines prevent transmission , infection and illness by covid.

So if no one said it...why do you keep saying it in here then? And using it to suit your pissweak argument...i guess it is because you bring zero facts and just cling to anything you can

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:24am
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:

I’m just proving to you that people were told that vaccines were the magic cure. The CDC was unequivocal about it - the results weren’t just hypothetical but backed by real world data!

It’s been one lie after another by authorities and institutions, this goes far beyond any recalibration of knowledge as study of the situation has progressed. It’s blatant lies. That’s not “ voices in your head” or some other such pleasant accusation, that is a literal accounting of the expert’s provably false statements.

No one ever said vaccines were the magic cure. Feel free to post evidence to the contrary.?

No one except the Director for the United States Centre for Disease Control in the video above. She made it clear It wasn’t just her making broad assumptions from theory, her provocation was backed up by real world data. She said vaccines prevent transmission , infection and illness by covid.

So if no one said it...why do you keep saying it in here then? And using it to suit your pissweak argument...i guess it is because you bring zero facts and just cling to anything you can

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bluediamond Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:27am

Great post above TBB. Thanks for your tireless efforts to pass that on. Legend!

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:30am
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:

“Todays irrelevant fixation that no one cares about is obesity and covid”

Go get your 89th jab bloke. Then back in your Henny Penny bunker.

Blowin, does an obese person's life have less value than someone that isn't obese?

In your ledger it must do.

You’ve plainly said, time and again, that the unvaccinated are selfish people who should be punished because they place an excess burden on the health system and clog up hospital beds. What’s more they brought it on themselves by making themselves more prone to serious covid infection.

The exact same can be said of the obese*. Word for word. You obviously feel the same way about the obese otherwise it proves that you dont give a fuck about the health system or covid or any of it…..you just have an ideological, cultish cunt-streak-a- mile-wide.

Which is it?

*Actually- Covid probably accounts for around 2% of the impact on the public health systems as obesity does. Obesity is much worse.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:31am
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:

I’m just proving to you that people were told that vaccines were the magic cure. The CDC was unequivocal about it - the results weren’t just hypothetical but backed by real world data!

It’s been one lie after another by authorities and institutions, this goes far beyond any recalibration of knowledge as study of the situation has progressed. It’s blatant lies. That’s not “ voices in your head” or some other such pleasant accusation, that is a literal accounting of the expert’s provably false statements.

No one ever said vaccines were the magic cure. Feel free to post evidence to the contrary.?

No one except the Director for the United States Centre for Disease Control in the video above. She made it clear It wasn’t just her making broad assumptions from theory, her provocation was backed up by real world data. She said vaccines prevent transmission , infection and illness by covid.

So if no one said it...why do you keep saying it in here then? And using it to suit your pissweak argument...i guess it is because you bring zero facts and just cling to anything you can

No one….except the CDC director.

All that government hand-out covid money has made you stupid.

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Supafreak Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:46am
blindboy's picture
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blindboy Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:47am

"Months after the vaccine rollout. Months after vaccinated people were known to be catching covid. It was a lie. It wasn’t a miscalculation or miscommunication or misrepresentation. It was a lie."

The usual superficial treatment of a complex issue! You may, or may not, know that the delta variant is much more infectious and has a much greater risk of breakthrough infection than earlier forms of the virus. This was not detected in the US until the 23 February, a few weeks befoe the CDC video you posted. Also vaccinations had only begun in December so by March only a tiny minority of the population had both doses. In the circumstances it is unlikely that the CDC had any clear evidence that breakthrough infections were occurring.

Oh and even if they did, what about the "lie after lie" assertion? Anything to back that up or does it just go into the "ridiculous things Blowin has said" folder? Nah, I'm only kidding. Who could keep up anyway?

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:02am

Here’s a list of (some of ) the lies-

Vaccines will save us.
Vaccines prevent infection and illness
Vaccines provide lasting immunity
Double vaccinated catching covid is super rare
Vaccines will never be mandatory
Vaccine passports will never happen
Boosters are only for the immune compromised, they’ll never be made essential for general population ( this one is being walked back as we speak)

I didn’t bother including the ridiculous, ludicrous and outlandish covid death rate predictions which underwrote the entire global reaction.

Nor did I mention the lies for the first year of the virus that death rates were about 1000 times higher than they actually are, or the fact that for months and months, despite knowing full well it was bullshit, the claim that covid was indiscriminate in who it made severely I’ll. Apparently everyone was just as likely to get really sick as anyone else.

Lies, lies, lies.

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blindboy Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:59am

No mate they are just what you claim has been stated. Provide links to these statements as made by health authorities.

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:03am
blindboy wrote:

No mate they are just what you claim has been stated. Provide links to these statements as made by health authorities.

Oh, do fuck off Blindboy. Everyone on planet Earth was fed this bullshit. You go look it up,

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:03am
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:

“Todays irrelevant fixation that no one cares about is obesity and covid”

Go get your 89th jab bloke. Then back in your Henny Penny bunker.

Blowin, does an obese person's life have less value than someone that isn't obese?

In your ledger it must do.

You’ve plainly said, time and again, that the unvaccinated are selfish people who should be punished because they place an excess burden on the health system and clog up hospital beds. What’s more they brought it on themselves by making themselves more prone to serious covid infection.

The exact same can be said of the obese*. Word for word. You obviously feel the same way about the obese otherwise it proves that you dont give a fuck about the health system or covid or any of it…..you just have an ideological, cultish cunt-streak-a- mile-wide.

Which is it?

*Actually- Covid probably accounts for around 2% of the impact on the public health systems as obesity does. Obesity is much worse.

What? What the actual fuck did you just say? You're becoming more incoherent every day.