House prices

Blowin's picture
Blowin started the topic in Friday, 9 Dec 2016 at 10:27am

House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?

Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.

Cheers

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Tuesday, 28 Sep 2021 at 2:27pm

the guiding philosophy?

"Back in 2016, San Francisco voters approved a measure allowing non-citizens, including undocumented immigrants, to vote in local school board elections. It was a practical step undertaken at a local level in an ongoing project to erase the distinction between citizen and non-citizen driven by an unusual coalition of left activists and economic libertarians. The former proceeded from an ever-expanding commitment to human rights impinging upon territorial sovereignty in pursuit of the evacuation of the category of the nation-state itself at work within certain precincts of academia and the activist NGO-sphere; the latter had at their disposal economic projections that the free movement of labor, once a slogan of the internationalist Left, would yield enormous gains to global economic efficiency supported by and serving the interests of globalized corporations.

Open borders was the place where anarcho-capitalism, traditional Left utopian ("no Gods of Masters") anarchism, and the bureaucratic organs of institutional governance -- where the Koch Brothers, George Soros, the crusty punks of Portland antifa, and the international lawyers -- converged in a common pursuit of a shared end. From each of its component parts, the movement derived a distinctly-valenced claim to stand at the vanguard of moral and material improvement.

The contradictory impetus behind each faction's commitment mattered less than the ensuing output -- the collective pursuit of open borders through a series of incremental advances that would over time drain away the support for the maintenance of the citizen-non-citizen distinction and its replacement by a new moral consensus that it was the role of these movements to conjure into existence in the act of achieving its ends in fact. Papering over the contradictions while conjoining the postively-valenced aspects of the movement would have the polemical benefit of making anyone opposed to their goals at once intellectually benighted, morally backward, and dedicated to economic enfeeblement -- stupid, immoral, and poor..."

https://wesleyyang.substack.com/p/undocumented-citizens-and-the-new

which seems to have trumped the party's initial purpose...

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Tuesday, 28 Sep 2021 at 3:58pm

The Greens wouldn't touch the issue of population reduction in Australia with a 10ft pole.
They wouldn't even think about reducing immigration rates, lest they be thought of as racist.
They've backed themselves into a corner with that one.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Tuesday, 28 Sep 2021 at 4:20pm
AndyM wrote:

The Greens wouldn't touch the issue of population reduction in Australia with a 10ft pole.
They wouldn't even think about reducing immigration rates, lest they be thought of as racist.
They've backed themselves into a corner with that one.

Greens are to ALP what Pauline and Clive are to LNP.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Tuesday, 28 Sep 2021 at 4:30pm

"They've backed themselves into a corner with that one."

yep, ...at what cost?

a bit out of context, but seems...

'you go woke you go broke'

...I'd argue the greens had way more momentum 10 - 20 years ago, before they went all in ip...

seems they have the same problem as labor, isolating their traditional voters for the new industries white collar classes... who is it they are trying to attract? ...to impress? ...to appease?

are they scared this professional class will vote coalition if the greens/labor don't talk up their woke game?

some will perhaps... but I doubt many would...

time for 'the left' to say...

'fuck it, they have no one else to vote for'

like they have done regarding the working class for decades now...

that little ruse held up for ages

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Tuesday, 28 Sep 2021 at 8:02pm

https://www.sustainableaustralia.org.au/policies

there is an Environmental alternative

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Tuesday, 28 Sep 2021 at 9:17pm

That’s why I support them.
And I had Greens members questioning if SA was a racist right wing party.
Also had one confused youth looking to join as he thought it was right wing.
SA is obviously facing a battle with communicating policies and positions, especially after decades of the public being conditioned to accept that unlimited population growth is hegemonic.

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Tuesday, 28 Sep 2021 at 9:44pm

Well, their housing and tax policies are very certainly very sensible.

I've always liked the science parties policies too:

https://www.scienceparty.org.au/

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Optimist Wednesday, 29 Sep 2021 at 5:14am

Just read through the Sustainable Australia party mission statements and they seem pretty impressive….love to see them do well at the next election. They would certainly bring some mindful balance to parliament. The leaders seem quite normal and well educated in the right fields.

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Wednesday, 29 Sep 2021 at 11:06am

I recently mentioned that the Fed will let inflation rise without increasing interest rates to halt it . They have already removed the 3% ceiling and will look for an average rate that takes into consideration times when inflation was below the 2-3% target . They have moved the goal posts .

“But it’s a safe bet that if the accepted inflation target were increased to 4 percent, we’d be hearing little to nothing right now about tapering, normalization, or any other effort to cut price inflation. The Fed would then be more free to keep the easy money spigot open longer without having to hear complaints that the Fed has “lost control” of price inflation. That would be great for stock prices and real estate prices. Ordinary people, on the other hand, might fare less well.”

donweather's picture
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donweather Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 7:41am

https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/property/2021/09/30/macroprudential-h...

In 2015, the average Australian mortgage was $450,000 – it’s now $600,000; the housing-debt-to-income ratio was 80.3 – it’s now a record high 102.1; the ratio of house prices to adult disposable income was then nine times – it’s now 12.

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blindboy Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 8:54am

Nothing new there Don, I watched as the nimby opposition to medium density development by older residents permanently locked their children out of the housing market. The People's Republic of Pittwater was the worst but it happened right across the northern beaches as well as the rest of eastern Sydney and I expect many other places. The final insult was negativie gearing which drove up the price of the limited medium density stock to add a dead lock to any possible entry.

seaslug's picture
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seaslug Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 9:03am

Alan always gives a very clear concise read of what the actual situation is IMO

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 9:09am
blindboy wrote:

Nothing new there Don, I watched as the nimby opposition to medium density development by older residents permanently locked their children out of the housing market. The People's Republic of Pittwater was the worst but it happened right across the northern beaches as well as the rest of eastern Sydney and I expect many other places. The final insult was negativie gearing which drove up the price of the limited medium density stock to add a dead lock to any possible entry.

That sounds like victim blaming to me.

How is it the fault of residents who don’t want their communities turned from a village of pleasant leafy houses into mind numbing apartment buildings? The only impetus for change is coming from the Big Australia mob who refuse to consider an alternative to their mass immigration Ponzi scheme.

There is no need for the destruction of communities without the infinite population growth model.

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 9:12am

Agreed seaslug. He considers the interests of all parties and the realpolitik.

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 1:05pm

And here we were thinking it was all caused by immigration.
Immigration - zero
House prices - through the roof

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sydney-median-house-price-jumps-...

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Westofthelake Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 1:45pm
blindboy wrote:

And here we were thinking it was all caused by immigration.
Immigration - zero
House prices - through the roof

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sydney-median-house-price-jumps-...

"Experts are concerned young buyers who may already be stretching to get a deposit together will be hard-hit by any market intervention limiting borrowers. A 20 per cent deposit on a median Sydney house is now $262,300."

IF I had to save that much for a deposit I would probably, no actually, never own a home.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 1:56pm

Haven't we been through this before wrt expats coming back to Oz?

"tidal wave of expatriate professionals returning home amid COVID-19"

https://www.westpac.com.au/news/making-news/2021/04/very-appealing-expat...

"more than 480,000 Australians ... have returned since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic – close to half the total number of Australians previously living abroad"

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/brain-gain-half-of-australia...

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 2:02pm

Blindboy, you’ve never accepted that house prices were primarily the result of mass immigration despite the multitudes of evidence provided. You have an ideological stance which opposes any reality to the contrary.

Here’s more evidence from Shane Oliver , Head of Investment at the AMP. I’m sure you will ignore the expertise of one of the heads of one of Australia’s biggest mortgage creators which number in the billions of dollars. I’m pretty sure that even a person who teaches an epidemiology unit to year nine students may have to accept the gulf in credibility between themselves and such an expert.

It’s very boring explaining this repeatedly to you and I’ll guarantee you will still refuse to accept this truth which contradicts your mistaken beliefs.

BTW….when he is saying shortage of supply, it’s vested interest speak for excess demand through artificially generated population growth.

So why is housing so expensive?

“There are two main drivers of the surge in Australian home prices relative to incomes over the last two decades. First, the shift from high to low interest rates has boosted borrowing ability and hence buying power. Second, there has been an inadequate supply response to demand. Starting in the mid-2000’s annual population growth surged by around 150,000 people per annum and this was not matched by a commensurate increase in the supply of dwellings resulting in a chronic shortage (see the green line in the next chart). The supply short fall relative to population driven underlying demand is likely the major factor in explaining why Australian housing is expensive compared to many other countries that have low or even lower interest rates. And the concentration of Australians in just a handful of coastal cities has not helped either.

A range of other factors have played a role including negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount for investors, foreign buying and SMSF buying, but they have been relatively minor compared to the chronic undersupply. And investor and foreign demand have not been drivers of the latest surge.“

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 2:25pm

"Blindboy, you’ve never accepted that house prices were primarily the result of mass immigration despite the multitudes of evidence provided."
That's because you are talking absolute bullshit again blowin.
Over the past 30 years, Australian housing prices have increased on average by 7¼ per cent per year,
Source RBA https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2015/sep/3.html
Immigration has caused house prices to increase by 1.1% per annum. See
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338118972_The_Impact_of_Immigra...
Stop talking out your arse blowin. this is just another case of you making up facts to attack immigrants. And some people wonder why you get called a racist.

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 2:33pm

Andy - a big potential impact in the housing market . Most would be well cashed up and looking for a home and maybe a beach house .

You said - "Haven't we been through this before wrt expats coming back to Oz?"

Not to my knowledge especially at this level .

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 2:36pm

"Most would be well cashed up and looking for a home and maybe a beach house ."

Absolutely.

When I said "haven't we been through this before", I meant on Swellnet.
And we have.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 2:46pm

the cognitive dissonance is astounding...

supply... demand... import 200k bodies a year you're importing demand...

ffs, even the abc, ...yes THE ABC!!, ...last night said, viccos health system was already under significant pressure before corona came, ...and the cause...

decades and decades of high immigration!!

coming from the abc!!

different example, same principle...

basic maths kids...

how some can think it's remotely reasonable to make such spurious arguments beggars belief

fuck, even the abc has given up on the ideological denialism...

donweather's picture
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donweather Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 2:46pm
Blowin wrote:

Blindboy, you’ve never accepted that house prices were primarily the result of mass immigration despite the multitudes of evidence provided. You have an ideological stance which opposes any reality to the contrary.

Here’s more evidence from Shane Oliver , Head of Investment at the AMP. I’m sure you will ignore the expertise of one of the heads of one of Australia’s biggest mortgage creators which number in the billions of dollars. I’m pretty sure that even a person who teaches an epidemiology unit to year nine students may have to accept the gulf in credibility between themselves and such an expert.

It’s very boring explaining this repeatedly to you and I’ll guarantee you will still refuse to accept this truth which contradicts your mistaken beliefs.

BTW….when he is saying shortage of supply, it’s vested interest speak for excess demand through artificially generated population growth.

So why is housing so expensive?

“There are two main drivers of the surge in Australian home prices relative to incomes over the last two decades. First, the shift from high to low interest rates has boosted borrowing ability and hence buying power. Second, there has been an inadequate supply response to demand. Starting in the mid-2000’s annual population growth surged by around 150,000 people per annum and this was not matched by a commensurate increase in the supply of dwellings resulting in a chronic shortage (see the green line in the next chart). The supply short fall relative to population driven underlying demand is likely the major factor in explaining why Australian housing is expensive compared to many other countries that have low or even lower interest rates. And the concentration of Australians in just a handful of coastal cities has not helped either.

A range of other factors have played a role including negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount for investors, foreign buying and SMSF buying, but they have been relatively minor compared to the chronic undersupply. And investor and foreign demand have not been drivers of the latest surge.“

Blowin, how does this explain the unprecedented largest ever rises in house prices during the pandemic when immigration was ZERO!!!!

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 3:11pm

"Blowin, how does this explain the unprecedented largest ever rises in house prices during the pandemic when immigration was ZERO!!!!"
According to blowin, the house price rises during the pandemic are being caused by fear of future immigration, not actual immigration.
Ouch, that's some seriously tortured logic right there.
Remember when blowin was telling everyone at the start of the pandemic that house prices were going to fall by 30-50%!!! If he genuinely believed that, he would have put his house on the market and bought it back a year later making a big pile of cash.
So blowin, did you back your argument and sell up? or were you just talking anti-immigrant bullshit?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 3:11pm

Don….a two decades long housing Ponzi built off demand from mass immigration has become culturally and institutionally entrenched in Australia. Housing has sucked investment and energy from every other point of the economy. Houses and holes! There is entire generations of Australians who are now looking for real estate who have never known anything but the mass immigration Ponzi scheme housing bubble. They don’t see any other option to invest because there isn’t any other option to invest.

Come Covid and the government turnoff the immigration firehose, the only option was tens ( hundreds!) of billions of dollars of stimulus which only had one place to go….housing. They also oversaw $30B dollar worth of Superannuation extraction which went to housing and the Home builder scheme which was another billions injection into the housing market.

Immigrant debt wasn’t needed as long as the government could keep the stimulus spigot open to fuel the housing bubble. Now the government is desperately trying to get up vaccinations so they can justify reloading the mass immigration cannon before the stimulus impetus expires.

Couple that with the free money style interest rates and the juggled balls remain in the air till the highly skilled food service delivery drivers are returning by the plane load.

That’s what happened, Don. Surely you can get your head around that?

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 3:20pm
Blowin wrote:

Don….a two decades long housing Ponzi built off demand from mass immigration has become culturally and institutionally entrenched in Australia. Housing has sucked investment and energy from every other point of the economy. Houses and holes! There is entire generations of Australians who are now looking for real estate who have never known anything but the mass immigration Ponzi scheme housing bubble. They don’t see any other option to invest because there isn’t any other option to invest.

Come Covid and the government turnoff the immigration firehose, the only option was tens ( hundreds!) of billions of dollars of stimulus which only had one place to go….housing. They also oversaw $30B dollar worth of Superannuation extraction which went to housing and the Home builder scheme which was another billions injection into the housing market.

Immigrant debt wasn’t needed as long as the government could keep the stimulus spigot open to fuel the housing bubble. Now the government is desperately trying to get up vaccinations so they can justify reloading the mass immigration cannon before the stimulus impetus expires.

Couple that with the free money style interest rates and the juggled balls remain in the air till the highly skilled food service delivery drivers are returning by the plane load.

That’s what happened, Don. Surely you can get your head around that?

Haaaaaaaaaaaaaa Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.
Have you heard of the stock market champ?

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 3:22pm

You can't live in the stock market Vic.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 3:33pm

True zen but you can invest your disposables in the stock market if you already have a house. The thing is, the federal government tax concessions make it so damn easy to buy your third fourth and fifth houses.
I could literally go to a new estate and pay $50K more for an entry level home than a first home buyer, knowing I could rent the place out and negatively gear the loss. I could even rent it out to the poor sod I just outbid.
But hey, let's blame the immigrants eh.
The funny thing is, blowin bangs on about housing prices so much, he actually mentions the multiple factors driving up house prices, but his hatred of immigrants always leads him back to stupid statements like "...that house prices were primarily the result of mass immigration".
If this was even remotely true, house prices would have collapsed during covid. They didn't because blowin is an anti-immigration bullshitter.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 3:46pm

“ Blowin, how does this explain the unprecedented largest ever rises in house prices during the pandemic when immigration was ZERO!!!!”

Don’t reckon it was Don.

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sypkan Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 3:53pm

donweather seems to have missed this...

""tidal wave of expatriate professionals returning home amid COVID-19"

https://www.westpac.com.au/news/making-news/2021/04/very-appealing-expat...

"more than 480,000 Australians ... have returned since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic – close to half the total number of Australians previously living abroad"

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/brain-gain-half-of-australia...

and vicvocal and others...

again...

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 3:54pm

"Don’t reckon it was Don."
You can reckon whatever you like AndyM but it doesn't change the fact immigration to Australia has plummeted during the pandemic
https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/population-change-2020

bonza's picture
bonza's picture
bonza Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 3:54pm

your hatred of blowin is clouding your judgement on this vic. i am sure (could be wrong) i even saw a post from you recently where even you said the word 'contributing' in regards to immigration on house prices. i only remember it cause you said it.

its a significant contributing factor. no way around it. everyone knows it. and it not racist to say it. even if some may use it to be racist (not directed to blowin).

take blowin and the racist card out of the equation and argue the merits of immigration as a co-contributing factor on house prices in australia.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 3:56pm

"If this was even remotely true, house prices would have collapsed during covid. They didn't because blowin is an anti-immigration bullshitter."

480,000 !!!!!!

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 3:57pm

only one bullshitter here

(more than one actually...)

but it ain't blowin

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 3:59pm

480,000

!!!!!

garyg1412's picture
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garyg1412 Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 4:01pm

I don't know about the big cities but in the smaller urban areas like ours it's not government stimulus or early superannuation driving the housing market. It's wealthy people mainly from out of area paying whatever they want for real estate because they can. I might be wrong but in small communities word gets around about what properties get sold, how they get sold and who buys them. Any person in our area in the current market trying to get a mortgage for grossly over priced properties has two problems:
1) The bank valuation will be nowhere near what the asking price is, and
2) Any offers subject to finance are simply trumped by cash buyers in most instances.
So the only mass migration currently are the Boomers and rich city rats and they are having a huge effect on local communities I think.
The next industry to boom in these areas will be the renovation industry . All these new home owners won't be happy with the shit boxes they've just paid three times the going price for, and will want their stone tops and frameless showers installed quick smart and at any price.

carpetman's picture
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carpetman Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 4:05pm

480,000 returning but plenty leaving as well.

We've checked this before.

I think if you look at Victoria where we are 40,000+ fewer residents than pre-pandemic levels, not to mention the significant loss of temp residents, it's fairly obvious immigration isn't driving house prices currently.

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carpetman Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 4:09pm

Regardless, I'm all for reduced immigration levels and would like to see an Australia with a population similar to what I grew up with (sub 20mil).
But blaming house prices on immigration when it clearly isn't the driver doesn't really help find a suitable solution to the problem.

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Blowin Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 4:20pm

Gary….There is a net loss of population in the cities as a result of the Covid inspired exodus. The city folk who are paying the top dollar in the regions are either selling to those who’ve got stimulus/ super / equity money to spend or they’re using their own city home equity as collateral.

Without the stimulus from the various sources I referenced above , city house prices would be dropping considerably and the top dollar in the regions knock on effect would disappear. It’s all related to the massive injection of funds the government used to temporarily plug up the hole left by the absence of an extra 250K person demand every year. Actually it was hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions more people than that once you factor in the temporary workers and international students who all pay rent and service investor mortgages.

The head of AMP investments described exactly how immigration is primarily responsible in the above link i posted. Some people behave as though the expert knowledge he imparted is somehow trumped by their petty opinions. I blame the modern tendency to ignore expert opinion in favour of superstition. Superstition and ad hominem.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 4:25pm

bonza, I never said immigration doesn't contribute to house price increases.
It does, but there are multiple other factors that are causing house prices to go through the roof. I will list a few for you, roughly in order of significance.
1. Negative gearing
2 Low interest rates
3. Capital gains tax concessions
4. The shit load of covid cash sloshing around in the system looking for a place to invest.
5. the size and quality of houses being built (everyone wants a media room eh)
6. Loose lending regulations
7. Cash grants and Incentives to building and or renovate
8. Boomers dying and their kids spending the inheritance upgrading their houses.
I just get the shits when you have a bloke who wanted to round up South Koreans for immediate deportation saying immigrants are the primary cause of house price rises in Australia.
It's simply not true. Given the studies I linked, net migration (pre covid) was responsible for 15% of price rises. Since covid migration has stopped and the prices of houses has gone through the roof.
Like I said, blowin is just flat out wrong and his judgement is clouded by his rancid anti-immigrant agenda.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 4:34pm

40 000 leaving from one of the biggest states...

significantly less leaving elsewhere... times that by the states is still way less than 480 000!!

but yes I agree, it's not the main driver atm, however, it more than compensates for spurious missing migrant arguments above, considerably...

cheap money, city flight (or corona second home / country back up / holiday house...), some high end migration (big dollars!), money pulled from stock market from initial corona shock, locked in ozzies and changing priorities, big end of town predatory buying, billionaire havenists, government propping it up... yet again... the list of current contributing factors is endless...

480 000 ozzie homecomers more than cancelled out any losses of demand from lost immigration.... to say one year of no immigrants and house prices still rising somehow proves the last 30 years didn't happen... is just all kinds of ridiculous...

especially when various (compromised) media commentator deniers are now more than willing to accept its been a major factor

yet some will argue...

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 4:29pm

Here’s an analogy:

The housing Ponzi is a fire which has burnt red hot for almost two decades using the coal of mass immigration as fuel. The mass immigration fuel supply has been temporarily cut off but the fire has that much residual heat and coals that when the government threw on the huge piles of dry kindling which was stimulus, we witnessed a massive surge in flames. Unfortunately for the government, the flames from the kindling are short lived and don’t generate any sustained heat, so the government is doing everything it can to get its hands on more coal ASAP.

If there is another hold up in the coal ( highly skilled food delivery technologists ) then the government will have to come up with another temporary stop gap to shore up the bubble. But….the Australian population is already saturated with debt. There is only so many people who can take on a million dollars in debt within our population, so the government’s only option is highly skilled food service delivery technicians who can take out their own debt or pay rent on the debt assumed by savvy real estate investors.

It’s a Ponzi…..without more people buying the widget at a higher price off those who bought the widget previously the whole thing falls apart.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 4:38pm

"The head of AMP investments described exactly how immigration is primarily responsible in the above link i posted."
haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.
What link you utter clown?
You just cherry picked a paragraph from a long article.
There's a reason you didn't actually provide a link. It doesn't support your argument at all. Sure you can grab a sentence from it, but anyone can read it and judge your bullshit for themselves.
Here's the full article.
https://www.ampcapital.com/au/en/insights-hub/articles/2021/september/wh...
Did you even read the whole article blowin or did you just copy and paste the quote from some other source? I'm tipping it's the latter.
BTW, I do find it hilarious that the bloke who told everyone that house prices would collapse 30-50% due to no immigration, still has the gall to lecture us about house prices. Farking embarrassing.

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garyg1412 Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 4:37pm

Blowin the only stimulus the government offered as far as I know for non first home buyers was a $25k donation if you spent over $170k. The only thing that stimulated was wealthy people got to replace their kitchens and bathrooms in their mansions. The reason I know this is because over the past 12 months the only people who have come through our door are those particular people. For a chump like me or you we would spend at least $15k of that $25k handout on consultant and council fees so it wasn't an incentive for us average money earners at all. As for the super once again the amount you were allowed to take out probably wouldn't get you half a bathroom reno. And finally the equity these people have found in their homes is driving BMW sales up around the country, not real estate sales.
Cash is king as they say and I think it's being realised in the current real estate market.
Anyway I'm not a fiscal expert I'm just relating what I see and hear in my local community. Cheers.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 4:37pm

Even though Immigration hasn't been a factor in the latest house price increase

It definitely a factor in normal times, if you add more people you need to house them somewhere either rentals or bought homes.

But that said its possibly not as big factor as you might expect as a lot of people also depart the country long term, here is a good visual of immigration rates, but also shows departures

And accompanying text

"Migration to Australia is dynamic. Rather than people simply arriving and remaining here for the rest of their lives, people are coming and going. This is a consequence of changing patterns of global mobility.

In general, Australia’s rate of net overseas migration is positive because more people arrive than depart. The border closure has resulted in much smaller flows of both arrivals and departures."
https://scanloninstitute.org.au/migrationdashboard

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 4:41pm
Vic Local wrote:

bonza, I never said immigration doesn't contribute to house price increases.
It does, but there are multiple other factors that are causing house prices to go through the roof. I will list a few for you, roughly in order of significance.
1. Negative gearing
2 Low interest rates
3. Capital gains tax concessions
4. The shit load of covid cash sloshing around in the system looking for a place to invest.
5. the size and quality of houses being built (everyone wants a media room eh)
6. Loose lending regulations
7. Cash grants and Incentives to building and or renovate
8. Boomers dying and their kids spending the inheritance upgrading their houses.
I just get the shits when you have a bloke who wanted to round up South Koreans for immediate deportation saying immigrants are the primary cause of house price rises in Australia.
It's simply not true. Given the studies I linked, net migration (pre covid) was responsible for 15% of price rises. Since covid migration has stopped and the prices of houses has gone through the roof.
Like I said, blowin is just flat out wrong and his judgement is clouded by his rancid anti-immigrant agenda.

This opinion piece by Vic Local directly contradicts the expert opinion of the head of investment at one of the four banks which have sold the hundreds of billions dollars worth of mortgages which enable our entire nation’s real estate industry.

Who are you going to believe? The expert who is paid literally millions of dollars to arrive at his highly educated opinion or a tourism shill from bumfuck Victoria who thinks he’s a mover and shaker in real estate because he rents out a shack to backpackers?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 4:44pm

"This opinion piece by Vic Local directly contradicts the expert opinion of the head of investment at one of the four banks which have sold the hundreds of billions dollars worth of mortgages which enable our entire nation’s real estate industry."
Bullshit blowin. Here's your expert's full article, not just the bit you cherrypicked to support your anti-immigrant agenda. https://www.ampcapital.com/au/en/insights-hub/articles/2021/september/wh...
Stop embarrassing yourself.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 4:56pm
Vic Local wrote:

"The head of AMP investments described exactly how immigration is primarily responsible in the above link i posted."
haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.
What link you utter clown?
You just cherry picked a paragraph from a long article.
There's a reason you didn't actually provide a link. It doesn't support your argument at all. Sure you can grab a sentence from it, but anyone can read it and judge your bullshit for themselves.
Here's the full article.
https://www.ampcapital.com/au/en/insights-hub/articles/2021/september/wh...
Did you even read the whole article blowin or did you just copy and paste the quote from some other source? I'm tipping it's the latter.
BTW, I do find it hilarious that the bloke who told everyone that house prices would collapse 30-50% due to no immigration, still has the gall to lecture us about house prices. Farking embarrassing.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 5:09pm

So your response was just personal abuse, followed by your alleged** history of house purchases, followed by "Maybe you should listen to what I’ve got to say about house prices bloke."
Hang on blowin, you said housing prices were going to collapse 30-50% due to no immigration because of covid. You were so laughably wrong on that weren't you champ? Just like you were so laughably wrong when you quoted (cherrypicked) the AMP economist for an anti-immigrant rant. You never read the whole article did you.
You have literally no credibility when it comes to discussing the economic factors impacting house prices.
Time to put on your big boy pants and say "Yep I was wrong".

** I use the word "alleged" here because you're a bit of a bullshitter. Just wanting to keep things accurate champ.

***BTW blowin did a big delete on his last post. It was nasty, irrelevant, and embarrassing. Hence the edit.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 5:30pm

Yeah, I also said that it was mostly hope because the government would stoop to anything to prevent a house price correction. I still hope house prices will drop and I still believe they’ll drop. Unfortunately I also still believe that the government will continue to do anything it can to prevent this from happening.

PS If you must try and convince yourself that I’m lying then you’re obviously insecure about your own situation. good luck with that bloke.

Anyway. Back to ignoring you bloke. You aren’t interesting or smart enough for my time. As soon as someone starts with that “you’re a bullshitter” rubbish it’s irreconcilably ghey.