Climate Change

blowfly's picture
blowfly started the topic in Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 9:40am

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GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 8:21am

Spoken and written by Info for the Minerals Council (Australia) Canberra

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 11:13am

World news was abuzz when coronavirus cleared the skies...

April World News "Global CO2 emissions saw a record drop during Pandemic"

(Every Newspaper / Web site / TV / Radio ran 1,000 similar headlines).

(* A moment of madness as reality sets in...)

May 2020 World News "CO2 levels hit highest mark in human history"

Headline would hardly sell a newspaper, so very few read it...sorry! No one read it!

WR CO2 Crisis is hardly the news the World wanted to hear. (Yes! Just bin it!)
It goes to show the immense power that world media has in shaping our future.
More importantly it shows how fast the Govt/Corps put their boot on yer neck!

2020 Dr No Conference "So fucking sick of being nice...just wanna press a button!"

CO2 levels are again higher than last year's comparisons, but world is in lockdown?
Hang on! We can't breathe, drive, fly, cruise anywhere + mining -shipping is down.

All Govts contracted & ramped 200% private burning of forests & Med plastics.
Govts save on vax needles if they just rain coronavirus over the ghettos...
As said all Govt Waste & NP inspectors were given the day, month, Ok! Decade off.

Earths largest off the fucking charts enviro crisis was lawfully omitted from records
Across the board skidmark that excuses the greatest fucktards of out time?
tbb is being serious....most departments will proudly show neat blank columns.

Manual reading Recycling, Hydro, wildlife, rangers were binned way way back.
Note this was across all nations, some covid free nations kept their waste pickers.

Emergency Govts powered up mates with open licences to reshape nations.
Yes! Here & abroad we see PM Star Chambers governing over elected reps.
They know better & wield more power than our reconstituted bog roll.

As we discuss this...China is essentially mining & burning more coal than ever...(So!)
Nestle,Pepsi & Unilever are essentially frontlining more forests than ever...(durr).

eg: (Non Official Star Chamber Estimates)
Brazil - Amazon Rainforest Clearing is up 64%
Columbia x3
Indonesia clearing is up 130% > Palm Oil
Australia up 1000% "Selective Harvesting" (Biggest oldest NP trees) + TRP.
Cambodia 400 cases of illegal logging...(tell who?)
Madagascar Mangroves are turning to charcoal
Nepal - Illegal timber Poaching is now essentially a sport.

Schoolkids of tomorrow will read how essential Footy, Movies & the Church was.
They'll also note that the world used a Pandemic to band-aid over Climate crisis.
swellnet crew would have already pencilled that in...preaching to the converted.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 11:30am

"Daily global CO2 emissions decreased by –17% (–11 to –25% for ±1σ) by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels, just under half from changes in surface transport. At their peak, emissions in individual countries decreased by –26% on average. The impact on 2020 annual emissions depends on the duration of the confinement, with a low estimate of –4% (–2 to –7%) if prepandemic conditions return by mid-June, and a high estimate of –7% (–3 to –13%) if some restrictions remain worldwide until the end of 2020."

paper from May. Does not include forestry.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x

blowfly's picture
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blowfly commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 1:02pm

“….I've only ever been a skeptic and open to the idea that there is things we may not know and might be other explanations.”

Just a total cop out mate. Let me tell you about another sceptic I knew. He was sceptical about cancer and how it was treated. So when he got it, instead of having surgery and chemo which would have given him at least an 80% survival rate , he went with “natural” cures, got his chakras aligned and lived on lemon juice for a week, that sort of thing. He died six months after his diagnosis.

You are applying the same level of thinking ( Is that the right word here?) to a global problem and we can expect a similar level of efficaciousness. Scepticism is worthwhile when it is based on some knowledge of the subject beyond that gathered from mass media, social media and other unreliable sources. In this case does your deep understanding of the physics of the carbon dioxide molecule underlie your scepticism? No, I thought not. What about your careful analysis of the vast amounts of temperature data gathered over many decades? Dug down deep in that have you? No, well that was to be expected. What about ice mass measurements or glacier retreat? Not your thing?

So exactly what science underlies your scepticism Indolent? Not much it seems. So you have an unsupported positiion floating in mid -air, tethered to nothing except perhaps a passing maniac of the paranoid variety. Good luck applying the same approach in other areas of your life.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 1:19pm

Why are you backtracking to that post that you have already replied too and pretty much misquoting me? (taking it out of context)

And then comparing it to something silly to make my post look bad...everyone in life is skeptical, skepticism is healthy, but it's just about when and where and to what degree.

Heres what i said

"Oh okay

Ive never been a denier, I've only ever been a skeptic and open to the idea that there is things we may not know and might be other explanations.

But i do have to say ive become less sceptical and just accept it all now and try not to question things, and more sceptical on alternative views around climate change even if they seem to come from decent sources, two reasons for a bit of change. (and even if funny im being 100% honest here)

1. Jim Banks, one or two things he shared on FB on the issue id shared here before, great shaper but totally nut job, if you find yourself agreeing with him or following the same sources on something like climate change or Covid or medicine etc then you have to really question what you are following, there's a good chance it's BS.

2. Covid 19 and all the alternative views on that that you see people sharing on social media or even here (often seemingly from decent sources, like doctors etc), again i dont want to look like those people that share or believe these alternative views.

I guess alternative views can be right, but yeah more likely not, i guess its fine to question mainstream narratives, but maybe question alternative narratives more so.

That said i dont live in fear of climate change, that would really suck or it doesn't change my views on how Australia should tackle things, it should always be a balanced approach like we are taking especially seeing our emissions are close to irrelevant.

And if Gretta gets on her high horse again, im going to still bag the shit out of her same with extortion rebellion."

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indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 1:23pm

BTW. You never answered my question about electric cars?

Have you put your money where your mouth is and bought one?

So i take it that's a no.

Like I've noted I've even looked into one for my missus as would be suitable just a little car for around the area or a day trip etc, even looked into second-hand ones but they are still expensive and then the tech from even a few years ago is pretty average, while the last year or two tech is pretty good, they now seem to have reached that realistic level with range etc.

BTW. the attraction for me is not so much the environment but the running cost and apparently fun to drive.

Hiccups's picture
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Hiccups commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 1:22pm

"And if Gretta gets on her high horse again, im going to still bag the shit out of her same with extortion rebellion."

Look at King Shitheel on Turd Mountain over here.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 1:32pm

Great another leftie that preaches peace, tolerance and diversity of opinion etc but then at any opportunity throws around pointless insults to strangers.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 1:42pm

Velocityjohnno is right to point out that overall 2020 should read less than 2019...

(Note May is peak CO2 North read each year > explains record highest jump ever)
Hawaii...CO2 reads (Continues from VJ's lower CO2 reads to April...)
May 2019 (414.7 ppm) > May 2020 (417.2 ppm)
July 2019 (411 ppm) > July 2020 (414 ppm)
Note activity increases from May, but read is lower as trees kick in to absorb it!.

Tasmania (Note: Oz Jan-March Transit is always 30% slower then builds to Xmas)
Jan 2020 (408.3 ppm)
June 2019 ( 407 ppm) > June 2020 (410 ppm)

Oz $2b bushfires impacted 80% [+]4,500 - {rip} 500 (Smoke related)
The smoke circled the Globe once returning around 16 days later (Approx)
It is believed the smoke health damage will disable future generations

Did other nationalities in foreign lands die because of Oz fires?
Were Australian Senior's lungs still healing from Smoke prior to Covid -19

Did weeklong (Health advisory bushfire lockdowns) better prepare SD Australia.

Australian Bushfires normalised Mask Wearing amongst City scape.
Photo Dec 5 2019 (Masks resembles a Covid Scene?)
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/face-masks-close-to-useless-against-...
It's likely that Southern Oz Asthma Out-patients have worn masks, over 9 months.

Did 20% less o/s tourists & No o/s Students, curb 1st wave of Chinese onslaught.

Clearly #1 Enviro Crisis converged a #1 Health Crisis. (Oz thanks the World)
Will OZ double back to take stock or do we push on as if Double Ups are a one off!
tbb can recall most wiped off Spanish Flu bigger 2nd wave as some relic & Then...

PS: It seems Vic / NSW have walked head first into 3 biggest ever Crises in just 1 year?
How is that even possible? Worse still... is this the new norm? Good health to All.

blowfly's picture
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blowfly commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 4:02pm

Corolla hybrid (great car) for the bulk of our driving (no use though on any sort of dirt) and a petrol RAV4 which I want to upgrade to the hybrid version but they are in short supply. Our solar panels produce, over the year, around the same as our total electricity use, and yes we are with Powershop on a total renewables plan. We don't use gas.
"you guys live in an idealistic fantasy land, the government and most of us live in the real world."

Mate if you are in the same world as the government you are totally deluded. You know trapped in the world of economics and politics when the real world is the air we breathe, the water we surf in and the life that fills the planet. That comes first. Apart from climate change we are in the middle of a mass extinction and are destroying wilderness on a scale that is hard to even imagine.....and the COALition don't care, they live in your imaginary world in which the supreme value is profit.

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 1:39pm

Prime Marketer

Screen-Shot-2020-09-23-at-1-37-09-pm

Hiccups's picture
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Hiccups commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 1:47pm

"Great another leftie that preaches peace, tolerance and diversity of opinion etc but then at any opportunity throws around pointless insults to strangers."

Meh. It's obvious that you're stuck in your bubble of buffoonary. What am I gonna do? Try and change your mind? Might as well just throw insults. BTW I like the way you use leftie as a pejorative. Hahaha

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 1:50pm

Good article explaining battery tech (lithium) and limits to it, where innovation in power/energy/cost will come, and when pricing will lead to mass adoption:

"The US Department of Energy calculates that once battery costs fall below $125 per kWh, owning and operating an electric car will be cheaper than a gas-powered car in most parts of the world. It doesn’t mean electric vehicles will win over gas-powered vehicles in all niches and domains—for example, long-haul trucks don’t yet have an electric solution. But it’s a tipping point where people will start to prefer electric cars simply because they will make more economical sense in most cases."

Currently $156 per Kw/h

https://qz.com/1588236/how-we-get-to-the-next-big-battery-breakthrough/

And blowfly that's a nice mix, the hybrid Corolla is a great car & getting a hybrid RAV is hard at present. It's the best mix for cost/CO2 and consumption improvement right now. Lots of people adopting it.

TBB yep there are lots of feedback loops, suffice it to say the human world took about 1/4 to 1/2 a year off from its CO2 producing ways this year.

H2O's picture
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H2O commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 2:21pm

Half the world lithium is found in Australia - all we do is mine it which is about 1/2 % of value of end product - mabye something that could have been in the latest Gov initiative along with a 2050 target and the certainty of ..well..a plan ffs.

https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/lithium-proces...

H20

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velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 3:59pm

Well, we could be smart and value add which would even employ young local graduates; or, we could just mine 300x the volume of it to have enough to buy a new LandCruiser for 200x, and have 100x left over for the new BBQ, and cheap holiday to Thailand and "equity mate"

Search your feelings, you know it to be true...

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 4:37pm

Um do you want batteries to get cheaper so electric cars are affordable or do you want them to double in price????

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indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 4:45pm

This article is only a day old, lots of other articles from various news sites on the same story too.

"Airbus looks to the future with hydrogen planes

Aerospace giant Airbus has unveiled plans for what it hailed as the first commercial zero-emission aircraft.
The company said its hydrogen-fuelled passenger planes could be in service by 2035.
Airbus chief executive Guillaume Faury said the three ZEROe concept designs marked "a historic moment for the commercial aviation sector".
The use of hydrogen had "the potential to significantly reduce aviation's climate impact", he added.
The concept of emissions-free aviation relies heavily on finding ways to produce large quantities of hydrogen from renewable or low-carbon sources.
Most large-scale production at the moment relies on fossil fuels, particularly methane, and is not considered to be low-carbon.
Analysts point out that it is not the first time that hydrogen has been touted as the saviour of modern air travel..
Its use in aviation goes back to the days of airships in the early 20th Century, but the Hindenburg disaster in 1937 brought that era to an end.
More recently, from 2000 to 2002, Airbus was involved in the EU-funded Cryoplane project, which studied the feasibility of a liquid hydrogen-fuelled aircraft.

Decisive action'
Unveiling its latest blueprints, Airbus said its turbofan design could carry up to 200 passengers more than 2,000 miles, while a turboprop concept would have a 50% lower capacity and range.
A third, "blended-wing body" aircraft was the most eye-catching of the three designs.
All three planes would be powered by gas-turbine engines modified to burn liquid hydrogen, and through hydrogen fuel cells to create electrical power.
However, Airbus admitted that for the idea to work, airports would have to invest large sums of money in refuelling infrastructure.
"The transition to hydrogen, as the primary power source for these concept planes, will require decisive action from the entire aviation ecosystem," said Mr Faury.
"Together with the support from government and industrial partners, we can rise up to this challenge to scale up renewable energy and hydrogen for the sustainable future of the aviation industry."
The new Airbus designs are the fruit of a joint research project that Airbus launched with EasyJet last year to consider hybrid and electric aircraft.
The airline's chief executive, Johan Lundgren, said: "EasyJet remains absolutely committed to more sustainable flying and we know that technology is where the answer lies for the industry."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54242176

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 4:55pm

"And if Gretta gets on her high horse again, im going to still bag the shit out of her"
Wow there some fragile masculinity right there. Having a bit of trouble with a very intelligent teenage girl speaking truth the power indo?

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 5:01pm

Anyone thought about carbon capturing all the bullshit and hot air from Morrison and his ministry?

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 5:06pm

FFS why do you people always have to make everything about race or gender.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 5:08pm

If Carbon Capture and Storage was possible, it would have been accomplished by now. They've invested billions of dollars over more than two decades. CCS would save the coal industry.
The promise of CCS is still an asset for the coal industry because 1. Governments still insist on pissing away tax dollars so CCS still provides a revenue stream for the coal industry. 2. Admitting it was a dud, would fast track the demise of the coal industry.
The CCS dream is a pure fantasy, but a valuable one for the coal industry.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

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GuySmiley commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 5:16pm

Is the cub cadet delusional or what? 2020 the pot calling the kettle black award goes to ....

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 5:55pm

It's the only part of the announcements i thought yeah nah, my impression was that its not really possible, but i really know little about it.

Just doing a quick google search to find what Scomo proposed in more detail (havent got there yet)

But there is a few news stories in the last few days on Norway proposing a similar thing, so maybe there is more too it.

"Norway to launch $2.7 billion Longship carbon capture and storage project"

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/norway-to-launch-27-billion-longship-car...

Edit: seems carbon capture is a pretty broad term can relate to many things, but it is possible in many areas, in WA they got it happening last year with gas and capture about 80% of C02 emissions.

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blowfly commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 8:30pm

The bottomless pit of bullshit strikes again!
"seems carbon capture is a pretty broad term can relate to many things, but it is possible in many areas, in WA they got it happening last year with gas and capture about 80% of C02 emissions."

Not true. In fact a straight out lie. Any chance of a grovelling apogy for (yet again) posting denislaist crap? No, thought not.

"Failed carbon capture cost millions of tonnes of emissions

The project Mr Taylor is talking about is Australia's only large-scale carbon capture and storage operation, located at Chevron's Gorgon gas facility on Barrow Island off Western Australia.

Part of that project's environmental approval was that it would capture and store between 3.4 and 4 million tonnes of CO2 emitted from the plant each year, and it was given $60 million from the Western Australian Government to assist with the technology.

Chevron forecast that the process would see between 5.5 million tonnes and 8 million tonnes of CO2 captured and stored underground in the plant's first two years of operation.

But Chevron was unable to get the technology to work.

Despite that, they started operating their gas processing facility in 2016, without capturing any of its greenhouse emissions at all.

National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting (NGER) data shows that the Gorgon facility emitted over 7.7 million tonnes of CO2 in the 2016-17 reporting period.

Energy consulting firm Energetics estimated at the time that these emissions wiped out all the savings made by rooftop solar across Australia in the same period."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-09-19/angus-taylor-carbon-captu...

...and that last sentence is a kick in the teeth to those of us who have invested our hard earned in solar panels to reduce emissions.

Worth a read for another example of the Golden Angoose in action.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 9:06pm

Angus Taylor is just one of the many seriously bent Federal politicians in Australia. There's literally zero accountability in the LNP. They are seriously corrupt and our system of governance is Crony Capitalism.
These fuckers belong in jail.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

views from the cockpit's picture
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views from the ... commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 5:45am

Yeah carbon capture- it even sounds like bullshit! As if!!!
It has delivered... nothing, despite our taxes by the millions being thrown at it.
Like so many "Carbon Offsets".
A total fkn wank.
Still it employs a few sheeple I guess...

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 6:54am

You missed this bit BB the most important bit of the story.

"In late 2019, Chevron announced that its technology was finally working, attributing the hold up to problems caused by water in the gas it was extracting.

The company, which has been sparing in the information it's made public about the project, said the carbon capture and storage operation would be at full capacity by 2020."

So to sum it all up.

They were suppose to have the tech working from 2016 and reduce emissions from that period onwards, but havent been able to get it going because of technical issues to do with water in the gas.

According to them it's now working, but the emissions from the last two years also have to be taken into account from now to 2021, which means although they say it will be remove 80% of emissions, with the backlog taken into account it will end up being much less on paper.

BTW. that article is a great example of ABC not really reporting a story but putting a bias negative Guardian type slant on it to steer the reader in a direction they want, something a tax payer funded media outlet shouldn't be involved in.

If we can believe everything said is true, the tech is now working.

It is a fair question to ask why its taken 3 to 4 years to get it working, would have been good if the article had explained that in much mire detail, being a practical person that actually lives in the real world, i can understand that they might have basically had to completely redesign and rebuild the system something that takes time.

Although we have to believe all that is said is true, to be fair to both views, time will tell if what they say is true and it is working.

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GuySmiley commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 6:49am

.... the prime marketer’s latest “announcements” need to get through the Senate first, there’s a chance it will be blocked

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 6:57am

Which would seem absolutely crazy, but seeing the Greens voted against a price on carbon, well nothing would surprise me.

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GuySmiley commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 7:43am

The last time I looked the (dreaded) Greens do not have the balance of power in the Senate numb-nut but carry on.

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GuySmiley commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 7:46am

^^

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blowfly commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 8:50am

"If we can believe everything said is true, the tech is now working."

Despite being widely lauded as a success story for CCS, the Gorgon LNG Project has failed to sequester CO2 as promised over its first two years. This has led to millions of tonnes of additional emissions, likely at least half as large as the increase in national emissions last year. Chevron will not however face a penalty for this. It does not face penalties for breaching its Western Australian approval, and the WA government remains ambiguous about when it would require Chevron to purchase offsets. It has set an emissions limit for itself under the safeguard mechanism that does not include operational CCS.
https://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/P635%20Gorgon-tuan%20Problem%...

Chevron has passed a milestone of one million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions captured and stored underground at its Gorgon LNG plant in Western Australia

https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/chevron-injects-one-millio...
(Feb 2020)

Assuming this million tonnes was all in one year it is about 25% of their annual emissions, nowhere near the 80% you claimed so yeh I will still accept your apology for posting grossly misleading bullshit in support of your sceptical political views. In short then, in terms of emissions the project has been a catastrophic failure and has knocked out the reductions made by the use of solar cells. Further on the evidence to date, even if it remains fully functional (a huge if) it will never catch up with the additional emissions it failed to catch over the last few years and for which it has failed to purchase offsets.

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blowfly commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 8:52am

Screen-Shot-2020-09-24-at-8-51-47-am

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 8:54am

Wow blowfly, regarding the Gorgon Project!

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blowfly commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 8:57am

....and free access to the new nature paper predicting irreversible melting in Antarctica

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2727-5.epdf?sharing_token=a3n...

blowfly's picture
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blowfly commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 9:01am

...and the Abstract
Screen-Shot-2020-09-24-at-9-00-17-am

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 12:36pm

The paper looks to be modeling based on temperature projections, which are based on climate models. In that respect it is not predicting irreversible melting, but estimating levels of melt based on 2, 6 and 9 and 10 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

Here's the current Antarctic sea ice levels, they are at all-time measured highs and to top that off, higher than the interdecile range, and almost higher than the interquartile range for the 1981-2010 median!

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/antarctic-daily-image-update/

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blowfly commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 2:25pm

Of course the authors disagree with your view.
" Here we show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible"

NASA seem to be using different data on the Antarctic sea ice. I think the general view is that more work is necessary to understand the increase to 2014 and the precipitous decline through to 2017.

Screen-Shot-2020-09-24-at-2-21-15-pm

https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-cover

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 4:24pm

"The last time I looked the (dreaded) Greens do not have the balance of power in the Senate numb-nut but carry on."

Did i suggest they did?...NO

The point is the outcomes of these things aren't always obvious.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 4:33pm

@ Blowfly

Seems we both misread it.

"Now, according to Chevron's own estimates, the Gorgon facility will eventually capture a maximum of around 4 million tonnes of CO2 annually. Based on previous years, that might be about 40 per cent of annual emissions"

Anyway i would have thought anything they can capture is a good thing.

It will all help reduce our what was it 1.3% or something of global emissions.

Let's not talk about the elephant in the room, China.

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Craig commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 4:32pm

Indo, they've captured nothing of yet but emitted 7.7 + 9 + 8 MT. So let's say they get to 4MT this year, that's 4 / 24.7 = 15%.

And what, you think this is just going to sit in the ground for millions of years? Seriously..

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 4:35pm

You're right we should just let the countries we export gas too, go back to using more polluting fuels.

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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 5:27pm

"Here we show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible" + "and we believe these thresholds will be taken out" - would be more "predicting irreversible melting".

Anyway, wording. Also interesting that depending on where you get your Antarctic data, the visual presentation of the chart tends toward one point of view or another. As the chief scientist at my lab job once said with a wry smile when I asked "What does the data say?" of an ICP-MS result; "What do you want it to say?".

It's not worth it to argue back and forth extremes with you anyway. I do respect your stance and longstanding interpretation of what you see in the science. In looking through years and years worth of events and data I also found many papers in astrophysics and physics to suggest unusual changes throughout the solar system and the electromagnetic environment occurring right now. If there is one series of papers I will come back to discuss, they are in the process of being written, and concern the inclusion of a far more detailed and accurate solar/magnetic input on climate models, and should be included in the next IPCC report.

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blowfly commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 5:49pm

It would take some pretty robust new data for the IPCC to be interested vj. Unless the time scale and magnitude of the effects are in the same order of magnitude (or greater) as those from greenhouse gases they are probably going to be put in the interesting but not quite relevant basket.

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Patrick commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 6:04pm
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JQ commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 6:10pm

Hey Indo, why don't we talk about the 'elephant in the room'

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/22/china-pledges-to-rea...

'“China will scale up its intended nationally determined contributions [under the Paris climate agreement] by adopting more vigorous policies and measures,” the Chinese president said, calling for a “green recovery” from the coronavirus pandemic.'

Looks like you can't use the 'but muuuUUUuuum, the other kids are all throwing rocks at the trains' excuse anymore. Don't worry, it didn't work with my mum when I was 7 either. Over time, with growth and maturation we can all move past it.

This whole 'argument' (calling it an argument is bloody generous) is such a load of crap. You generally seem reasonably astute Indo, why do you buy in to what is so obviously a ridiculous twisting of stats. 1.3% sure is a small number isn't it!

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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 6:15pm

No worries BB, I will try to find some time to revisit what they are looking at & where, so we can see it and discuss it here. It probably will not shift the IPCC view on cause and effect, but it might make for changed inputs in future modeling.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 7:11pm

@ JQ

I shouldn't have mentioned China, we have done this topic all before and been through all this and much more.. about a year or so ago, maybe you weren't around.

Reality is the future depends on China so lets hope what they have said recently is true, but highly doubtful, that's not to say we dont do what we can, we should reduce emissions as we are but a measured sensible response not a reckless response at the expense of the economy.

Because reality is end of the day we are close to irrelevant we reduce emissions more in the idea that we must do our part and hope others also do the same.

Anyway few points.

1. While every other country signed to the Paris agreement has agreed to reduce emissions, China can increase theirs until 2030. (i guess it was the only way to get them in, and China can do what they like, even Greta would never dare mention them)

2. Their emissions make up about 30% of world emissions but by 2030 that will be much higher, from memory it was predicted to be almost 50% of world emissions as most countries emissions drop and theirs increase.

3. One year of Australias emissions equals 18 days of China's emissions.

This is about when people say, yeah but per capita Australias emissions are bah blah blah.

Well if you want to talk per capita, we also know per capita our uptake of renewables is one of the fastest rates if not the fastest in the world, and per capita Australia already has the highest percentage of household roof top solar.

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 8:22pm

Indo,

Will be interesting to see where China goes with their announcement, let's hope it's true. They do live on this planet too remember. Whilst I'm absolutely no fan of their particular version of centralised authoritarian capitalism, their government is not beholden to fossil fuel interests the way ours is - theirs if anything is the opposite arrangement.

This idea that we have to choose between the economy and reducing emissions is a total furphy. The two are absolutely not mutually exclusive.

Fact is, the most responsible and effective response is a price on carbon. This would be a really effective control point to let the market do its thing and work towards greater efficiency and reduced emissions. Unfortunately this approach was cynically weaponised and destroyed purely in the pursuit of power.

The approach we've seen from the Liberal government - while not all bad - is reckless. It's clearly designed to appease their donors. Locking in gas, which is what the policy will do, is reckless and exposes us to completely unnecessary economic risk in the future as other countries move away from fossil fuels. Considering they have poisoned the best approach (carbon price), at the very least they should be technologically agnostic, they've chosen not to do this.

1. Yep, maybe that was the price to get them to sign up.

2/3. The poor behaviour of others does not excuse or justify out own behaviour. We do not control their actions and choices, we only control ours. As you said, we can only hope to set an example and help to apply pressure.

As I said before, just because the other kids are throwing rocks at trains, doesn't mean you should too.

Yes, per capita Australias has one of the highest (if not the highest) rates of emissions. The bulk of this comes from coal burning for power, hence the focus on that industry.

Remember Indo, every cigarette does damage. It's not 'just one ciggie'. Your children & grandchildren have to live in this world too mate

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tubeshooter commented Thursday, 24 Sep 2020 at 10:30pm

China ..."If pollution ruins a river , we will build a new river".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJ4K0hHin9s&t=15s