COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 5:04pm

I bet he surfs more than you jq, ...probably gets a lot more mores too...

all while fulfilling the role of a carer

he's doing something right

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 5:06pm

What are 'mores'?

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 5:16pm

"You think it's balanced Indo?

I don't."

Im not sure what you mean?...im not suggesting the forums are balanced or not suggesting the views of those posters are balanced, I'm just suggesting these posters and myself even yourself are important in providing some type of balance here, without us it would just be an echo chamber of sorts.

But yeah the forums are not a reflection of the balance in wider society on topics/issues/discussions or even in the surfing community.

If you have ever seen Jim banks FB post and all the other comments under them you will see what i mean, you know the funny thing is a while back (before he JB blocked me) i actually found myself liking Laurie's comments under Jim banks post as they were the only half sensible comments which is funny because here we our views are polar opposites.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 5:10pm

more more of everything...

and mores too

blowfly's picture
blowfly's picture
blowfly commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 5:20pm

The concept of balance has suffered a great deal of abuse in the last decade. It has become an excuse for sane, reasonable views supported by evidence to be "balanced" by unreasonable nonsense vomited up without any respect for reality. In short "balance" is frequently used to justify completely unbalanced views. You might be entitled to your opinions but when they are unsubstaniated bullshit, you have no claim on promoting them in the name of "balance".

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 5:22pm

All that may be true sypkan, neither of us really knows. He can certainly only dream of ever being as awesome as me though.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 5:31pm

I'm sure that may be true jq...

I just know not many fifo monkeys get their shit together as much, or as early as blowin did

the 'opportunities' are a trap in themselves...

the guy clearly got out, and is getting about, while there's still a flicker of flame

not many do

factotum's picture
factotum's picture
factotum commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 5:32pm

Sepp, you realise Trump is fulla shit, yeah?

Well, you used to.

Our Trump has certainly sucked you into his vortex.

And again...

Sepp, what is a 'deplorable'? Are you one, or just feel the need to nobly go to bat for them? Regardless of what they think, feel, are informed by?

And what is my "ridiculous, earnestly stubborn, yet disintergrating before our very eyes world view"?

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 5:48pm

I know he's full of shit

still...

but I also know you are full of shit

yet he is 'winning'

I know we're not really winning, but he is most certainly winning, and therein lays your problem...

your challenge is you're yet to accept it

still...

factotum's picture
factotum's picture
factotum commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 5:43pm

Blowfly, of course that is spot on. Sad state of affairs that it needs to be said again, and again, and again.

Jeezus, remember when Brian Cox was on QANDA and had to 'debate' Malcolm Roberts on the existence of climate change, let alone what can be done about it.

Fuck me, what a waste of precious time.

factotum's picture
factotum's picture
factotum commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 5:47pm

What about our very own Swellnet Trumpy again?

And again, 3rd times a charm...

Sepp, what is a 'deplorable'? Are you one, or just feel the need to nobly go to bat for them? Regardless of what they think, feel, are informed by?

And what is my "ridiculous, earnestly stubborn, yet disintergrating before our very eyes world view"?

Take a deep breath...

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 5:50pm

you don't deserve those answers

you give nothing

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 5:51pm

but you get it

I think... hope...

maybe not

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 5:55pm

You should know better than asking 'tricky' questions facto. Can you imagine the fallout if some genuine self-reflection was undertaken?

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 6:04pm

no offence jq, but you're pretty new round here

facto (and his various personalities) is / are notorious round here for not answering questions and for giving nothing of the self

he's pretty bad at self reflection too...

so you are way off the mark there mate

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Saturday, 19 Sep 2020 at 6:27am

if he was honest or being even remotely genuine, we've actually already been through all this a number of times

facto is just fishing for another belittlement opportunity

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 6:10pm

"facto (and his various personalities) is / are notorious round here for not answering questions and for giving nothing of the self

he's pretty bad at self reflection too..."

"facto is just fishing for another belittlement opportunity"

100%

factotum's picture
factotum's picture
factotum commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 6:28pm

Still not reading and taking your own whiny advice, Info?

Love that signature too, by the way, snowflake.

When's MB get a guernsey?

factotum's picture
factotum's picture
factotum commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 6:46pm

And Sepp, why would anyone in their right mind, rely on you for any insight into what's what on here? You don't even know what you post yourself daily, sometimes not even what you blurt out in the same post, let alone what's my "ridiculous, earnestly stubborn, yet disintergrating before our very eyes world view" according to you??

So, no answer, as usual. We get it.

You're a self-defined 'deplorable' whatever the fuck that entails.

Just keep pumping out your meaningless buzzwords and other slurry, without question then!

Kool.

And you wonder why nobody but Info and Aussie Trumpy/Blowhard/Sweetie (maybe not even them?) takes your shallow speed-slop even remotely seriously?!

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Saturday, 19 Sep 2020 at 6:27am

if I'm so full of shit, then why are you guys so perpetually triggered?

permanently

surely if I speak so much bullshit you've got nothing to worry about, you can ignore me, and you can just continue bouncing off your hyper partisan echo chamber

but you don't

because Im not

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 9:49pm

as to the rest, look it up hilary

you get it, ...surely by now, ....surely? ...but probably not,

you and facto are both clearly terrible at self reflection...

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher commented Thursday, 17 Sep 2020 at 10:10pm

Official Australian + States + Demographics Covid-19 (Detailed Data sets )

Communicable Diseases Intelligence
National Incident Room Surveillance Team

COVID-19 Australia Epidemiology (Fortnightly) Reports
https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/novel_co...

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 22 Sep 2020 at 6:44pm

Just a bump, was reading this morning of increased 2nd wave outbreaks in Europe and large 1st waves continuing in the developing world. From memory
UK 4000+ infections a day recently, they are sounding out another lockdown
France 7 day average up at 10,000 a day!
India - high 80,000s to 90,000s per day
Indo hospital system under pressure

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Tuesday, 22 Sep 2020 at 8:52pm

France, India, and the UK are basket cases and the third wave is starting in the USA.
I'm tipping the USA is going to be smashed in the third wave, which is spreading quickly in universities and at events like the Sturgis motorbike festival.
Trump's rallies all of the country, with fucking muppets who think Covid 19 is a hoax, is just bat shit crazy.
Deluded anti-science muppets, a crackpot leader who doesn't give a shit about anyone but himself, an approaching winter, and an election that's going to end in violence. What a fucking mess.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 7:40am

So hard to know what to believe with all this Covid stuff.

For example on the ABC radio i hear so many conflicting so called expert views, I've heard so much positive stuff on vaccines that look to be effective experts real positive talking it all up with optimism.

Then yesterday i heard another so called expert still saying its unlikely we will ever get an effective vaccine as its a coronavirus.

san Guine's picture
san Guine's picture
san Guine commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 8:33am

ID you are 100% correct, it is hard (nay on impossible) to disseminate all the information, misinformation and conflicting "expert" opinion around COVID vaccines.

The best strategy is to minimise you and your families risk of getting it (unless we do get a safe, effective vaccine...the big if!). Social distancing, hand washing and for us in Vic, face masks.

A colleague of mine got it in March, she is a reasonably fit and healthy 45 year old with nil pre-existing co-morbidities, secondary to transporting a positive inpatient. She required no hospitalisation, but still has quite debilitating symptoms 6 months later (unprovoked/paroxysmal tachycardia and SOB). She can only do limited managerial duties (no clinical shifts) and will be on Workcover for another 6 months. She is OK with me mentioning her case, for those concerned with privacy and confidentiality.

You don't want this virus.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 9:12am

Reckon the fact is that no-one, not scientists, citizens, or policymakers, have the luxury of time, which would usually be spent working theories back and forth in scientific journals away from public examination, so Joe Public has become an unwitting passenger in science-on-the-run.

I think it's good the public sees how science works, how theories are settled, but unfortunately the case studies are real life, our lives, and it's puzzling and disruptive.

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 9:17am

You don’t want this virus

*because of the unlikely but possible chance that you could react to it like above

san Guine's picture
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san Guine commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 9:32am

Shoredump, the more pertinent questions are, are you prepared to take that risk, and potentially affect those around you? and why is it unlikely?

san Guine's picture
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san Guine commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 9:56am

Stu,
You are right it is "science on the run", in 5 years time there will 100000 Phd's produced from this pandemic and we will have a pretty good understanding of it. But in the meantime we are all part of a giant, disruptive and poorly understood scientific experiment with no clear end point (at this stage).

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 10:11am

Just to get out ahead of the curve...

I predict those "100,000 PhD's" will somehow be twisted into a new chapter of the plandemic narrative. Something about hackacdemics milking the teat for funds when the answers are already on Facebook.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 10:11am

Yep Science on the run....except we have the media, as well as social media, incorrectly (and relentlessly) filling in the gaps with opinions on a daily basis.

The science for this will take years, but the public is being fed these opinions daily.

What could go wrong!?

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 11:54am

I don’t want it but yes I do take the risk of still going out the door just to surf or grab an icecream, all reasonable measures taken of course.

I know someone who hasn’t swam in the ocean for 20 years due to the risk of shark attack.

Unlikely? That’s the stats.
Approximately 70,000 Australians infected just before Victoria’s 2nd wave, and no way was there 35,000 serious outcomes, in fact the majority didn’t know they had it, that’s why that number only came about through antibody studies.

100% you can be unlucky to catch it then unlucky once again to fall seriously ill from it

One of the biggest killers in Australia remains suicide, and the fear of covid has exacerbated it unfortunately.
This is the reason I attempt to keep the chat closely aligned to reality.

synchrodogcal's picture
synchrodogcal's picture
synchrodogcal commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 12:22pm

everything in life is russian roulette to some extent, but the thing with being blase about this virus is that you're not just pointing the gun at your own head

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 12:28pm

I see Trumpy is still on the "Plan for the best, hope the worst doesn't happen" option. Don't bother trying to push the US / British / Swedish pandemic response option here folks. I'm in no mode for that special brand of stupid.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

san Guine's picture
san Guine's picture
san Guine commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 12:34pm

Hi Shoredump,
I'm glad you're taking reasonable measures to minimise your risk, I'm not advocating total isolation but using a false comparison "someone who hasn't swum in the sea for 20 years" is not particularly useful.
I agree that mental health issues being exacerbated by the pandemic/fear of the virus is a huge problem, the fall-out from that will a long term and on-going problems for families, loved ones and our health system. This will be one of many "hidden" or poorly reported 'costs' of the pandemic.
The problem with this pandemic is that really we know incredibly little about novel corona viruses and from previous outbreaks (I use the term advisedly) of SARS etc. have shown how poorly equipped we are to combat its' spread and to even produce some form of vaccine.
What I fear is that we have very little understanding of the longer term impacts on peoples health and with that in mind I think it is totally reasonable to want to ameliorate any potential exposure.
I hope that clarifies my POV.

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2020 at 2:31pm

I agree sG, wasn’t trying to counter you, just adding to what you said earlier

@synchrodogcal
My favourite personality type for 2020 is without a doubt the Covid behaviour nazi climate denier