COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 10:04am

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/coronavirus-traces-lingered-in-...

" Traces of new coronavirus were found on surfaces in cruise-ship cabins for as many as 17 days after passengers left, researchers said, though it wasn’t possible to determine whether they caused any infections."

channel-bottom's picture
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channel-bottom commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 11:14am

My only thoughts on that is what do they mean by trace.

If you run a blacklight over a bed for example, you can see plenty of traces of activity....

sypkan's picture
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sypkan commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 11:15am

those amounts of days are just getting longer....

we started with 5 hours

don't believe anything china says!

this thing may be totally natural, an unfortunate result of a woeful wet market, whatever started it, china is not being helpful

...well aside from the propaganda campaign telling us they will save us all by drip feeding supplies...

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 11:43am

On the topic of health system overload, a bloke I know who was an army nurse some 20 years ago has been informed that he's been added to a list of ex-docters and ex-nurses who may be seconded by the govt to help staff hospitals.

C.F. govt publically insisting that the system is not on track to being overwhelmed.

He who hesitates is lost

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 12:09pm
truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Wednesday, 25 Mar 2020 at 11:55am

Australian Immunisation & Testing during Coronavirus Pandemic.

*Childhood Vaccination (5% Refusal) No Pay'n'Play School...( Govt cost: $500m/yr )
Refusal rate has doubled in 10 years.

* Pets (Kittens/Pups x 3 shots) + Cats / Dogs Annual Shots (Including Coronavirus)

* Newstart (Lib Party Donor Card) Drug Test ( Refusal-lose 80% ) $900 / test
Positive Tests = $500 /day Rehab ($10m cap)

*Workplace Drug Test (Refusal) Instant Dismissal
(Saliva / Urine) $150 collection + $200 Lab Test / per sample

* Sports (Doping Test) Refusal = Min 3 Years Ban + Drug Cheat label on record.
(Urine Test $825 + Blood Test $300 ) a/h $225/hr (Test- 7,498 Athletes)

* o/s Shots (Refusal) Grounded (518 Aussies die o/s from Disease / yr)

* Roadside Tests (Drug / Alcohol) Refuse > Instant Suspension + Huge Fines.
Drug Tests (Swab Kits) 400,000/yr @ $40 test = Police Time / Van / Station etc.
Alcohol Tests (Much More) Kits sell to $100 + same as above requirements.
Note: (Police have cancelled Static Large scale pullovers > RBT in maintained)

*Police Drug testing is Oz most affordable multi detection screening available...

*Bowel Screening (Over 50) Govt DNA profiling is slowing but expanding > 45/yo.
$160m /1.6m tests 40% Participation. $100/test (Kit sells for $40)

*Festival (Pill Testing) $4m/yr for 18 Festival units (Main/Regional Cities)

* Flu Vaccine. (2019) 12m vaccines > 310,000 cases > 900 deaths

*Coronavirus Testing > Not yet as profitable as current Govt tests & vaccines.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-24/new-covid-19-testing-criteria-com...

2020 Govt have plenty of Lab tests to fine, suspend, ban or rob you, just not to save you!
Once Govt agree on fines & penalties for non compliance, we'll all be tested for Corona.

Fliplid's picture
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Fliplid commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 7:29pm

Finally got around to reading the linked article from Blowins comment on Monday

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be93...

One of the reasons given for the ineffectiveness of going into lockdown early is (not by the author)

“It wouldn’t even solve the problem, because we would be just postponing the epidemic: later on, once we release the social distancing measures, people will still get infected in the millions and die.”

However the author then goes on to explain why this excuse is wrong, and his reasons makes sense

In the interview Scott Morrison gave on the ABC Sunday night he said these exact words. It seems more likely that an effective response is going to come from the states, not the federal government.

Actually a positive article because it makes a solid case for a way out of this epidemic.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 7:51pm

That’s a bit disturbing VJ

Fliplid's picture
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Fliplid commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 8:23pm

Not sure if this link has already been posted.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHmKY8wZfOg

Dr Norman Swan has some serious messaging. Time to stop thinking it won’t happen to us.

Too much involvement from politicians

38% (?) of people in intensive care in New York State are young people

April 7th health care services in Australia will be overwhelmed if infections continues at the current rate

keano's picture
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keano commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 11:12pm

Spoke to one of my family tonight who work at a large regional hospital in management. The directive is that they will deal with spikes of the virus controlled by the health system to manage capacity in hospitals.

COVID19 at this stage is unlike SARS which randomly at some point mutated to stop being transferred via community contact. They have no idea why SARS did that. At this stage COVID19 is showing no signs of mutating. Which is seriously freaking the medical profession out.

The spike theory is that they will cut access to the system and let people die so to relieve the pressure on the hospitals. These timelines and bed flow situations are already being modelled. If any of us need a wake up call that we are on the same track as Europe, know that this is coming as a senior directive to management in hospitals in NSW.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 25 Mar 2020 at 8:57am

Just got info that ICU cases for Aus are running about 2% so will update the model using this new data today.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan commented Wednesday, 25 Mar 2020 at 9:45am

how can this shit still be happening?

it gives me no pleasure at all to post vids like this, despite what dumb cunt may think, but this cannot continue

government wake the fuck up!

I really really hate to say it, but a lot this does look rather organised and coordinated, ...orchestrated even...

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=3738917032847067&id=14763281...

charles-barkley's picture
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charles-barkley commented Wednesday, 25 Mar 2020 at 10:19am

2% requiring ICU is much better than 5%. Looking forward to the update thanks Craig.

Distracted's picture
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Distracted commented Wednesday, 25 Mar 2020 at 10:24am

Craig, was looking at your forecast infection numbers and they are looking pretty close.... good from a model perspective but bad news from health perspective. Does look like the shit will really hit the fan in a couple weeks, even without that Ruby Princess debacle.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 25 Mar 2020 at 11:10am

Great and simple!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 25 Mar 2020 at 11:15am

Also thanks Distracted yeah it's still on track, though latest data using the 2% ICU now has the break point back to the 14th of April so a bit more time.

Will post screengrabs later.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Wednesday, 25 Mar 2020 at 12:19pm

I can’t believe anyone wouldn’t comply, crazy because it’s pretty simple. I’m arguing alternate realities online, but still I went straight to it from the first day I heard it suggested. From my obs it’s easily 90% compliance or above, but I don’t live in Bondi. Social distancing comes naturally to me anyway haha.
Our numbers are doubling every 3 days now

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Wednesday, 25 Mar 2020 at 2:00pm

Young Women have twice the immunity of ageing males.
Salute the 80% majority of young Women being sacrificed on the front line.

This Nurse shows 4 Patients / 1 ventilator is it possible without cross contamination...
Imagine 4 People breathing the same contaminated air (It's a small world after all)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8125219/Ventilators-modified-...

Religion of Corona :
No means No ...Religion is Petitioning Pollies to close Non Essential ungodly practices.
Abortion Clinics, Termination Drugs, Gender assist, Eating Disorder,
Bible Belt are using Coronvirus to terminate the [Non Essential -YES VOTE]
Yes! Religion world wide is using Coronavirus as a Battle Weapon to rid [YES] people.

Religion flips Health imagery for cred as Govt 'sanctioned' Corona Carers.
Diminishing YES rights & services to switch Govt favour for God's caring services.

Govt are bypassing Home School Background Checks. (Lock up yer Kids!)
Sunday to Saturday School locked in Pastor's Dungeon Classroom.[SOS]
Farmer Tom's Classroom has a Portrait of George Pell next to the Gun on the wall.
PM's Plan: (a) Home School Rape Dungeon (b) Burnt down Schools (c) A mix of the Two!
Note: (b) Maybe hiding a missing child at time of Local School Arsonist's Happy Hour.

Trapped Wives with no escape [Praise be the Lord]
Contraception supplies are harder to access ( Thanx God )
Locked Up Daughters & Queer Sons [ There is a God ]
Rod of God (Give me strength Oh! Lord)

tbb is saying that Home detention plays into the hands of Bully Bible bashers.
We could end up with teen rape pregnancies & stolen [YES] freedoms...
People will wake to a very different world without knowing what went wrong...
You'd expect nothing less from the christian lobby...Blind leading the blind!

charles-barkley's picture
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charles-barkley commented Wednesday, 25 Mar 2020 at 2:02pm

Hi Craig, latest update from Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly is total cases 2252, of that 197 cases (8.7%) required hostipalisation and 17 (0.75%) in ICU.

The low rate of serious medical care required in Australia is due to the high rate of testing so we are picking up people with mild cases as opposed to Italy where they were testing more at the top end of illness.

Where does 0.75% ICU put us?

Noted that this is a rapidly changing situation and the ICU requirement could easily go up. Thanks for your information.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 25 Mar 2020 at 2:16pm

Ah thanks for that, so that's even better.

That pushes us to reaching breaking point with 320,000 cases which is April the 18/19th on current trends.

With the isolation taking place though we'll hopefully see the trend in new cases slow.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Wednesday, 25 Mar 2020 at 2:53pm

Great work guys...
2019...Oz Flu Vaccines 12.1m / Cases - 310,000 / Deaths-900 / (0.29%)

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truebluebasher commented Wednesday, 25 Mar 2020 at 8:31pm

[ Qld Public Health Alert ] Noosa WSR
Restaurant Diners that attended 'Sails'
18th March 4:00pm - 11:15 pm
19th March 3:00pm - 10:00 pm

Monitor Health or report ill health
Call: 13HEALTH 13 43 25 84

Qld's biggest Corona Cluster broke out on 14th March Birthday Party
The Party spread out & Dined thru other Bars, Cafes, Accom (now 13 infected)
Extra 4 infected staff continued working at Sails [WSR] on said dates.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-queensland-sails-rest...

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 25 Mar 2020 at 9:28pm

Latest update and forecast using the new 0.75% ICU rate.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

And infections for Aus (3rd column from left) and NSW (2nd column from right)

carpetman's picture
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carpetman commented Thursday, 26 Mar 2020 at 8:20am

ICU beds per state is being reported now too Craig. So ya should be able to balance your numbers a bit better with after a quick google search.

Good work btw!

Balance's picture
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Balance commented Thursday, 26 Mar 2020 at 8:33am

It has its teeth into Africa now...really bad news

channel-bottom's picture
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channel-bottom commented Thursday, 26 Mar 2020 at 9:05am

Thanks Craig, I like this analysis.

I think Wednesday 1st April to Friday 3rd April (12 - 14 days after 40,000 turned up to Bondi last Friday) will be enlightening on how bad this is going to be. I'm expecting a big spike.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 26 Mar 2020 at 10:11am

Thanks Carpetman, on investigation ICU rate for NSW at 1.3% while South Australia is 1%.

I've again adjusted the model to reflect this and put it to 1% ICU rate of Australian cases and we see the breaking point of the Health System only coming forward one more day, if at all. IE April 18th still.

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden commented Thursday, 26 Mar 2020 at 6:15pm

With respect Craig, too early to predict ICU rate.
12 intubated in NSW at the moment I think.
So if say 2 extubated or 2 more intubated the rate changes significantly.
Many more not intubated but in ICU not particularly unwell just best place in the hospital to isolate them from staff and other patients. Maybe these have been included in your numbers.
It’s an absolutely critical phase of the tactical approach adopted by the government.
If you know anyone who is flouting the isolation rules give them a stern talking too.
In fact give them a lot more than that.
If everyone suffers now through the three hardest weeks of their life and social isolates to the max we have a fighting chance

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Thursday, 26 Mar 2020 at 7:16pm

Anyone not building their immune system now is mad

It’s coming for YOU

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Thursday, 26 Mar 2020 at 9:03pm

Immune system produce = picked by 2.4m / $2hr VISA dry-docked backpackers
Strictly 2 Limit Health Product [Sold Out] Supermarket $ Double price-dip gouging

Highly processed glitter wrapped Junkfood = No limits

(US- Up% Purchasing) 1,000's = Extra Employ...

Powdered Milk 375%, Dry Soup 235%, Pizza / Dominos 10,000, (Fruit & Veg Oz Prices Double - eg Coles $175 kg Chillies in Jar), Pepsi 6,000, Bread (3,000), Vegan Snacks 150%, Popcorn 48%, Pretzels 47%, Potato Chips 30%, Cookies 20% (1,000),

SOLD OUT - Food Staples
Bottled Water, Soy Milk, Cooking Sauces /Oils, Flour, Rice, Pasta, Lentils, Noodles Cereal, Beans, Tinned Fish / Frozen-canned-Veges,

Meat (NZ butchers-closed Non Essential)
Mince...OMG so much mince...(tbb is not gonna go there!)
Ute sized Sausage Packs to line the floor, walls, ceiling of baby boom Nursery

Oz worst ever slovenly TV diet is pre-manufactured by your local Supermarkets
Cheap sundry items...Oh! Bad luck again....[We're not stocking Staples in a crisis]
Attention Shoppers! So sorry, but we have full shelves of premium priced junk food.

Exercise ban / 94% Govt Health Ban / Corona sideline Health Crisis is alarming.
Oz only needs to put on 6kgs to claim #1...Reckon we're good for 10kgs of that!
Consider island countries are already in lockdown > Aus vs US in (Couch Comp)

UK Govt wanna end The Great Corona Supermarket exploitation.
Soon have Health Food (Immune) Ration Parcels & incentives.
https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2020/03/23/Coronavirus-UK-urged-to...

ilikelamb's picture
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ilikelamb commented Thursday, 26 Mar 2020 at 9:53pm

Original forecasting spreadsheet numbers are looking good...... updated ones seem out can you elaborate on what made you change Craig?
Cancel that, just worked it out 1.23 over more days..... if I was a gambling man I’d be placing bets on the original ssheet.
I’m not and sorry if this bad joke offends anyone.
Thanks for the data Craig it’s been valuable in explaining to some of my people what is up.
All the best and good luck.✌️

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden commented Thursday, 26 Mar 2020 at 11:35pm

Anyone reading this, you may not like what I’ve had to say in the past but the next 2-3 weeks are absolutely critical.
Our spike in numbers in NSW are from multiples of people testing positive from functions or cruise ships which skews the numbers up in quanta, dose not necessarily reflect general community transmission.
Absolute vigilance with social distancing and hand washing is critical for the next 3 weeks to avoid a catastrophe.
Smarter people than me are saying that we are unique in the entire world in that we have an opportunity to minimise the impact of spread to a world record low...just have to be ridiculously vigilant over the next few weeks

poo-man's picture
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poo-man commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 2:54am

I heard some questions yesterday from some reporters in NZ asking the director general of health here about whether there were different strains emerging. He alluded to some research on that but didn't elaborate. Anyone hear anything on that? The reason I ask is that NZ is now over 200 cases and only 6 in hospital and no one yet has been admitted to ICU. Is the sample size too small yet?

poo-man

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 3:49am

You heard right poo-man
COVID -19 has been renamed SARS-CoV2
Type S- Ancestral 30% ( Less Severe survives longer & more transferable as now)
Type L (Genetically Changed) - 70% ( Aggressive but Quarantine is slowing it!)
The L was spreading fast & Ramping...(China / Possibly Italy) now fading off!
Same vaccine should work on either.

S & L is how some get the coronavirus twice...link > Gold Coast patient...
[ Important ] Just as many scientists discount this theory.

https://www.newsweek.com/more-aggressive-coronavirus-evolved-1490623

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 6:06am

Thanks TBB.

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 8:13am

Thanks Tyler, with the 1% ICU rate I'm using at the moment it's already under the 5% used by most others in their modelling.

But yes, as this crisis evolves we'll get better and better data and the coming few weeks are critical.

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 8:31am

I’m not aware of a source for accurate ICU admissions for both ventilated and non ventilated patients in NSW.
I think I’ve got pretty accurate info but I could be wrong

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 8:34am

No I don't have that either so have made a couple of assumptions.

etarip's picture
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etarip commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 8:56am

Any data on casualty rate / attrition of ICU staff in places like Italy, Spain and China? Either through fatigue or illness.
Reckon that will be a factor if it takes hold. Beds are easier than ventilators, which are easier than trained ICU staff.

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 10:14am

Quite a few doctors have died around the world, not sure exact numbers, 20+ I think.
Plus an unknown amount of other healthcare workers.
Whether or not this is disproportionately high compared to the rest of society it is hard to know.
A disproportionately high number of healthcare professionals died from SARS 2003 compared to the general population 41 out of 774 deaths

Balance's picture
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Balance commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 10:25am

40+ healthcare workers have died in Italy alone...not sure on overall number

Distracted's picture
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Distracted commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 11:03am

Craig, I reckon the ABC might be Swellnet subscriber, they’ve taken your lead and are looking into ICU rates.
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/coronavirus-covid-19-icu-beds-...

mowgli's picture
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mowgli commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 12:30pm

Word is SCUH brought in extra refrigeration trucks for morgue overflow.

I don't believe for a minute China is over this. They don't exactly have a great track record with telling the truth. There's a reason #ChineseChernobyl was trending on WeChat in January... https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-early-days-of-chinas-coronavirus-outb...

The Guardian UK did a similar piece.

Economy over health. China has been waiting for US to reach #1 shitshow status so it can use it in this on going tit-for-tat status game they've got going on.

Also...parallels with Spanish Flu in terms of government response are very enlightening. For example, look at experience of Philadelphia, St Louis, and San Francisco. The latter of which locked down, assumed things all good to open...nope second wave...lockdown...how about now?...NOPE! Third wave....

This thing is a long way from being over

“Life is a long lesson in humility.”

mowgli's picture
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mowgli commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 12:32pm

Also, University of QLD is one of 3 leading orgs at the forefront of vaccine development.

They reckon they can cut down the delivery time by up to 6 months (from 12-18) if they can get more $$$ to speed up the development, testing and manufacture phases.

Can donate here: https://www.uq.edu.au/giving/donations/fund/Coronavirus_COVID_19_Research

“Life is a long lesson in humility.”

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 3:11pm

Brendan Murphy says they have plans to triple the ICU bed capacity or even further if they have to

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 4:13pm

Murphy also said at conference today that we are still mainly getting cases from international travelers - community transmission is low but disturbing and they are quarantining and tracing these. In that respect the low amount of community transmission is better than countries with substantial outbreaks - perhaps a better chance to block the spread currently. Those cases of infected going out and not caring if they spread it to others, those people should have a word with the hero they deserve, not the hero they need right now.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 4:15pm

"My only thoughts on that is what do they mean by trace.
If you run a blacklight over a bed for example, you can see plenty of traces of activity...."

Hmmm Channels, can I borrow one of these blacklight devices to scan the sand dunes down here? - might need it in the land of Gary G.

poo-man's picture
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poo-man commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 4:43pm

Got our first ICU case in NZ today out of 360 odd. They're not saying how old but significant underlying health conditions so I suspect the CV might just tip them over. That's a pretty low ICU rate. From what TBB said is it possible that the strain down here is much weaker? Quite a few anectdotal stories floating around in the media too about people who tested positive who barely have any symptoms. Not trying to underplay it but just trying to figure out what's going to happen next in NZ

poo-man

inzider's picture
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inzider commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 5:37pm

Leta see how many people try and surf the raglan points tomorrow, forecast is pretty tasty. Raglan boardriders are telling people to stay home for the greater good. Wouldn't surprise me if some stauncher chaps around those parts do their own road closures to the points

boykee's picture
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boykee commented Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 5:57pm

You would think plenty of locals will walk in to Manu
What is it a mellow 4km Or so from town...
According to our prime minister that’s fine, just no driving